Climate change reducing the risks to health Andy

Climate change – reducing the risks to health Andy Haines

Carbon dioxide measurements since 1957 Mauna Loa, Hawaii • The rise in carbon dioxide is due to our emissions • For every 100 t of CO 2 emitted now, 15 -40 t will remain in the atmosphere in 1000 y • Other long-lived GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, FCs. . ) give the equivalent of 20% mor

Earth’s Temperature Chart, since Dinosaur Extinction 65 m yrs ago Arctic ice sheets East Antarctic West Antarctic ice sheet Paleocene 12 ? 8 +5 o. C 4 0 Temp o. C (vs +3 o. C +1. 5 o. C last 2 m yr = ice-age 1961 -90 av temp) 60 myr 50 myr 40 myr 30 myr 20 myr Millions of Years Before Present 10 myr Now Sea level 25 -40 metres higher than today Tripati et al Science 2009

A warming climate IPCC 2013 Surface temperature change 1901 -2012 Global average sea level change September Arctic sea ice area

Projections of globally averaged surface temperature change from 1986 -2005 IPCC 2013 +0. 6 C for change from pre-industrial

Projections of regional surface temperature change 1986 -2005 to 2081 -2100 for high emission scenario (RCP 8. 5) IPCC 2013 Temperature Precipitation

Projections for other quantities IPCC 2013 Global Ocean surface p. H +0. 2 m for change from 1900

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huber PNAS 2010 Exceeding peak heat stress for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans ‘. . It would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about on 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question’ D. S. Battisti and R. L. Naylor. Science 2009

France, August 2003 ~15000 deaths (~70, 000 in Europe) Robine et al 2007 Temperature distribution across Europe on 10 August 2003 at 1500 hrs

Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Baseline 2000 Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Highlands Source: Ebi et al. , 2005

Climate Change and Malaria - Potential transmission in Zimbabwe 2025 Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Source: Ebi et al. , 2005

Diarrheal disease and rainfall � Global overview of 36 published reports from LMICs from 1954 -2000 (Lloyd, Kovats, Armstrong. Climate Res 2007) � 4% (1 -7%) increase in diarrhoea incidence in children aged <5 per 10 mm /month decrease in rainfall � Reduced effect of hand washing where rainfall is low?

CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050 20 Plus climate-related: • Flood/storm/fire damage • Droughts – range, severity • Pests (climate-sensitive) • Infectious diseases (ditto) 36 80 64 Percentage change in yields to 2050 -20 0 +20 +50 +100 UN Devt Prog, 2009

Impacts on malnutrition Increased numbers of stunted children Lloyd S, Kovats RS, Chalabi Z (2011) Region Millions of additional children with stunting in 2050 due to climate change NCAR climate scenario CSIRO climate scenario South Asia 7 6 Sub-Saharan Africa 9 9

Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080 s Source: IPCC Wg II, TSI 2007.

2010 – a harbinger of things to come? Pakistan floods ~ 20 m affected Chinese floods ~ 12 m displaced Russian drought and fires –wheat harvest down ~ 30% 56, 000 extra deaths in Moscow and Western Russia (Munich Re estimate) Record temperatures in 17 countries.

Deaths Attributable to Climate Change in Year 2000 Estimated annual deaths due to climate change from: malnutrition (~80 K), diarrhoea (~50 K), malaria (~20 K), flooding (~3 K) 14 WHO statistical regions are, here, scaled by estimated annual mortality (in 2000) due to change in climate since ~1970. Selected causes of death. (Patz, Gibbs et al, 2007: based on Mc. Michael, Campbell-Lendrum, et al, 2004)

There are physical, behavioural and technological limits to how much we can adapt § Physical limits: small low lying islands e. g. Cayman Islands § Behavioural limits: influence where we live and why, e. g. New Orleans § Technological limits: e. g. to the flood defences such as Thames Barrier, London

Fossil fuel emissions for the scenarios IPCC 2013

Health co-benefits from the ‘lowcarbon’ economy Through policies in several sectors e. g. �Housing �Transport �Food and agriculture �Electricity generation

A 0 Cases of serious illness from air pollution /TWh 30 0 200 100 0 Deaths from air pollution and accidents/TWh 40 0 10 20 30 Air pollution impacts vs CO 2 emissions B lignite coal oil biomass nuclear gas 500 lignite coal oil biomass gas nuclear 1000 1500 0 Equivalent CO 2 emissions g/k. W. hr-1 Source: Markandya A, Wilkinson P. Lancet 2007 500 1000 1500

GBD estimates for air pollution deaths ( Lim et al LANCET 2012 ; 380; ) �Ambient particulates ~3. 2 m deaths p. a. �Household from solid fuels �~3. 5 m p. a. �Tropospheric Ozone ~ 150 k deaths p. a.

Benefits of household energy efficiency in the UK (combined insulation and ventilation control improvements) ( Wilkinson et al 2009 Impacts Reduced exposures e. g. to fine particles, radon, cold, mould, tobacco smoke Premature deaths averted ~ 5400/ year Mt-CO 2 saved (vs 1990) 55

Modelled health benefits of active travel and low emission vehicles: London and Delhi ( Woodcock et al 2009)

Increased active travel in London--- Health effects ( also diabetes, depression , cancer of the breast and bowel) Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths 10 -19% 1443 -2207 10 -18% 866 -1271 Dementia 7 -8% 195 -250 Breast cancer 12 -13% 203 -211 Road traffic crashes 19 -39% 47 -86 Ischaemic heart disease Cerebrovascular disease

Food and Agriculture Sector � 80% of total emissions in sector from livestock production � Reducing animal source saturated fat by 30 % and replacing it with polyunsaturates could reduce heart disease deaths by ~ 15% (~ 18, 000 premature deaths) in

New technologies for clean energy

Building a low carbon, accessible and resilient health system �Design to reduce energy use and GHG emissions. �Increase resilience to floods and heatwaves �Provide care closer to home �Reduce hospital vehicle emissions �Encourage use of public transportation and bicycles �Use locally sourced food and reduce animal product consumption Photos: HCWH, Practice Greenhealth 33

Climate change has far reaching and potentially catastrophic impacts but many low carbon policies can improve health and the economy.