Climate change integrated assessment methodology for crosssectoral adaptation

Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the Integrated Assessment Platform For further information contact Rob Dunford (email: Robert. Dunford@ouce. ox. ac. uk) or visit the project website (www. climsave. eu) Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Vulnerability hotspot approach www. CLIMSAVE. eu ?

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Indicator variables www. CLIMSAVE. eu

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Standardisation Expert-based system developed to convert datasets to standardised 0 -1 index. 0. 0 -0. 2 : Very low 0. 2 -0. 4 : Low 0. 4 -0. 6 : Medium 0. 6 -0. 8 : High 0. 8 -1. 0 : Very high With reference to European and world max/min values. www. CLIMSAVE. eu For some variables (life expectancy) values should already be “very high” across the board. For others there should be more spread.

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe The four capitals at baseline HUMAN CAPITAL www. CLIMSAVE. eu FINANCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL CAPITAL MANUFACTURED CAPITAL

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Scenario coping capacities 2050 Max 2020 Max Current Min 2020 Min www. CLIMSAVE. eu 2050 Min

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Coping Capacity at baseline www. CLIMSAVE. eu

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Coping capacity for scenarios We are the world 2020 s www. CLIMSAVE. eu 2050 s Riders on the storm Icarus Should I stay or should I go

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Vulnerability www. CLIMSAVE. eu ? From sectoral experts From coping capacity method From IA Platform

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Mapping vulnerability Biodiversity Vulnerability 2020 s www. CLIMSAVE. eu Biodiversity Vulnerability 2050 s

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Cross-sectoral vulnerability www. CLIMSAVE. eu

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Aggregate vulnerability Extreme climate scenario (GFCM 21, High emissions) Icarus socio-economic scenario www. CLIMSAVE. eu Moderate climate scenario (CSMK 3, Low emissions) We are the world socio-economic scenario

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Conclusions • The CLIMSAVE approach to vulnerability assessment: – is replicable and transferable; – allows the integration of the concepts of capitals and coping capacity with stakeholder-derived scenarios; and – produces patterns of coping capacity that might be expected for the socio-economic scenarios. www. CLIMSAVE. eu • The aggregate vulnerability hotspot maps suggest that human well-being is most at risk from water stress and biodiversity loss in southern Europe, and from the lack of food provision and land use diversity in northern Europe.