Climate Change The Move to Action AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood / Kevin Reed Winter 2014 April 10, 2014

Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W 14 • Something I am playing with – http: //openclimate. tumblr. com/ • Project Presentations – April 22 nd … – Final Slide Package and Narrative • April 28, 2014 11: 59 pm Politics of Dismissal Entry Model Uncertainty Description

The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. – http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/oa/ncdc. html • State of the Climate: Global

Today: Planning and Uncertainty • Planning Scenario • Uncertainty • Extremes Again – What Are Extreme Events? – Are They Changing? – Will Extremes Differ With ‘Climate Change’? • Communication

Uncertainty Discussion • How uncertain do you think climate science is? • What seems most uncertain to you? • Is this uncertainty small enough to motivate action, or is it so large that action is risky? • Is better communication of uncertainty what stands between us and doing something? • Is reducing uncertainty critical?

Take this scenario • You are asked to be the climate person of a project to – Forest management in a Great Lakes National Park – Flood management in a city in New England • How would you start frame this problem? • What would you say about uncertainty?

Brainstorm / Skills / Knowledge • Motivation • Convincing • Data – Past, future • Impacts • Uncertainty

Precipitation Extreme Events in U. S.

Basic physics of temperature ncrease is very simple, noncontroversial. This represents the uncertainties in the observations Note: There i consistency from many models, man scenarios, that there wil be warming. (1. 5 – 5. 5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100!

Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Motivates policy Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted 1) Uncertainty always exists 2) New uncertainties will be revealed 3) Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging Policy

Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Motivates policy Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Policy 1) Uncertainty always exists 2) New uncertainties will be revealed 3) Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.

The Uncertainty Fallacy • That the systematic reduction of scientific uncertainty will lead to development of policy is a fallacy. – Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging. – That is – this is a political issue • Practitioners more often want uncertainty descriptions and context-based descriptions rather than quantification.

Attribution • How do we know climate change, the warming planet, is due carbon dioxide?

Scientists and Uncertainty for Decision Makers • Scenario Uncertainty: How much CO 2 we will emit. • Model Uncertainty: Weaknesses of model to represent physical, chemical and biological processes. • Internal Variability: Variability of the climate, not related to human-made changes.

NRC Modeling Report: Uncertainty UNCERTAINTY Uncertainty is fundamental to all scientific investigations, and many scientific experiments are designed solely to quantify the uncertainty (e. g. , in order to place bounds on observational requirements). Many enterprises have embraced the fact that uncertainty exists and have developed methods for operating and decision making under uncertainty. Uncertainty, in its most general definition, refers to lack of knowledge, or imperfect knowledge about specific quantities (e. g. , speed of light), or the behavior of a system (e. g. , the climate system). Because there is often a random component to uncertainty, it is usually broken down into two basic types: aleatory(randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge about something that is in principle knowable). With respect to climate modeling, both types of uncertainty are highly relevant. Uncertainty in climate modeling has been discussed in many contexts (e. g. , Hawkins and Sutton, 2009; IPCC, 2007 c; Palmer et al. , 2005). The main uncertainties discussed are value uncertainty (e. g. , uncertainty in data such as observations needed for model development and evaluation), structural uncertainty (e. g. , incomplete understanding of processes or how to model them), and unpredictability (chaotic components of the complex system).

Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • Lack of knowledge or imperfect knowledge • Two categories? – Aleatory: Dependent upon chance / randomness – Epistimic : Knowledge based / could be knowable

Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • “Climate Scientists” – Value uncertainty – Structural uncertainty – Predictability

Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • “Climate Scientists” through eyes of a model practitioner – Scientific goal to get answer for the right reason rather than get the right number • Sources of Uncertainty – – – Boundary conditions Initial conditions Structural formulation of physics Parametric uncertainty Numerical formulation Downscaling and scaling noise

Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • Rood in a Do. E Strategy Document – Quantifying primary variable uncertainty (e. g. , temperature) and integrated responses (e. g. , sea-level rise) and presenting this information in a way suitable for risk analysis. – Addressing uncertainty related to biases and misrepresentation of the variability of multiscale, coupled processes and phenomena in climate models (e. g. , mean state tropical biases and sea ice).

Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • Rood in a Do. E Strategy Document – Addressing uncertainty related to mechanisms and processes known to be missing from climate models (e. g. , ice sheet models and groundwater flow). – Exploring uncertainty related to specification of emission scenarios and, more generally, human enterprise.

Some Uncertainty References • Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Uncertainty Best Practices Communicating, 2009 • Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Transportation Gulf Coast, 2008 • Moss and Schneider, Uncertainty Reporting, 2000 • Pidgeon and Fischhoff, Communicating Uncertainty, 2011 • Lemos and Rood, Uncertainty Fallacy, 2010 • NRC Advancing Climate Modeling: Chapter 6 • Briley et al. , Process Uncertainty, 2014 (in revision) • Tang and Dessai, Usable Science, 2012

Today: Planning and Uncertainty • Planning Scenario • Uncertainty • Extremes Again – What Are Extreme Events? – Are They Changing? – Will Extremes Differ With ‘Climate Change’? • Communication

Extreme Weather Events

What is an Extreme? • Categorizing an event as “extreme” is a somewhat arbitrary procedure. – What is extreme at one space and time may be typical at another. – Extremes are at the tails of the distribution. How is “tail” defined? – Does extreme mean “rare” or simply high impact? � • Generalized Extreme Value Theory US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

What is an Extreme? • Extremes are a natural component of a stable climate. • However, there are costs! US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

Trends Temperature Precipitation NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

Trends – Tornadoes? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

Trends – Snow? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

Trends – Tropical Cyclones? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

Trends – Tropical Cyclones? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

Trends - Issues • Data reliability – Technology, Coverage • Natural Variability • Regional Distributions • Is there an anthropogenic signature?

Trends • 2011 was a record-breaking year for Climate Extremes

2011 Extremes • 14 Events of >$1 Billion in Damage • Effective Communication? NOAA News

2011 Extremes NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

2011 Extremes - Ranks NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

U. S. Climate Extreme Index CEI NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

Communication • This is one agency’s (NOAA) at communicating extreme events and trends to the public? • Is one of the figures particularly effective? • As a whole? • Other sources: – NOAA – Extreme Weather 2011 – Natural Resources Defense Council – Wunderground – Expert Blogs

How Might Extremes Change? US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

How Might Extremes Change? • Changes may be more complex IPCC SREX

Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

Projected Precipitation Changes US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

Possible Changes in Hurricanes Can be basin specific! Emanuel (2007) Holland Webster (2007)

Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate • In general, similar to IPCC AR 4 and IPCC SREX results. • Specific to North America. US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

Importance? • For U. S. • Cost are increasing for many reasons: – Population growth – Where people live – Changes in extremes (as shown) – Vulnerability (building codes) US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

IPCC Special Report on Extremes

Are These Reports Effective? • There are differences in the presentation of information. • Is one more effective than another? • What are the strengths? • Room for improvement? • How is it different when compared to IPCC AR 4?

Example: Hurricanes Fractional Change • Strong storms, but less globally. Zhao et al. (2009)

Example: Hurricanes • This is important because: Meyer et al. (1997)

Example: Hurricanes • Also… adaptation… US CCSP Report 3. 3 - 2008

Example: Heat Waves • Barriopedro et al. , Russian Heat Wave, Science, 2011 • Dole et al. , Russian Heat Wave, GRL, 2011 • Rahmstorf, Increase of Extreme Events, PNAS, 2011 • Shearer and Rood, Earthzine, 2011

Example: Heat Waves • 2010 Russian Heat Wave They see no signal of the role anthropogenic sources Dole et al. 2011

Example: Heat Waves • Potential for Future Russian Heat Waves Scientific Debates Dole et al. 2011

Example: Heat Waves • European Heat Waves (1500 -2100) 2 500 -year events in last decade! Barriopedro et al. 2011

Example: Heat Waves

More Communication • These case studies demonstrate that there is an attempt to ‘simplify’, or communicate the science to the public, in the reports that we have read in class. • NCAR – Atmos. News – http: //www 2. ucar. edu/atmosnews/attributi on/steroids-baseball-climate-change – Deliberate attempt to increase communication with public.

• “It’s not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability. Nowadays, there’s always an element of both. ” Kevin Trenberth – NCAR

Shearer and Rood (2011) • Scientist are part of the conversation… should help frame better questions. • Two different realities, natural and the anthropogenically changed… this does not exist. • “The result is that scientific debates that were historically carried out in the slow deliberations of peer-reviewed journals are now on public display and can be misrepresented. ”