Climate Change The Move to Action AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301 -526 -8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich. edu http: //aoss. engin. umich. edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 27, 2012

Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W 12 • 2008 and 2010 Class On Line: – http: //climateknowledge. org/classes/index. php /Climate_Change: _The_Move_to_Action

Project Timeline • 22 and 27 March 2012 – In Class Review: Each group should prepare about a 15 minute, 5 – 10 slides, of status of project. Projects will be in different stages, but should have a good idea of the scope and where you are going. This will be a time get some input and refine and focus. – This need not be polished, but should represent vision, structure, and some essential elements of knowledge. • 10 and 12 April 2012: Final presentation

The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. – http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/oa/ncdc. html • State of the Climate: Global • Interesting new document? – OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

Subjects that need covering • • • Stabilization Military Interface to adaptation Geo-engineering Sea Level Elements of Argument

Today • Some issues of Defense and National Security • In previous informal polls of THIS class, the students concluded that the catalyst that would motivate the U. S. on climate change would be national security related to international instability.

Reference Material • 2007: National Security and Climate Change, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2009: National Security Energy and Climate, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2010: Quadrennial Defense Review • 2012: Security and Water Resources

NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010

Thread through recent defense security arguments • Defense-related Think Tank: Center for Data Analysis • Quadrennial Defense Review • Strong link of energy to Department of Defense activities • Intelligence Reviews

Approach • What are the security risks? • Which affect American interests? • What actions should America take? • Ultimately focus on integrated impacts

An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CLIMATE SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS ENERGY CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY Fragmented Policy INTEGRATED IIMPACTS PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE ?

Basic Findings (1) • Increase scale of weather-related ecological and human disruptions: “sustained natural and human disasters on a scale far beyond what we see today. ” • Disruption: remember we are in balance, disruption and uncertainty are major players in defense and markets

Basic Findings (2) • Threat Multiplier – Esp. Middle East, Africa, Asia – Food production, public health, clean water – Large migrations – Failed states

Basic Findings (3) • To Developed World – Increased pressure from immigration – Increase use of resources to respond to humanitarian disasters • Interplay between National Security, Energy Dependence – Increase vulnerability to single natural events and terrorism

Basic Recommendations (1) • Climate change needs to be integrated into defense strategy • U. S. should work more strongly to mitigate the impacts of climate change • U. S. should help build adaptive capacity and resilience in the developing world

Basic Recommendations (2) • U. S. Department of Defense should aggressively pursue energy efficiency and alternative energy • U. S. should assess impact of climate change on assets – Sea level rise – Extreme events – Assets in low lying islands

Quadrennial Defense Review • Change of operating environment – Geopolitical impacts: Instability of fragile nations – Humanitarian efforts – Environmental security • Impact on assets – National Intelligence Survey in 2008: 30 installations already face sea level threats • Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program • Energy efficiency and alternative energy

Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change Task Force Energy • Challenges – When, is important. (2020, 2030, … ) – Changing geography – Arctic Maritime (clear for 4 weeks @ 2035, 3 months @ 2050 ) • Commerce in shipping – Water and resource scarcity – Sea level rise impact on installations

Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change Task Force Energy • Opportunities – Cooperative partnerships – Energy security – Infrastructure recapitalization

Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change Task Force Energy • Wild cards – Abrupt climate change (Fast changes, jumps from one to another. ) – Geoengineering – Ocean Acidification

Political risks • “In the international context, political risk derives from the perceived legitimacy of our actions and the resulting impact on the ability and will of allies and partners to support shared goals. In the domestic context, political risk relates to public support of national strategic priorities and the associated resource requirements in the near term, midterm, and long term. ”

Climate Change Case Studies? • • • Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011 Russian heat wave and drought 2010 Texas drought and heat 2011 The 2011 Japanese earthquake The Arab Spring – Markets – Relation to energy

Elements of the Political Argument

PA 1: Just a Theory • A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory, equating theory with conjecture. – Theory is not conjecture, it is testable. • Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system, governed by quantitative conservation equations. – Theory is not fact, it can and will change. – Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that theory might be wrong. • Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory. – True, and theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by Newton. – True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity, there are “why” questions. – Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein did. • Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example, to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some confidence.

PA 2: Greenhouse Effect • This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable. – Habitable? Water exists in all three phases? • Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural greenhouse gases. • Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces of CO 2 cannot be important. – Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative humidity. ) – This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we have co-evolved with that are important. • Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.

PA 3: What happens to this CO 2 • A “new” political argument: CO 2 from fossil fuels is small compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True. But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the excess CO 2, the CO 2 on the margin that comes from fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere. • There are 8. 6 Petagrams C per year emitted – 3. 5 Pg C stay in atmosphere – 2. 3 Pg C go into the ocean – 3. 0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems • Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification – Lal, Carbon Sequestration, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc 2008 • It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.

PA 4: Cycles • Some say that there are cycles, they are natural, they are inevitable, they show that human have no influence. – Cycles? yes natural? Yes • Inevitable There are forces beyond our control – We can determine what causes cycle; they are not supernatural • Greenhouse gases change • “Life” is involved ocean and land biology • Humans are life This is the time humans release CO 2

PA 4: Cycles CO 2 and T • At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature starts to go up before CO 2; hence, T increase is unrelated to CO 2 – Need to think about time and balance here … • There are sources of T and CO 2 variability other than the radiative greenhouse gas effect. – If CO 2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change temperature beyond other sources of variability? – If T increases, there could be CO 2 increases associated with, for instance, release from solution in the ocean – CO 2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive die off of trees, volcanoes have to count, know the balance.

PA 4: Cycles: Ice Ages • In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age. Now warming. You have no credibility, why should we believe you now. – In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press attention. – 2010 Think scientific method • Observations, observations • Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect • Results reproduced my many investigators, using many independent sources of observations • Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations • Probability of alternative description is very small.

PA 5: The last 1000 years: The hockey stick Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. q Medieval warm period q “Little ice age” q Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350, 000 years.

PA 5: Hockey Stick • This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is very controversial. Quality of data, presentation, manipulation, messaging. – Rood blog – Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy • There are some issues with data, messaging, emotions of scientists here, but the data are, fundamentally, correct.

PA 5: Hockey Stick: Science • But place the surface temperature record of the hockey stick in context using the scientific method. – Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses – Verification of results in other types of observations sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of spring – Consistency of signals with theory upper tropospheric cooling – Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

PA 5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source • There has developed a discussion between those who believe in surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data. – Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other. • Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island – If ignored (wrong), then data flawed – If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted • Satellite data objective and accurate? – Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is different, calibrated with non-satellite data • And ultimately: Scientific method – Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses – Verification of results in other types of observations – Consistency of signals with theory – Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

Projects

Use of climate information • Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example: – Co-development / Co-generation – Trust – Narratives – Scale • Spatial • Temporal Lemos and Morehouse, 2005

Projects • Broad subjects and teams defined • Meeting 1 with Rood – Now to early March: Project vision and goals • Meeting 2 with Rood – Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed • Class review – Short, informal presentation, external review and possible coordination • Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12 • Final written report: April 25

Project Teams • Education / Denial – Allison Caine – Nayiri Haroutunian – Elizabeth Mc. Bride – Michelle Reicher

Project Teams • Regional – Emily Basham – Catherine Kent – Sarah Schwimmer – James Toth – Nicholas Fantin

Project Teams • City – Jian Wei Ang – Erin Dagg – Caroline Kinstle – Heather Lucier

Project Teams • University – Nathan Hamet – Adam Schneider – Jillian Talaski – Victor Vardan

glisaclimate. org • Goal to facilitate problem solving – Based on class experience – Support narratives – Build templates for problem solving

Approach to Problem Solving

Granularity • No matter how we cut through this problem we come to the conclusion that there is a lot of granularity within the problem. This granularity represents complexity, which must be used to develop a portfolio of solutions rather than to classify the problem as intractable.

The previous viewgraphs have introduced “granularity” • This is a classic short-term versus long-term problem. – Ethics – Economics – Reaction versus anticipation • Similarly, regional versus global • Rich and poor • Competing approaches – Mitigation versus adaptation – Transportation versus Electrical Generation – This versus that

We arrive at levels of granularity WEALTH Need to introduce spatial scales as well Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change LOCAL TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM GLOBAL SPATIAL Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.

What is short-term and long-term? Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, . . . LONG SHORT Election time scales ENERGY SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMY 0 years 25 years There are short-term issues important to climate change. 50 years 75 years 100 years

Structure of Problem Solving (http: //glisaclimate. org/home )

Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition • The details of the problem often de-correlate pieces of the problem. – What do I mean? Think about heat waves? • This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based experts, and the ability to generalize. – For example --- Detroit is like Chicago. • The consideration of the system as a whole causes tensions – trade offs - optimization Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration