Climate change predictions in SubSaharan Africa impacts and

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations European Commission – FP 7 3. 5 M€ 48 months: 1 Oct 2010 – 30 Sep 2014 Key Words Climate Predictions; Climate Impacts; Vulnerabilities; Adaptation; Case Studies; Agriculture and Water Resources; Socio-economic analysis

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Clim. Africa Rationale Urgent international need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools to better understand predict climate change in Africa, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and develop the correct adaptation strategies. Clim. Africa Objectives 1 - Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to SSA; 2 - Assess climate impacts in key sectors of SSA livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture; 3 - Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate; 4 - Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies; 5 - Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system (for food security, risk management, civil protection) 6 - Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in SSA and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation 1 2 Acronym CMCC ULUND Participant organisation name CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO per i CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI LUNDS UNIVERSITET Country Italy Sweden Partnership 3 CEA COMMISSARIAT A L’ENERGIE ATOMIQUE France 4 MPG Germany 5 VUA 6 CTFC MAX PLANCK GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN VERENIGING VOOR CHRISTELIJK HOGER ONDERWIJS WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK EN PATIENTEZORG CENTRE TECNOLOGIC FORESTAL DE CATALUNYA 18 institutions: 9 Europe 8 Africa + FAO 7 PIC POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH Germany 8 CIRAD CENTRE DE COOPERATION INTERNATIONAL EN RECHERCHE France AGRONOMIQUE POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT 9 12 FAO – FOOD and AGRICULTURE ORGANISATION of the UNITED GTOS NATIONS SOW – VU STICHTING ONDERZOEK WERELDVOEDSELVOORZIENING VAN DE VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT UR 2 PI UNITE DE RECHERCHE SUR LA PRODUCTIVITE DES PLANTATIONS INDUSTRIELLES UCT UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN 13 BCA 14 LBEV 15 ARC 16 ICPAC 17 CSIR-CRI 10 11 Netherlands Spain Netherlands Project coordinator: CMCC – Italy www. cmcc-org Local case studies: 1)Burkina Faso 2)Ghana 3)Togo South Africa 4)Sudan UNIVERSITY OF MALAWI Malawi 5)Ethiopia UNIVERSITY OF LOMÉ Togo 6)Congo 7)Tanzania AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CORPORATION Sudan 8)Kenya IGAD CENTRE FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION APPLICATION Kenya 9)Malawi COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH – CROPS Ghana 10) South Africa RESEARCH INSTITUTE Congo

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WORK PACKAGES Partner ecosystem MPG WP 1 Effects of past climate variability productivity and water cycle WP 2 Feedbacks between climate variability / changes and the CMCC land surface. Improving modelling seasonal to decadal climate predictions Analysis of climate impacts on key ecosystem services LU (water, agriculture) WP 3 on Lead WP 4 Medium-term of Forecasting food and water vulnerabilities FAO and recommending relevant adaptation measures WP 5 Socio-economic implications of climate change impacts CMCC and adaptation measures in SSA WP 6 Regional case studies in SSA CTFC WP 7 Project Management CMCC WP 8 Dissemination and exploitation of project results CMCC

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 1 past climate variability WP 6 case studies WP 3 climate impacts WP 5 Socioeconomic implications WP 4 Medium-term warning system vulnerability, adaptation WP 8 dissemination WP 7 project management WP 2 climate predictability and forecasts

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 1 - Africa is a hotspot of interannual variability of the global land carbon cycle Jung et al. In press

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 1 – Past Climate Variability Collection and synthesis of various data streams that diagnose the variability of the climate, in particular the water cycle, and the productivity of ecosystems in the past decades. The data streams range from ground based observations and satellite remote sensing to model simulations. WP 1 aims at providing consolidated data to other WPs in Clim. Africa, and at analyzing the interactions between climate variability, water availability, and ecosystem productivity of Sub-Saharan Africa. Jung et al. 2010 Recent trends in the water cycle of Africa

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 1 – data already available internally to the project (from Martin Jung and Uli Weber, MPI) daily meteorology from 1901 -2010 soil texture historical land cover/use from 1901 till 2007 albedo for 2000 -2010 based on MODIS latent and sensible heat fluxes derived from upscaling eddy covariance data (1982 -2008, monthly) • monthly FAPAR from 1982 -2010 based on AVHRR, Sea. Wi. FS, MERIS • • • Expected data (soon): • Land use data (by PIK) • digital elevation model • meteo data update until 2030 based on Echam 5 A 2 • soil moisture data set (by VUA) • MODIS land surface temperatures and LAI (all data are 0. 5° and gap-filled if based on remote sensing)

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 2 - CMCC seasonal forecast and decadal prediction system • Seasonal retrospective forecast for 22 years (1989 -2010). Four six-monthforecasts per year, start dates 1 st Feb, 1 st May, 1 st Aug, 1 st Nov. • Decadal predictions. Twenty-year-simulations, start dates 1990 -1995 -20002005 -2010, November 1 st. • Simulations are performed by means of a global climate model initialized with the best observational products of ocean, land atmosphere. Outputs provided: • surface temperature • Precipitation • heat fluxes • winds • etc. East Africa

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 2 Will the weather be favourable this summer? Warm Hot and Dry Cool and Wet Hot and Wet Cold and Wet

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CMCC Seasonal Prediction System WP 2 Coupled Model component Off line Initialization Tools Radiative forcings GHGs & SO 4 Atmospheric IC from ERAInterim Reanalysis Land Surface SILVA (Alessandri 2006, 2007) Atmosphere ECHAM 5 (T 63 ≈ 1. 87°x 1. 87°) (Roeckner et al 1996, 2003) Spectral & Time interpolation INTERA (Kirchner, 2001) Coupler OASIS 3 (Valcke et al, 2000) Ocean initial condition production Sea Ice LIM (ORCA 2) (Timmerman et al, 2005) Ocean OPA 8. 2 (ORCA 2) T & S - OI assimilation SOFA 3. 0 (De Mey and Benkiran 2002) (Madec et al, 1998) Bellucci, Masina, Di Pietro & Navarra, 2007. MWR Coupling Daily No flux adjustment

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 2

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 2 - Observations and global model skill for Eastern Africa Rainfall is most important climate element to model and prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) food security and water resources. Studies on rainfall patterns are already ongoing in many areas of Africa. Seasonal rainfall as percentage of annual total amounts for some seasons within Eastern Africa (from ICPAC, Kenya).

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 2 - Observations and global model skill for Eastern Africa Examples from several Global models: “Skill” basis for use of Global model in multi-model downscaling is quite high for East Africa sub-domain of Clim. Africa analysis and applications. Regional model: Regional model skill is reasonably good also PRECIS model will be a reliable source of detailed future projections within time window 2010 -2090 s.

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 3 - Climate impacts on key ecosystem services Quantifying sensitivity of vegetation productivity and water resources to seasonal, interannual and decadal variability in weather and climate Current models in combination recently Land Use Change CO 2 emissions Climate Change with developed datasets of land use and climate (from WP 2) will be used to simulate crop yield and water resources. Simulations using short-term scenarios of future climate change (5 -10 years) will be used to identify regional differences in the climate sensitivity of crop production etc. Crop Model Scenarios for the African agricultural/pastoral sectors will also be made using longer model Water use Crop yield runs. Identify tradeoffs and areas of risk and vulnerability related to: a) water related hazards b) agricultural and pastoral performance c) soil degradation …using an agro. DVM Work in progress: Model development and input data processing.

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 3 - Preliminary output GUESS with crop module: Hadley A 2 scenario Potential NPP a. Maize b. Maniok

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 4 - Medium-term of Forecasting food and water vulnerabilities and adaptation mesures Establish a monitoring and forecasting warning system (based on Clim. Africa data) that produces prospective analyses about food insecurity and water crisis for at least the next 10 years. Fill the gap between seasonal scale predictions and longterm impact scenarios Identify the future Areas of Concerns (Ao. Cs) and likely hotspots of vulnerabilities and food insecurity

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 4 - Natural Resources and Food Security – Systems at Risk (Na. F-SAR) Integrate and harmonize Clim. Africa data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. A Risk framework is being used to provide a strategic context for the data and tools generated. The framework consists of 4 key stages: 1 - Physiographic data related to hazard or environmental pressure; 2 - Socio-economic data (people) 3 - Risk assessment hot spotting based on (1) & (2) and the development of scenarios 4 - Decision support.

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 5 – Socio-economic implications The social economic research group within CLIMAFRICA aims to provide a throughout economic assessment of agriculture and water sector, using, among others, a computable general equilibrium model, ICES, developed at the CMCC. The main advantage of this Nested tree Structure for the supply demand side investigation approach is to side ICES model depict the economy as a system where goods and factor markets interacts domestically and internationally. Price effects, competitiveness effects, demand supply adjustments triggered by impacts on the agricultural sector can thus be properly captured.

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 5 Number of people exposed to climate-change induced water stress (IPCC AR 4, 2007) Climate Change impacts on crops’ yields.

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 5 Climate change impacts by category and region (Bosello et al. 2009)

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP 6 – Case Studies Characterize the environmental and socioeconomic conditions of 9 different Sub. Saharan African regions distributed along a wide climate gradient (Ghana, Burkina Faso, Togo, Malawi, Republic of Congo, Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania). The studies carried out in these regions will provide field data to other work packages for empirical model development and mechanistic model parametrization. In addition, the synergies developed with the existing actors (managers and policymakers, NGO’s, local farmer’s organizations, women’s associations, etc. ) during these studies will allow to test and validate both the individual model outputs and the Medium Term Warning System in these regions. Tchizalamou site, Congo

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Case Studies The countries to be considered for the choice of the case studies have been identified by an analysis of the Sub-Saharan region based on the following five data sets, as indicators of environmental, climatic, agricultural and socioeconomic conditions: • Global Ecological Zones (2001) - as indicator of ecologic conditions • Major farming systems of SSA(2001) (as indicator of farming systems) • GLC-2000 Based 1 km Global Land Cover - Africa (2004) - as indicator of land cover • Prevalence of stunting among children under five (2007) - as indicator of malnutrition, under nutrition, and poverty • Total renewable water per capita (actual) (1960 -2007) - as indicator of water scarcity The analysis has produced the following list of eligible countries: 1) Burkina Faso, 2) Ghana, 3) Togo, 4) Sudan, 5) Ethiopia, 6) Congo, 7) Tanzania, 8) Kenya, 9) Malawi, 10) South Africa