CLIMATE CHANGE RISK URGENCY AND LEADERSHIP Simon Sharpe

CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, URGENCY AND LEADERSHIP Simon Sharpe UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office Manila, 23 June 2014 UNCLASSIFIED

RISK ASSESSMENT UNCLASSIFIED

Heat Stress in a 10 degree world Steven Sherwood, University of New South Wales, Sydney

Maximum temperatures tolerated by cereal crops Mean maximu m temp (o. C) Source: Global Change Biology (2014) 20, 408– 417

Peters et al – The Challenge to Keep Global Warming Below 2°C

Doing the wrong thing: Share of fossil fuels in world’s energy mix: • In 2011: 82% • 25 years ago: about the same Share of coal in global energy use: • In 2011: 29% • In 2000: 23% Incentivizing the wrong thing: Global subsidies in 2010 for… • fossil fuel consumption: $544 bn • renewable energy: $101 bn

Probability of temperature increase by end of century Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (results based on the AVOID programme)

World Bank: ‘Turn Down the Heat’

“We must not allow ourselves to be diverted into fruitless and divisive argument. Time is too short for that. ”

Case 1: unconditional pledges, lenient rules Upper limit of 2020 emissions for 2 degrees to be feasible: 55 Gt. CO 2 e Rogelj et al, ‘ 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2°C’, Nature Climate Change, December 2012.

Territorial Emissions as per the Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in the context of emissions in 1990 The global distribution of emissions is now starkly different Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

Three things that don’t care who emitted the carbon: No. 1: the atmosphere No. 2: ice sheets

No. 3: our children

Leadership: UK carbon budgets Policy tools: efficiency regulations, carbon price, renewable subsidy

“We are… charged today with preserving life itself – preserving life with all its mystery and all its wonder. May we all be equal to that task. ” - Margaret Thatcher, 1989