Climate Change Ocean Impacts on Public Health Climate

Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health Climate Change Health Summit Washington, DC September 20, 2015 Donald F. Boesch

A Global Warming Pause? MVN RSM Program

2015 Virtually Certain Temperature Record MVN RSM Program

Ocean Heating Has Been Steady MVN RSM Program

Most of the Heat Stored in Ocean MVN RSM Program

How Much Will it Warm? It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit. Global average surface temperature 7. 2°F Unrestrained growth in emissions RCP 8. 5 3. 6°F Rapid emissions reductions RCP 2. 6 www. ipcc. ch MVN RSM Program

Changes Will Vary Greatly RCP 8. 5 Scenario for 2081 -2100 Annual mean surface temperature [Chesapeake region warms more than global average, up to 8°F!] Average percent change in annual mean precipitation [~10% increase in Chesapeake region, mainly winter-spring] www. ipcc. ch MVN RSM Program

A Warmer Chesapeake Bay MVN RSM Program

Extensive Effects of Ocean Warming Anomalously warm surface water in NE Pacific in 2015 • Drought in California • Heat waves in NW US • Effects on salmon stocks • Harmful algal blooms • Pacific Decadal Oscillation • El Niño MVN RSM Program

Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years meters 0. 4 Tide gauges 0. 2 0. 0 -0. 2 -0. 4 Paleo-reconstruction Less than 1 foot in 2, 000 years Kemp et al. 2011. Proc. National Acad. Sci MVN RSM Program

Recent Sea-Level Rise Since 1992 sea level rising more than twice as fast as for the 20 th century as a whole. sealevel. colorado. edu MVN RSM Program

Factors That Influence Sea-Level Change MVN RSM Program

How Much Will the Seas Rise? Unrestrained emissions Rapid reductions Horton et al. 2013 Quaternary Science Reviews 84: 1 MVN RSM Program

Effects of Polar Ice Sheet Melting Expected change in sea level for a given loss of ice mass from Greenland Antarctica. Greenland West Antarctica Paradoxically, sea-level rise is greatest farthest from the source. MVN RSM Program

Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level Tide gauge level trends Gulf Stream strength Based on work of Tal Ezer and colleagues, Old Dominion University J. Geophysical Research 118: 685 MVN RSM Program

Vertical Land Motion--Glaciation Land surfaces that were depressed by thick ice masses are now rising. Land surfaces that bulged upward because of these ice masses are now sinking. Late Interglacial MVN RSM Program

How Much Will Sea Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay? MVN RSM Program climatechange. maryland. gov

Consequences of Sea-Level Rise Light blue: blue salt marshes Greens: Greens < 2 m, susceptible to innundation Orange-yellow: yellow 2 -4 m, susceptible to storm surge Greater Bay volume, ocean influence MVN RSM Program

Sea-level Rise & Human Catastrophe MVN RSM Program

Climate Change & Tropical Cyclones Hurricane Katrina intensified as a result of warm surface waters Tropical cyclones might actually become M less frequent, but more powerful. MVN RSM Program

Sea-level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100 RCP 4. 5 300 21 st century Sea-level change (cm above 2000) 400 200 Stabilization without overshoot RCP 3 -PD Peak and decline 100 0 Historic (proxies & tide gauges) 1000 1500 2000 2300 Year MVN RSM Program Adapted from Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867.

Harmful Algal Blooms Neurotoxic Paralytic Amnesic Diarrhetic MVN RSM Program

Coastal Ocean & Infectious Disease • • Warmer temperatures Enriched waters Altered ecosystems Open to invasions MVN RSM Program

Increase in Atmospheric CO 2 Starting point 280 ppm MVN RSM Program

Ocean Acidification MVN RSM Program

Climate Change Education K-12 Education (integrated with Next-Generation Science Standards, and Environmental Literacy Requirements) Maryland Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research Higher Education (sustainability literacy, teacher preparation, pipeline) Informal Education (museums, aquaria, outdoor centers, media) www. madeclear. org/ MVN RSM Program

Questions or Comments? • boesch@umces. edu • www. umces. edu/people/president