Climate change integrated assessment methodology for crosssectoral adaptation

Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Project overview For further information contact Paula Harrison (email: Paula. Harrison@ouce. ox. ac. uk) or visit the project website (www. climsave. eu) Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Partners www. CLIMSAVE. eu • • • • • Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK TIAMASG Foundation, Romania Prospex bvba, Belgium ESSRG Kft, Hungary Cranfield University, UK CREAF, Spain University of Kassel, Germany Mendel University, Czech Republic University of the Aegean, Greece Rob Tinch, Belgium Sustainable Environment Research Institute, Austria University of Edinburgh, UK University of Lund, Sweden Wageningen University, The Netherlands University of Southampton, UK Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, China University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia Victoria University, Australia

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe CLIMSAVE Research Themes 1. Developing a web-based tool (the Integrated Assessment Platform) for stakeholders to use to assess cross-sectoral climate change impacts and adaptation options for themselves. 2. Based on a series of linked sectoral models for 6 sectors: urban, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, water and coasts. 3. Developing new socio-economic scenarios with stakeholders that will be quantified within the tool along with a range of climate scenarios. www. CLIMSAVE. eu 4. Assessing climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for both sectoral and ecosystem services indicators. 5. Analysing the cost-effectiveness of adaptation options. 6. Identifying vulnerability hotspots through metrics of impacts and adaptive capacity across sectors.

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Need for Integrated Assessment Tools • Decision-makers and other stakeholders need reliable sciencebased information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and opportunities for adaptation. • The EC White Paper on Adapting to Climate Change indicates that information and research on climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe is not effectively shared across sectors and decision-making levels. www. CLIMSAVE. eu • Conclusion: there is a need for cross-sectoral, integrated assessment tools that take account of stakeholder concerns and requirements -> CLIMSAVE IA Platform. • The CLIMSAVE IA Platform will be a key tool in the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT).

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe The CLIMSAVE IA Platform • Previously: – Models ‘belonged’ to the research community – Lack of flexibility for stakeholders (scenarios, quantification, sensitivity, uncertainty, outputs, etc. ) www. CLIMSAVE. eu • The CLIMSAVE IA Platform intends to: – Be intuitive and accessible to all – Flexible / Interactive – Useful – Be an exploratory tool, not a DSS

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Cross-sectoral focus Agriculture Urban Competition for land Forests Biodiversity Coasts www. CLIMSAVE. eu Water Competition for water Impacts

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Simplified cross-sectoral linkages Climate & socio-economic scenarios Urban Hydrology Snow cover Crop yields Forestry Pests & diseases Water availability Flooding www. CLIMSAVE. eu Rural land allocation Water use Biodiversity

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Participatory scenario development Initial design of IA Platform Construction of meta-models Workshop 1: Draft four socio-economic scenarios Quantification of scenarios Feedback on design and functionality Workshop 2: Enrich and expand scenarios Revisit the quantification of scenarios Define adaptation options www. CLIMSAVE. eu Workshop 3: Test IA Platform with adaptation options Explore impacts and adaptation responses Final CLIMSAVE IA Platform

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Participatory socio-economic scenarios Europe Scotland Surplus Deficit www. CLIMSAVE. eu

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe The Impacts screen of the IA Platform Allows you to: • Carry out a sensitivity analysis • Model the impacts of different future climate and socio-economic scenarios • Explore the effects of uncertainty within a scenario www. CLIMSAVE. eu

Sensitivity analysis Explore how changing the baseline climate affects model results Explore how changing the baseline socio-economic assumptions affects model results

Scenario analysis Select your: • Time period (2020 s or 2050 s) • IPCC Emissions scenario • Climate model (5) • Climate sensitivity (medium is default) • Socio-economic scenarios were developed by stakeholders during the CLIMSAVE project See how impacts change for different scenarios

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Illustrative results for the 2050 s Change in the area of intensive agriculture: Should I Stay GDP: -36% Popn: +23% Yld Tech: -3% Riders on the storm GDP: +54% Popn: +16% Yld Tech: +26% Water exploitation index: Should I Stay Wat Tech: -60% Wat Beh: +11% Riders on the storm Wat Tech: +45% Wat Beh: +52% www. CLIMSAVE. eu

Explore scenario uncertainty Default slider positions developed by CLIMSAVE stakeholders Green (for “Go”) range is stakeholder-derived scenario uncertainty Yellow (for “Caution”) range to explore greater uncertainty Red (for “Stop”)

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Moving to the adaptation screen fixes the scenarios Adaptation screen Marker shows setting from the Impacts screen www. CLIMSAVE. eu Difference between the marker and the slider represents the amount of adaptation Green range represents credible adaptation. This is a function of the scenario and the available capital (human, social and manufactured)

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Example results on adaptation • Increase irrigation efficiency by maximum allowed for each socio-economic scenario Scenario Change in Irrigation Change in food usage (%) production (%) Change in river basins with WEI>0. 4 [n=92] We are the World +18% +2. 3 +2 Icarus +24% +1. 4 +3 Riders on the Storm +7% +0. 2 -1 Should I Stay…? +32% +3. 9 +2 www. CLIMSAVE. eu • Allows more land to be irrigated • Increases relative profitability of irrigated agriculture • Increases no. river basins under high water stress

Vulnerability screen Combines Impact (relative to a threshold) before or after adaptation With Coping Capacity (a function of the Capitals) To give a map of Vulnerability

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Vulnerability of people in 2050 s www. CLIMSAVE. eu Percentage of the European population vulnerable, relative to baseline, for the six ecosystem service indices by socio-economic and climate scenario.

Cost-effectiveness screen Qualitative assessment of the cost of implementation of a measure across a sector Limiting capital for the implementation and efficacy of a measure (from dark green for very high capital availability to red for very low) Qualitative assessment of the potential contribution the measure could make to overall effective adaptation in a sector

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Conclusions • The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is an interactive exploratory web-based tool to enable a wide range of professional, academic and governmental stakeholders to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability under uncertain futures. • Its holistic framework (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) is intended to complement, rather than replace, the use of more detailed sectoral tools used for local predictions. www. CLIMSAVE. eu • It is intended to assist stakeholders and researchers in developing their capacity to understand the interactions between different sectors, rather than viewing sectors in isolation. • Available from www. climsave. eu or Climate-ADAPT (http: //climateadapt. eea. europa. eu/climsave-tool).

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe The CLIMSAVE team www. CLIMSAVE. eu For further information, please contact the Project Coordinator: Paula Harrison, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford; email: Paula. Harrison@ouce. ox. ac. uk