Climate Change The Move to Action AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301 -526 -8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich. edu http: //aoss. engin. umich. edu/people/rbrood Winter 2014 February 25, 2014

Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W 14 • Something I am playing with – http: //openclimate. tumblr. com/ • Assignment – Emailed – Posted Politics of Dismissal Entry Model Uncertainty Description

Projects • Fracking (Omar, Jeffrey, Austin, Megan, Ranya) – With the recent technological advances in hydraulic fracturing, the U. S. has become the world’s largest producer of oil and is projected to become an exporter of natural gas. Natural gas has been posed as a “bridge fuel” to displace coal in the production of electricity, and to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide. As a policy advisor on climate change, I need to know whether or not a transition to natural gas serves to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases and the impact on water resources. I am especially concerned about the leakage of methane and huge amount of water that is required. I have another team working on public health effects air quality and water quality are out of your domain.

Projects • Agricultural (Edwin, Rachel, Kathleen, Chris) – The accounting of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture is difficult. I have read that something like 30% of the total emissions are agriculturally related. This requires that those emissions used in, say, fertilizer manufacturing are accounted in agriculture rather than industry. Recently, I read a blog http: //www. wunderground. com/blog/Ricky. Rood/greenhouseemissions-of-agriculture that said there was one group who claimed all by itself, livestock was responsible for more than 52% of the emissions. This seems enormous and challenges many conventional strategies for greenhouse gas management. The CEO of my company has announced a sustainability effort, and I want to know what decisions my food manager can make the matter to climate change, including water resources. Should I emphasize vegetarian meals, or is it better to buy local, “sustainable, ” or organic?

Projects • Air Travel (Meng, Arnav, Mason, John, Justin) – There is no doubt that airplanes emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Air travel is an important part of the economy. When I read about air travel and climate impacts, the information is complicated. Often the discussion ends with the admission that there are not obvious options to make air travel and transport “sustainable” in the sense of climate change. The European Union has been considering a way to reduce emissions from air travel. Their efforts have only revealed even more complexity in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft. In order to know how much priority to give to sustainable air travel in my research and development portfolio, I need a knowledge-based assessment of the impact of air travel on climate, risks associated with “doing nothing” and the viable strategies for making air travel “sustainable. ”

Summary Points: Science Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets Concept of “Forcing” Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Prediction Earth Will Warm Validation Evaluation Consequences Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change

This lecture • “Current Climate” • Introduction to Attribution – Fingerprinting – Joint Attribution (end-to-end method) – Event attribution

Current Climate • Rood Blog “Just Temperature” • For surface air temperature for the entire globe, take a 100 year, 1900 -1999, average of each month. Subtract the current month from that average. When was the last month below average? February 1985

Time series of February

Winter 2014 • It’s been very cold here in Winter 2014. • Why is it so cold if the world is warming? • How do you analyze this fact, and respond to this question?

Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly

January 2014 in Perspective • U. S. : 53 rd coolest, 5 th driest • Global 4 th Warmest

January 2014: Global Temperature

Important modes of Internal Variability

El Nino – La Nina

The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. – http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/oa/ncdc. html • State of the Climate: Global • Plant Hardiness - 2012

This lecture • “Current Climate” • Introduction to Attribution – Fingerprinting – Joint Attribution (end-to-end method) – Event attribution

Question • Madden and Ramanathan Predicted in 1980 would be discernable in 2000. • What would you do to evaluate theory and predictions of global warming? – Surface of planet will warm – Sea level will rise – Weather will change • Think about • • Measurements Feedbacks Correlative behavior Impacts

Signal to Noise From Leeds X-ray Imaging

Signal to Noise (perhaps more like climate) From social research methods. net

Signal to Noise (another example) Noise Signal / Noise Ratio From astronomy and astrophysics. org

Some signal to noise issues • We have many sources of variability – Sun, volcanoes, etc. – El Nino, La Nina, etc. – Ice ages, Little Ice Age, Warm Periods, etc. – Land use changes, natural carbon dioxide variability, etc. – How do we detect a trend in temperature and attribute it to human released carbon dioxide?

Let’s go back to the physical climate

Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2. 5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www. ncdc. noaa. gov/bams-state-of-climate /.

Edges and Accumulation • “Edges” are places where we really might be able to see things definitively. What are the edges? – Ice (Phase transition) – Deserts – Seasons • Accumulation of heat

There are many observations • Physical and biological impacts correlated with temperature increase and dryer conditions. – What is the relationship between warming and surface dryness? – Strongly correlated with population and where we have looked.

Project Budburst • A community science activity collect observations of the onset of spring – Project Budburst • How to observe the onset of spring – National Phenology Network

Project of Trees • A community science activity to collect observations on types of trees – Canadian Plant Hardiness Site • Paper (including yours truly) on how foresters think about climate change – Mc. Kenney et al. (2011)

Interestingly significant news story

Hardiness Map • Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones • Plant Hardiness - 2012

Can we get a global perspective from satellites? • NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index – Looks at radiative budgets, measurements, and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, relative to the rest of the radiation.

How would these changes be revealed? · Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through 1. changes in growing season 2. changes in “productivity” Increases in growing season delayed fall earlier spring Jan Jul Aug NDVI Dec Increases in Productiviy Increase Jan Jul Aug NDVI From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard Dec

From Kirsten de Beures

Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University

Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve (Keeling et al, 1996) Amplitude has increased 40% in Alaska, Canada Amplitude has increased 20% in Hawaii The phase, start of the decrease, start of the growing season, has moved forward 7 days.

Geographical extent of warming Osborn Spatial Extent of Warming

Coherent and Convergent? • There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming. • This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems. • Taken independently each piece could be challenged. • Taken together the evidence converges. – Consistent with human-related forcing

Coherent and Convergent? • Taken independently each piece could be challenged. • Taken together the evidence converges. – Consistent with human-related forcing • Consistent with human-related forcing – Really?

This lecture • “Current Climate” • Introduction to Attribution – Fingerprinting – Joint Attribution (end-to-end method) – Event attribution

Attribution • The physical climate and ecological observations in the previous are consistent with the planet is warming. • How do we decide that this is consistent with human-induced warming?

Natural mechanisms influence climate Natural mechanisms • Changes in the Sun • Changes in the amount of volcanic dust in the atmosphere • Internal variability of the coupled atmosphere and ocean Thanks to Ben Santer for Content!

Thanks to Ben Santer for Content! Human factors also influence climate Non-natural mechanisms • Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases • Changes in aerosol particles from burning fossil fuels and biomass • Changes in the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth’s surface Smoke from fires in Guatemala and Mexico (May 14, 1998)

Recent changes in carbon dioxide are largely human-induced Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas produced by human activities Atmospheric CO 2 has increased from a preindustrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to 379 390 ppm in 2005 2010 The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 in 2010 exceeds by far the natural range (180 to 300 ppm) over the last 650, 000 years Fossil fuel use is the primary source of the increased concentration of CO 2 since the preindustrial period Thanks to Ben Santer for Content! Source: IPCC AR 4 (2007)

Thanks to Ben Santer for Content! Multiple lines of evidence on which “discernible human influence” conclusions are based 1. “Basic physics” evidence – Physical understanding of the climate system and the heat-trapping properties of greenhouse gases 2. Circumstantial evidence – Qualitative agreement between observed climate changes and model predictions of human-caused climate changes (warming of oceans, land surface, and troposphere, stratospheric cooling, water vapor increases, etc. ) 3. Paleoclimate evidence – Temperature reconstructions enable us to place the warming of the 20 th century in a longer-term context 4. Fingerprint evidence – Rigorous statistical comparisons between modeled and observed patterns of climate change

Average surface temperature change (°C) Models can perform the “control experiment” that we can’t do in the real world Meehl et al. , J. Climate (2004)

arch What is “climate fingerprinting”? • Strategy: climate change (the “fingerprint”) in observed climate records • Assumption: Each factor that influences climate has a different characteristic signature in climate records • Method: • Advantage: Fingerprinting allows researchers to make rigorous tests of competing hypotheses regarding the causes of recent climate change Standard signal processing techniques Thanks to Ben Santer for Content!

IPCC Temperature Observations Note: It gets smoother away from the surface.

Height (km) 4. Ozone Height (km) 5. Sulfate aerosol particles Pressure (h. Pa) 3. Well-mixed greenhouse gases 2. Volcanoes Pressure (h. Pa) 1. Solar Pressure (h. Pa) Different factors that influence climate have different “fingerprints” 6. 1 st five factors combined Santer et al. , CCSP, 2007 °C/century

“Fingerprinting” with temperature changes in Earth’s atmosphere Height (km) Pressure (h. Pa) Model Changes: CO 2 + Sulfate Aerosols + Stratospheric Ozone Height (km) Pressure (h. Pa) Observed Changes Temperature changes in o. C Santer et al. , Nature (1996)

Searching for fingerprints of human activities in the world’s oceans • Initial work by Syd Levitus and colleagues showed an increase in the heat content of the oceans over the second half of the 20 th century (Levitus et al. , 2001, Science) • Subsequent research by Tim Barnett and colleagues identified a human fingerprint in the observed ocean heat content changes (Barnett et al. , 2001, Science) Thanks to Ben Santer for Content!

“Fingerprinting” in the ocean: Warming of the North Atlantic over 1955 -99 Thanks to Ben Santer for Content! Barnett et al. , Science (2005)

“Fingerprinting” in the ocean: Warming of the world’s oceans over 1955 -99 Thanks to Ben Santer for Content! Barnett et al. , Science (2005)

Fingerprint detection explained pictorially…. Thanks to Ben Santer for Content! Time-varying observed patterns t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4 t=n Projection onto model fingerprint Signal and noise time series Time-varying control run patterns t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4 t=n Model fingerprint Projection onto model fingerprint Signal-to-noise ratios

Human-caused fingerprints have been identified in many different aspects of the climate system Thanks to Ben Santer for Content! Surface specific humidity Water vapor over oceans Tropospheric temperatures Stratospheric temperatures Tropopause height Ocean temperatures Sea-level pressure Atmospheric temperature Zonal-mean rainfall Near-surface temperature Continental runoff

Key results of IPCC AR 4: We are now able to identify human influences on climate at continental scales Continental warming likely shows a significant anthropogenic contribution over the past 50 years Thanks to Ben Santer for Content!

This lecture • “Current Climate” • Introduction to Attribution – Fingerprinting – Joint Attribution (end-to-end method) • Rosenzweig et al. , Nature, 2008 – Event attribution

Global distribution of changes sensitive to temperature IPCC Technical Summary WG 2

Summary from Rosenzweig et al. , Nature, 2008 • • • shrinking glaciers in every continent melting permafrost shifts in the spring peak of river discharge associated with earlier snowmelt lake and river warming with effects on thermal stratification, chemistry and freshwater organisms increases in coastal erosion • • shifts in spring events (for example, leaf unfolding, blooming date, migration and time of reproduction), species distributions and community structure demonstrated changes in marineecosystem functioning and productivity, including shifts from cold-adapted to warm adapted communities, phenological changes and alterations in species interactions

Joint attribution • What would you do to evaluate theory and predictions of global warming? – Surface of planet will warm – Sea level will rise – Weather will change • Think about • • Measurements Feedbacks Correlative behavior Impacts • Joint Attribution • Documented statistical analysis • Process-level understanding

Joint attribution • Joint Attribution – Documented statistical analysis – Process-level understanding • Look to see for biological systems – Unlikely due entirely to natural variability – Consistent with estimated responses of physical or biological variables – Non consistent with alternative, plausible explanations • That are in regions where physical variables, esp. temperature, can also be attributed to climate change • Consist with behavior of models run with and without carbon dioxide increase

Rosenzweig et al. , Nature, 2008

This lecture • “Current Climate” • Introduction to Attribution – Fingerprinting – Joint Attribution (end-to-end method) • Rosenzweig et al. , Nature, 2008 – Event attribution

Event Attribution • Barriopedro et al. , Russian Heat Wave, Science, 2011 • Dole et al. , Russian Heat Wave, GRL, 2011 • Rahmstorf, Increase of Extreme Events, PNAS, 2011 • Shearer and Rood, Earthzine, 2011

Communication

Iconic and Fundamental Figures

Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEAT EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE BALANCE

Sun-Earth System in Balance SUN EARTH PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH The addition to the blanket is CO 2 FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE BALANCE

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

Temperature and CO 2: The last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. q Medieval warm period q “Little ice age” q Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350, 000 years.

The Earth System SUN CLOUD-WORLD ATMOSPHERE ICE (cryosphere) OCEAN LAND

Radiation Balance Figure

Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)

1998 Climate Forcing (-2. 7, -0. 6) 2001 Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001) (-3. 7, 0. 0)