Climate Change Problem Solving AOSS 480 NRE 480
Climate Change Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301 -526 -8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich. edu http: //aoss. engin. umich. edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 January 5, 2012
Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W 12 • 2008 and 2010 Class On Line: – http: //climateknowledge. org/classes/index. php /Climate_Change: _The_Move_to_Action • First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http: //www. aip. org/history/climate/index. html – And in particular two subsections • Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http: //www. aip. org/history/climate/co 2. htm • Simple climate models http: //www. aip. org/history/climate/simple. htm
Today • • Who am I? Course Description Overview Some Questions and Discussion Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
What is the Point of View that I Bring? • Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, highperformance computing. • Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders. • Wunderground. com and climatepolicy. org “expert” blogger • Teaching this course for the seventh time. – Changing it up a bit this year.
What is the Point of View that I Bring? • “Complex problems with no known solutions. ” • There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs. – Blog data base. – http: //climateknowledge. org/Blogs/index. php/Main_Page
What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences) Security Food Environmental National RELIGION Societal Success Standard of Living . . . ? ? ? . . . POLICY “BUSINESS” ECONOMICS PUBLIC HEALTH ENERGY ? ? ? SOCIAL JUSTICE Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
From Course Description • Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. – Where should we pay attention? – What do we know versus what do we believe? • Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements – How big is the problem? • How is all of this changing? • This is not a math-oriented course
Course requirements • Because of diverse nature of students and issues associated with climate change and the attributes of real world problem solving discussion is vital. • There will be 4 or 5 readings, and you will write 1 page thought pieces submitted prior to the lecture. • Evening discussion sessions.
Helping with the class • I have a former student who will be helping with the class – Kevin Reed
Course Project • Reflective of workplace … – “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions. ” • Groups of individuals with varied expertise • Responsive to “news” – Relationship of news to science • Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem. – What are first steps? – What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken? • Monitor progress // briefing during the course • Presentation at end of course
Course News • Project – Grade will be primarily determined on the project • Start to think about them – perhaps even today • Teams that bring together several elements of the project – Should be no larger than 4 people. – Should not be your friends that have the same background. • Should be defined by late January – I will provide a template for thinking about the problem. – Some guidance in defining projects • We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course – That means I will provide management / customer oversight. • Final presentations at the end
Course News • Participation – This semester I will have some modest requirements during the term in addition to the project. – Descriptions of key figures • What do I mean? – 4 or 5 papers to read and discuss • The world 4 degrees warmer – Class participation
Projected Global Temperature Trends 2071 -2100 temperatures relative to 1961 -1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B 2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC ‘ 01
Who are we? • Name • Major or Interest • Any particular reason you wanted to take this course. • When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction?
Questions • Do you think that the planet is warming? – Is this warming consequential? – Is this warming manmade? – Can we do something about it?
Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change • Some global climate predictions
The motivator: Increase of CO 2 (Keeling et al. , 1996)
Basic physics of temperature ncrease is very simple, noncontroversial. The prediction: Note: There i consistency from many models, man scenarios, that there will be warming. (1. 5 – 5. 5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100!
Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http: //data. giss. nasa. gov/gistemp/2005/ See Also: Osborn et al. , The Spatial Extent of 20 th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841 -844, 2006
Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http: //data. giss. nasa. gov/gistemp/2008/ See Also: Osborn et al. , The Spatial Extent of 20 th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841 -844, 2006
IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years
What parameters/events do we care about? • Temperature • Water – Precipitation – Evaporation – Humidity • Droughts • Floods • Extreme Weather • Air Composition – Air quality – Aerosols – Carbon dioxide • Winds • Clouds / Sunlight The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate
Thanks
- Slides: 23