Climate Change The Move to Action AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 501) Richard B. Rood 734 -647 -3530 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich. edu http: //aoss. engin. umich. edu. /people/rbrood Winter 2008 February 19, 2008

Class Basics • A ctools site for all – AOSS 480 001 W 08 • This is the official repository for lectures • Email climateaction@ctools. umich. edu • Class Web Site and Wiki – Climate Change: The Move to Action – Winter 2008 Term • Wunderground Climate Page – Posted Introduction of the New Rough Guide – My recent series on models

Lectures coming up • http: //www. snre. umich. edu/events

Readings on Local Servers • Assigned – Brooks: Framework for Understanding Vulnerability and Adaptive Ability Of Interest – Eakin: Building Adaptive Capacity • A basic reference – Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Web Portal

Quik. Climate AOSS 605 • Meet in Space Research Building, 4: 30, February 19, 2008, Room TBD. – Lounge in front of auditorium.

Projects • Projects discussion – What topics are being discussed? – Are groups organizing? – Present a prospectus?

Outline of Lecture • Climate change and society – Impacts based approach – Knowledge based approach • Value systems and rationality • Relation of climate change to, say, energy and agriculture – Conflicting interests • Mitigation and Adaptation • Formalizing the approach to adaptation – Social justice

Coherent and Convergent? • There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming. • This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems. • Taken independently each piece could be challenged. • Taken together the evidence converges. – Consistent with human-related forcing

Climate Change Motivates Concern? NO Greenhouse Effect (Observation and Theory) PREDICT consequential rise in global temperature / Rapid enough to disrupt society and commerce Observations of the past. / Large and small climate shifts. / Relation between CO 2 and Temperature Rapid CO 2 increase / Comparable to ice age – temperate difference Should we be concerned ? YES

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS NO PREDICT consequential rise in global temperature / Rapid enough to disrupt society and commerce Should we be concerned ? YES HEAT SEA LEVEL RISE WATER ECOSYSTEMS WEATHER

IMPACTS ON KEY HUMAN ACTIVITIES NO Anticipate consequential rise in global temperature / Rapid enough to disrupt society and commerce Should we be concerned ? Even if you think “NO, ” you will be impacted. YES HEAT SEA LEVEL RISE WATER WEATHER ECOSYSTEMS “BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH ENERGY AGRICULTURE

INTERACTIONS WITH HUMAN BEHAVIOR SEA LEVEL RISE HEAT WATER WEATHER ECOSYSTEMS “BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH ENERGY MORE RELIGION AGRICULTURE MORE POLICY SOCIAL JUSTICE LAW

WHAT WE JUST DID • Took the direction of climate change impacts and how it is likely to influence our societies. – Through impact on natural resources. – That impact health, food, economy. – That motivate and form policy and law. – That are directed by beliefs and ethics.

This impacts-based approach stands in contrast to the past knowledge based approach • Until the last year or so, climate change was broadly debated on the presumed knowledge of predictions.

Based on scientific investigation SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

How we interpret the results of that investigation Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE National Religious Partnership for the Environment

Which relies on how we get out information Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Which does influence scientific investigation Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

It all gets stirred together Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

And different communities have intrinsic interests RELIGION POLICY “BUSINESS” ECONOMICS PUBLIC HEALTH ENERGY LAW SOCIAL JUSTICE Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences) Security Food Environmental National RELIGION Societal Success Standard of Living . . . ? ? ? . . . POLICY “BUSINESS” ECONOMICS PUBLIC HEALTH ENERGY ? ? ? SOCIAL JUSTICE Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Impacts versus knowledge-based approach • They get to the same place: – Impacts is more tangible. It directly impacts people, resources, and economies. It is more reactionary. – Knowledge based is less tangible, does not have the “proof” of impacts. It is more anticipatory. • These are conflicting subcultures – Valuation of knowledge – Valuation of commerce – Valuation of social justice

A little time for transition • Time to think and talk? • Hold these notions in mind as we seek to find the tensions in the projects that we define. • It is good to place some tension in the project teams. – It’s real. – It strengthens results. – It moves problems out of the realm of academia

Climate Change Relationships • Energy use and climate change have a special relationship. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY

Energy and Climate Change • Our primary source of energy, burning fossil fuels, is the primary cause of climate change. • Energy is a resource that is extremely stressed. • Use of energy is strongly correlated with societal success. • Societal success is in our best interests.

Energy and Climate Change • To address climate change requires us to approach energy in a fundamentally different way. – Fundamental • Stresses on energy, energy security, can be addressed in ways that do not address climate change. • The impact of climate change, environmental security, on society is perceived as being less urgent than energy security. • And energy security is crucial to societal success, which can be change in stunningly short amounts of time.

Short-term versus long-term • This is a classic short-term versus longterm problem. – Ethics – Economics – React versus anticipation • Knowledge base versus business base?

Climate Change Relationships CLIMATE CHANGE SOCIETAL SUCCESS • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION

SOCIETAL SUCCESS Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION WATER RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURE PUBLIC HEALTH

Climate change relations • All of these issues, and they are big issues, carry a relationship to each other. Set energy and climate change at the center. Then, say, agriculture carries both dependent and independent relationships with climate change and energy.

Predictions motivate action How should we respond to the predictions? Must remember that the climate problem is currently entwined with energy sources, energy use. Energy use touches every part of society. Societal success. Standard of living.

For example: At the individual level cheap energy might be the choice. Impact on agriculture Drought-flood Moisture stress More insects Longer growing season COST OF ENERGY DOUBLE CROP COST OF WATER / INSECTICIDE

For example: Or whole sector might change its focus because there is money to be made in energy Impact on agriculture ENERGY PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTION ENERGY SECURITY FOOD SECURITY NATIONAL SECURITY GLOBAL TRADE

Predictions motivate action How should we respond to the predictions? How we respond depends very much on the current capabilities of the society or nation Rich, technologically advanced Resource rich, desiring richness Ethics // Equality // Liability Poor, low technologically

Return to the mitigation-adaptation framework

Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework It’s not an either / or argument. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere.

Some definitions • Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. • Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. • Resilience: The ability to adapt. • Geo-engineering: The notion that we can manage the balance of total energy of the atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land to yield a stable climate in the presence of changing greenhouse gases.

Thinking about ADAPTATION • Adaptation: What people might do to reduce harm of climate change, or make themselves best able to take advantage of climate change. – Autonomous that people do by themselves – Can be encouraged by public policy • Command control tell you to do it • Incentives • Subsidies – Can be anticipatory or reactive • Adaptation is local; it is self help. • Adaptation has short time constants - at least compared to mitigation Hence people see the need to pay for it. • Some amount of autonomous-reactive adaptation will take place. – Moving villages in Alaska

Thinking about MITIGATION • Mitigation: Things we do to reduce greenhouse gases – Reduce emissions – Increase sinks • • Mitigation is for the global good Mitigation has slow time constants Mitigation is anticipatory policy This is the “second” environmental problem we have faced with a global flavor. – Ozone is the first one. Is this a good model?

About the Global Good • from the world of business. . . – Corporate Strategies for Climate Change Andrew Hoffman, Pew, 2006 • Global good without benefit to the bottom line profit is a poor motivator. – Coupled with benefit to the bottom line great motivator

About the Global Good • from the world of faith. . . – Faith Community • Global good from a perspective that might be independent of the bottom line profit

Some Mitigation-Adaptation considerations • Those who are rich and technologically advanced generally favor adaptation; they feel they can handle it – Plus, technology will continue to make fossil fuel cheap, but with great(er) release of CO 2 • Those who are poor and less technologically advanced generally advocate mitigation and sharing of adaptation technology • Emission scenarios don’t matter for the next 50 years. • There a lot of arguments, based on economics, that lead towards adaptation – Mitigation always looks expensive, perhaps economically risky, on the time scale of 50 years. • Adaptation looks easier because we will know more • This will remain true as long as the consequences seem incremental and modest – The Innovators Dilemma, evolution vs revolution?

Responses to the Climate Change Problem Autonomous/ Individual Policy/ Societal Reactive Anticipatory Adaptation Mitigation

Short-term versus long-term • We return to the short-term versus longterm tension. • This is a classic short-term versus longterm problem. – Ethics – Economics – React versus anticipation • Knowledge base versus business base?

Return to Mitigation-Adaptation • Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. • Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. • Resilience: The ability to adapt. • Think about the impacts on people: – Formalize or quantify?

Vulnerability • the interface between exposure to physical threats and the capacity of systems to resist, cope or adapt to such threats. • Reducing vulnerability: identifying points of intervention in the causal change between hazard and human consequences. Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Impacts (Hazards) Ø extreme events move to the top Ø variation in climate patterns Ø Cause: storms, dry climate Ø Outcome: floods, mudslides, drought, fire etc. Ø External or intrinsic sources of vulnerability Ø for example, “place” Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Physical/Biophysical Vulnerability (risk) Ø Exposure: amount of (potential) damage caused to a system by a particular climate-related event or hazard Ø Vulnerability = I( impacts) – R (resilience) Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Social Vulnerability (vulnerability/sensitivity) Ø is a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard event ØAn inherent property of a system arising from its internal characteristics (e. g. poverty, inequality, entitlements, institutional landscape, etc) ØGeneric and specific Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Physical/Biophysical Vulnerability (risk) Ø IPCC: Vulnerability is a function of ƒ( hazard, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Adaptive capacity ‘‘The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. ’’ (IPCC 2001). Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Determinates of Adaptive Capacity Determinant: Encompasses: Human capital Knowledge (scientific, “local”, technical, political), education levels, health, individual risk perception, labor Information & Technology Communication networks, freedom of expression, technology transfer and data exchange, innovation capacity, early warning systems, technological relevance Material resources and infrastructure Transport, water infrastructure, buildings, sanitation, energy supply and management, environmental quality Organization and social capital State-civil society relations, local coping networks, social mobilization, density of institutional relationships Political capital Modes of governance, leadership legitimacy, participation, decentralization, decision and management capacity, sovereignty Wealth & financial capital Income and wealth distribution, economic marginalization, accessibility and availability of financial instruments (insurance, credit), fiscal incentives for risk management Institutions and entitlements Informal and formal rules for resource conservation, risk management, regional planning, participation, information dissemination, technological innovation, property rights and risk sharing mechanisms Eakin and Lemos 2006 Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Sensitivity • Sensitivity: different geographical scales, time scales, degrees of exposure and levels of predictability Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Resilience • Ability of people and societies to mitigate, cope and adapt to hazard • Highly variable among countries, groups, gender, etc. • Coping capacity: “combination of all the natural and social characteristics and resources available in a particular location that are used to reduce the impacts of hazards” (UNDP Report). • “internal” processes, entitlements, income access to resources, institutional and market structures Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

What is the connection between human induced environmental change and vulnerability? • Human induced changes have reduced the environment’s capacity to absorb the impacts of change and to deliver the goods and services to satisfy human needs. • Global climate change is likely to exacerbate the severity and frequency of impacts • Examples: mudslides, land-use change, coastal degradation, etc Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Some evaluation • Adaptive capacity, resilience, etc. , vary widely from country to country. Depends on exposure, but largely dependent on wealth. • Wealth is largely related to energy use. • Brings up issues of social justice

Climate Injustice “Those who use too much of the carbon dioxide absorption capacity of the world’s oceans, vegetation and soil owe a debt to all living creatures whose habitat is threatened. They owe a particular debt to the carbon creditors, the poor of the South who use less than their fair share of the CO 2 absorption capacity. The poor and Indigenous peoples, are among those who are likely to suffer the most severe effects of … climate change. These consequences of global warming are another manifestation of environmental racism. ” (Ecumenical Coalition for Economic Justice 2001) Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemo

Who are the debtors? The energy case The environmental impacts caused by the extraction of natural resources necessary for the production of energy are not compensated in any form Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos Amigos de la Tierra Int. y Acción Ecológica 2002.

Undernourishment: Compare to energy use Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

The Result of Global Inequality is Gross Carbon Inequality World Average CO 2 Emissions Per Capita, 2000: 1. 56 Tons Rich countries emit around 2. 5 -6 metric tons carbon annually person, while the middle income nations are around 0. 6 m. T and the poorest around 0. 02 m. T Source: Boden, 2003 Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

If we want to measure ability to adapt • We must – Measuring social and cultural processes – Data availability and reproduction – Trade-off between model that better depict reality and usable policy tools – Consideration of equity and ethical issues Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Scale • What is the best scale to measure vulnerability and adaptive capacity? – National: • inform states on needed policy response; allow for better decision making; allows for comparison of differential vulnerability – Regional • Impacts are likely not to be defined by national borders – Local • Ground truth • Allows for the understanding of the local factors that mediate sensitivity and resilience Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Brooks, Adger and Kelly (2005) Global Environmental Change • risk = hazard x vulnerability • Risk: numbers of people killed by climate-related disaster per decade per national population. Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Significant variables (1) population with access to sanitation, (2) literacy rate, 15– 24 -year olds, (3) maternal mortality, (4) literacy rate, over 15 years, (5) calorific intake, (6) voice and accountability, (7) civil liberties, (8) political rights, (9) government effectiveness, (10) literacy ratio (female to male), (11) life expectancy at birth. Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Most Vulnerable Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos

The points • When we start to consider the impact of climate change and how to respond we – Faced with the existing situation, without regard to climate change – Are immediately brought to the capabilities and practices of societies and cultures – Response is, largely, non-scientific – There are important issues of social justice and liability

The End