Climate Change in the Distant Past Shows Our

Climate Change in the Distant Past Shows Our Path to Our Hot Future Dr. Gene R. H. Fry 24 March, 2018 updated

Trouble in India

Polluted air cuts 3. 4 years off Indian lives, 6 in cities from New Delhi to Kolkata. Heat stroke deaths mount. Ground Water Loss The Ganges Basin loses enough ground water yearly to fill 10% of Lake Erie. Most mountain glaciers dwindle ever faster in the east & central Himalayas. When they vanish, so could the Ganges River (& others) in the dry season. Many wells in China & India wheat belts go down 300 meters for water. With more CO 2, 2ºC warming cut yields 8 -38% for irrigated wheat in India. Kumar ’ 11 Monsoon rain declined by as much as 10 -20% in N & C-E India, 1901 to 2012. Koll ’ 15 Phytoplankton declined 30% in the Indian Ocean since 1999, or 20% since 1950. Koll ’ 16 Unchecked, warming by 2100 will cost India 8. 7% of GNP. Asia Development Bank ‘ 14

Lessons from the Distant Past

Temperatures can rise “suddenly”. Antarctica was mostly icefree, at 7ºC warmer than now. million years ago Earth’s surface can grow far warmer than now. With more ice, temperature swings are wider, since albedo changes - from icy to less icy - are larger.

• Annual Averages highest level since 14 -15 million years ago (430 -465 ppm) The deep ocean then was ~5. 6ºC warmer. Seas then were 25 -40 meters higher. Tripati ‘ 09 CO 2 levels were almost as high (357 -405 ppm) 4. 0 to 4. 2 million years ago. Sea surfaces then were ~ 4ºC warmer. Seas then were 20 -35 meters higher. Csank ‘ 11, Dwyer ‘ 08 Up 45% (38% Since 1880) This means ice then was gone from almost all of Greenland, most of West Antarctica, and some of East Antarctica. 2/3 of West Antarctic ice is grounded below sea level. So is 1/3 in the East. Sediments show East Antarctic ice then retreated 100 s of km inland. Cook ’ 13 300 ppm (maximum between ice ages) (CH 4 up 111% since 1880) Vostok ice cores suggest a 4. 5ºC warmer world at 400 ppm. 4. 5ºC warmer world makes dry Kansas summers hotter than Las Vegas ones now. We face BIG lag effects. Current CO 2 levels are already too high for us.

Vostok Ice Core Data ∆ + 2015 CH 4 level ~ 1836 ppb + 2015 CO 2 level ~ 400 ppm + 2015 Thousand Years before Present ppm = parts per million ppb = parts per billion Vimeux, Cuffey & Jouzel, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 203: 829 -843 (2002) Vostok Ice Core Data.

Lessons for Our Future from Ages Ago Temperature – GHG Relationship Vostok + Pliocene, Miocene 9. 0 (10 K year resolution) 7. 2 9 R 2 for Vostok 6 . 2 4. . 846. 733 o s 3 0 0 -3 - 20. 4 i n ll io M y r ea ag 4 0 - a My 14. 1 14. 5 Mya 400 ppm in 2015 Vostok ∆ºC from 1951 -80 12 -107 + 19. 1 * LN (CO 2) -110. 7 + 11. 23 * LN (CO 2) + 7. 504 * LN (CH 4) -9 180 384 3. 6 1. 8 0 -1. 8 Estimating ∆ºC at Vostok -6 5. 4 Est. Global ∆ºC from 1951 -80 15 For the ratio of the global average ∆ºC to Vostok ∆ºC, -3. 6 I use 0. 6, the ratio of global change to polar, over the last 2 million years, from Snyder (2016). With current CO 2 & CH 4 levels, the equations yield global surface warming of 7. 8ºC, but only 4. 5ºC if CH 4 is neglected. Warming how fast? 40 -50% in decades, the rest over centuries. -5. 4 220 260 300 340 380 420 460 ppm CO 2 CH 4 today ~1840 ppb 461 554 ppb CH 4 Vostok typical ppb CH 4 for ppm CO 2: 2. 13 x

Global Surface ∆°C = 0. 6 * (-110. 7 + 11. 23 * LN (CO 2) + 7. 504 * LN (CH 4)) +2ºC globally requires (for example) 323 ppm CO 2 and 700 ppb CH 4. This means stopping emissions and removing 2/3 of the CO 2 that humans have emitted + whatever we emit in years to come and all of the CH 4. Humanity’s remaining carbon budget for burning fossil fuels is NEGATIVE 250+ GT of carbon.

Lessons from the Recent Past

Only a tiny fraction of warming goes into the atmosphere.

Heat Content (1022 Joules) Of the net energy Earth absorbs from the Sun, ~84% went to heat oceans to 700 meters deep. • 7% melted ice, 5% heated soil, rocks & trees, while only 4% heated the air. Levitus, 2005 I 1022 Joules = 100 years of US energy use, at 2000 -13 rate 1967 -1990 +0. 4 x 1022 Joules / year 1991 -2005 +0. 7 / 2006 -2016 +1. 0 / = 17 x human use acceleration By now, the oceans gain more heat every 2 years than ALL the energy we’ve ever used. IMMENSE heat gain But much of ocean heat gain has gone below 700 meters deep, to 2, 000 meters deep. Now we see: ~93% went to heat oceans, less to air and others.

+1. 2ºC in 100 years Near-land-surface air has warmed 40 -100% faster than sea surfaces. NASA, 5 -year moving average The 1997 -2017 rate of change is 2. 5ºC / 100 years for Land, 2. 0 for Sea, 2. 2 for Both. At that rate, “Both” will pass 2ºC above 1880 levels in 2063. “Land” in 2037.

40% of warming since 1975 has come from albedo (reflectivity) changes – direct and indirect. Warming to 2100 and beyond will be dominated by albedo changes and permafrost emissions. How do albedo effects produce that much warming?

Earth will warm 3 x more, even if we stop emitting now. Blame phasing out coal’s sulfur emissions (about 0. 3ºC), vanishing Arctic sea ice (~0. 3ºC), receding northern snow cover (~0. 3ºC), receding Greenland & Antarctic ice (~0. 2ºC), warming oceans enough so energy out = in (~0. 6ºC), more H 2 O vapor & less cloud cover (1. 85 multiplier), & carbon emissions from permafrost, etc. (~1ºC). More carbon emissions can add up to 1 -2ºC each from H 2 O vapor, clouds & permafrost.

When? (How fast? ) Sulfur and sea ice loss (Mar-Nov) will be complete about 2050. Snow cover and cloud cover losses will continue. Permafrost + emissions ramp up in an S-curve thru 2300. Polar land ice loss and warming deep oceans span centuries.

Earth Is Heating Up. • Earth now absorbs 0. 25% more energy than it emits: a 300 (± 75) million MW heat gain = 50 x global electric supply. (Hansen ’ 11) This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960. Earth’s surface must warm another 0. 6ºC. so it emits enough heat to balance absorption. The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than all the energy humans have EVER used.

Sulfate Cooling Figure TS. 7: IPCC, AR 5 (2013) Sulfates offset (. 41+. 41/(. 41+. 29) * (0. 10+. 45) -. 01 =. 72) / (sum of above = 2. 30) = 31% of GHG warming.

Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming sulfates still 3 x 1880 levels NASA adjusted R 2 = 97. 8%. Pinatubo +1. 8ºC human sulfur emissions down 23% from 1979 peak Coal-Fired Power Plants Sulfates up 110%. major cooling Agung US SO 2 cuts start. warm more SO 2 cool Krakatoa Santa Maria+ Katmai + Great Depression less SO 2 up the stacks warm Predicted ∆°C = -20. 51 + 2. 223 * LN (CO 2 ppm) + 1. 133 * LN (CH 4 ppb) -. 00319 * SO 4 ppb CO 2, CH 4 & SO 4 (5 -year µ’s (SO 4 est. from emissions, lagged 1 year)) have t-ratios of 9. 72, 11. 61 and -11. 36). SO 4 data includes industrial, occasional large volcanic, and other natural emissions. Averages: 80 (100 now) 8 (episodic) 30

From 1982 thru 2013, radiative forcing from northern snow cover decreased by 0. 33 W / sq m / ºC, adding 12% to GHG warming. Chen ‘ 16 Snow Observations, 1965 -2012 State of the Climate in 2012, American Meteorological Organization

35 30 Arctic Sea Ice Average Monthly Volume km 3 x 1, 000 25 April June July September 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 U of Washington, PIOMAS model, by Wipneus

Andrew Shepherd et al. , “A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance”, Science 38(6111): 1183 -1189. Nov. 30, 2012

Clouds reflect ~17. 5% of incoming sunlight (~ 59 W/m 2) = 10 W/m 2. Annual Average Cloud Observations, 1982 -2012 State of the Climate in 2012, American Meteorological Organization mean of 5 data sets, including ISCCP

Clouds by Altitude Global Monthly Cloud Cover less cooling clouds Cloud Cover (%) Low Middle High less warming clouds more warm International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 1984 1988 dashed lines by Gene Fry 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 net warming effect. Magnitude?

Zelinka ‘ 17 Cloud changes from 1°C warming add ~16% to warming otherwise.

Water Vapor’s GHG Effect 1°C warmer air contains 7% more H 2 O vapor, on average. That increases radiative forcing by 1. 45 W/m 2. That is 86% as much as from CO 2 emitted since 1750.

Mac. Dougall 2012 Permafrost contains ≥ 2 x the carbon in the atmosphere.

Thousand Years before Present The record across several ice ages, at times colder than now, suggests sea level changes of 14 to 24 meters per °C change at the global surface. The record for times warmer than now, 4 and 14 million years ago, suggests 6 to 7 meters of sea level rise per °C of global surface warming. How fast might seas rise in coming centuries?

Sea Levels over Last 24, 000 Years 3 meters per century during Meltwater Pulse 1 A (1 millennium) 1. 5 meters per century from 15 to 8 millennia ago Warming is 40 -50 times as fast as then, but only 1/3 as much ice is left.

Scenarios on the next 4 slides spread ocean warming over 1, 000 years. They use the previous 15 slides for permafrost emissions; sea level; and water vapor & albedo effects of reduced sulfates, snow, ice, and clouds. For clouds, 60% of the amount from AMO 2013 is used. Cloud changes are complex and explain part of warming to date. The effect of Arctic sea ice loss from Hudson (2011) is used: globally, 0. 7 W / sq meter for total loss, during the daylight season, of which 0. 1 had already occurred. Permafrost carbon emission trajectories in the scenarios are based on work by Mac. Dougall et al. (2012). But permafrost has twice the carbon he modeled, and albedo changes will warm permafrost faster than he modeled. So, in the case of fossil fuel phase-out by 2050, and especially the base case (peak ~ 2014, but zero only after 2100), permafrost emissions exceed those shown by Mac. Dougall. In the carbon sequester case, they are lower.

Pathways for Combined Effects

2100 Soil carbon loss since 10, 000 BC = 60% of fossil fuel emissions to 2010. Lal 2001 2014 peak CO 2 removal = 32% of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions to 2010.

2100 Permafrost carbon emissions included: +ppm CO 2 2100 2300 Base 57 + 185 x FF 2050 53 + 109 Remove CO 2 30 + 27 Cold Turkey 41 + 56

2100 Kansas becomes as hot includes big albedo effects: loss of sulfates; sea ice; some cloud cover, snow & land ice. More H 2 O in the air. as Las Vegas now. international target

2100 2014 peak Soil carbon loss since 10, 000 BC = 60% of fossil fuel emissions. Kansas becomes as hot includes big albedo effects: loss of sulfates; sea ice; some cloud cover, snow & land ice. Also more H 2 O in air. Lal ‘ 01 as Las Vegas now. CO 2 removal = 32% of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions to 2010. Permafrost carbon emissions included: +ppm CO 2 2100 2300 Base 57 + 185 x FF 2050 53 + 109 Remove CO 2 30 + 27 includes thermal expansion & near total ice loss (x CO 2 Removal) from most glaciers except Greenland (less in x. FF 2050) & E. Antarctica, where % loss is modest. international target

Combined Effects on Things We Care about

1. 2ºC warming is here. 3+ºC more is in the pipeline. Emissions continue. 2ºC warming is unavoidable, absent MASSIVE CO 2 removal. Holding warming to 2ºC, not 4º, prevents these losses: Gross World Product. 1/5 of the World’s Food. 2/3 of the Amazon Rainforest 1/8 of the world’s oxygen supply Gulf Stream + West Antarctic Icecap . of - Norfolk area, much Florida & Louisiana, central CA, Long Island, Cape Cod 1/2 of all Species. 4ºC warming threatens civilization itself. 5ºC is worse. Details to follow: first 2ºC, next 3ºC, then 4ºC, finally 5ºC.

2ºC Warming * includes CH 4, SO 4, . soot, O 3, N 2 O, CFCs. Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006. (a report by dozens of scientists, headed by the World Bank’s chief economist). selected effects - unavoidable damages, absent MASSIVE CO 2 removal ASAP. • Typhoon costs double. Many more major floods • Major heat waves are common. Forest fires worsen. • Droughts intensify. Deserts spread. • Civil wars & border wars over water increase: more Darfur’s. CNA Corp. – 11 retired US Generals & Admirals, April 2007 • Crop yields rise nowhere & fall in the tropics. e. g. , Brazil soy yields fall 30 -70%, wheat 50%, corn 60%. World Bank 2014 • Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible. If we play it right, melting takes 3, 000 years. If we play it wrong, 300 years. • The ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh. It lasts for centuries. We choose now how fast and how far.

3ºC Warming Stern Review & CNA Corp. additional damages – may be delayed or avoided with MASSIVE CO 2 removal. • Droughts & typhoons get much worse. • Hydropower and irrigation decline. Water is scarce. • Crop yields fall substantially in many areas. • More water wars & failed states. Terrorists multiply. • 2/3 of Amazon rainforest may turn to savanna, desert scrub. Cox ‘ 00, Huntingford ‘ 08, Jones ‘ 09, Cook ‘ 10 Deforestation drove São Paulo drought. Nobre ‘ 14 • Tropical diseases (malaria, etc. ) spread farther and faster. Lyme disease, West Nile virus, dengue fever too. Etc. • 15 -50% of species face extinction. Mammal extinction rates are already 200 -500 x background rates.

. 4ºC Warming further damages - avoidable • Stern Review & CNA Water shortages afflict almost all people. • Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many. • Entire regions cease agriculture altogether, e. g. , Australia. • Water wars, refugee crises & terrorism become intense. This has begun: Somalia, Darfur, Rwanda, south Sudan, Mali, north Nigeria, Syria, Iraq. • Methane release from permafrost accelerates more. • The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons sometimes fail. “Gulf Stream” is shorthand for the world ocean thermohaline circulation, to which it’s connected. • West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up. We played it wrong. Goodbye to Miami, New Orleans, Norfolk & Venice by 2100, to Amsterdam, Bangkok, Canton, Kolkata, Saigon, Shanghai & Tampa by 2200. Goodbye also to parts of New York, London & Washington, as seas creep higher. • At times in US SE, it’s too hot & humid to survive outside work long. Stouffer ’ 13, Sommer ‘ 14, Kopp ’ 15.

5ºC Warming Deserts GROW by 2 x the size of the US. World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2. Rind ‘ 90 Human population falls a lot, to match the reduced food supply. Other species fare worse.

Solutions Stop putting carbon in the air. Take carbon out of the air, big time. Maybe screen out sunshine too, temporarily.

Policy Tax carbon across fossil fuels, worldwide, in proportion to carbon content. Impose the tax upstream (wellhead, mine mouth, port). It should start low, but then rise substantially and briskly, on a pre-set trajectory. End subsidies for production and use of fossil fuels. Give carbon tax credits for carbon removal from ambient air, at the same rate carbon emissions are taxed. US$40 / tonne of carbon ($10 / ton CO 2), rising 12% / year. Return net proceeds as equal tax credits to individuals. This creates jobs and grows GDP, compared to no carbon tax.

Positive Signs Europe’s 6 oil majors have called for a worldwide carbon price. Big Oil already uses shadow CO 2 prices of $9 -80 / ton. 32 top US economists called for a carbon tax, as did Exxon. Mobil in Feb 2017. So have leading Republicans Tillerson, Baker, Schultz, Paulson, Walton. Many US companies asked Trump to stay in the Paris climate pact: the 3 largest by $ value, the largest by revenue, 4 of 5 biggest oil majors and many others. Over 100 US firms will go 100% renewable: Wal. Mart, Apple, Google, etc. Worldwide, new non-carbon power was 150% of new carbon power in 2015. Solar power is now cheaper than coal power in India’s 2016 plan has no new coal power plants to 2027, and 57% renewable power by then, vs 70% from coal now.

Stop Putting Carbon in the Air

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Forecast, 2015

CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels CO 2 Emissions by Nation, Year (Billion Metric Tons) USDo. E / EIA In 1992, Ukraine etc. to Europe, Kazakhstan, etc. to Central Asia. . Misc. Asia = Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. r he a t O si A M Ce id nt -Ea ra st l. A & si a China M a c. i As is India US Japan Europe USS R M-E & CA = Turkey to Pakistan & Kazakhstan, led by Iran & S Arabia Other Russia ica 1 -Yr %∆ 2009 -0. 5 2010 5. 4 2011 3. 8 2012 1. 0 2013 -1. 0 2014 -1. 1 2015 -0. 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 8. 3 7. 3 10. 2 2. 9 -0. 8 -1. 5 -1. 6 n ati L r me A a ic Afr China World Canada Oceania = Australia, NZ, Pacif. .

America’s Low-Carbon Revolution Has Begun US DOE / EIA (2017 – 12 mo) Hydro Wind Oil Solar 2017 was lowest since 1992, 14% below peak. US DOE / EIA (2017 – 12 mo)

Solutions - Electricity • Price it right retail, for everyone: low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons. • Coal: Use less. Scrub out the CO 2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process. • To follow load, store energy in car batteries, trailer & flow batteries, water uphill, compressed air, flywheels, molten salt, hydrogen. • Wind - Resource is many x total use. It’s growing fast. it’s usually cheaper (2 -8¢/k. Wh) than coal. Solar - Resource dwarfs total use. Output peaks near when cooling needs peak. PV costs 3 -20 ¢/k. Wh, thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢. For off-grid Africa, India? 45¢ / day PV panel, battery, 2 LEDs, cellphone charger, radio. • Water, Wood, Waste - Rivers will dwindle. More forest fires limit growth.

Solutions - Efficient Buildings + • At Home - Use heat pumps. Better lights - compact fluorescents (CFLs) & LEDs. Turn off un-used lights. Efficient appliances - air conditioners, refrigerators, front load clothes washers Insulation - high R-value in walls & ceiling, honeycomb window shades, caulking Low flow showerheads, microwave ovens, trees, awnings, clotheslines, solar roofs • Commercial - Use micro cogeneration, heat pumps. Don’t over-light. Use day-lighting, occupancy sensors, reflectors. Use LCD Energy Star computers. Ventilate more with Variable Speed Drives. Use free cooling (open intakes to night air), green roofs, solar roofs. Make ice at night. Melt it during the day - for cold water to cool buildings. • Industrial - Energy $ impact the bottom line. Check % IRRs. Efficiency is generally good already. Facility energy managers do their jobs. Case-specific process changes as energy prices rise. Use more cogeneration.

Solutions - Personal Vehicles Toyota started outselling Ford in the US & GM around the world. US EVs go up to 450 km / charge. O&M is cheaper than in petrol cars. I now drive a Chevrolet Bolt: 5 -8 km / k. Wh, 400± km range, x in winter. In 2008, new cars averaged 15 -18 km / liter in Europe, 19 in Japan. To cut US vehicle CO 2 by 50% in 20 years is not hard. . GM already did it in Europe. HOW? Ditch SUVs. . Lighten up, downsize, don’t over-power engines. Use CVTs, start-stop, VVT, hybrid-electric. . . Use pickup trucks & vans only for work that requires them. . Store wind on the road, with Electric Vehicles. Charge them up at night or mid-day. Sell car battery k. Wh back to grid at peak demand hours. India, Norway, Britain, Holland, France, China to phase out petrol cars.

Take Carbon Out of the Air

1 Rebuild rangelands with perennial grasses. Add soil carbon 5 x faster with short rotation cattle grazing, like buffalo. Deep roots, dung beetles move carbon into soil. Absorb 2. 5 T carbon / ha / yr. Cut CO 2 40 ppm. Fungi network holds water, so 75 -90% of rain soaks in. 2 Farming, done right, adds 1. 5 - 4. 3 GT C / yr to soil. $20 -100 / T CO 2 removed Organic farms can add 2. 5 T C / ha / yr: no-till, compost cover. Rebuild soil organic matter (carbon): from 1 -3% now, to 6 -10% before farming. Increase humus with fungi network & glomalin, holding water many months. GT CO 2 eq / year 6 $20/T $50/T $100/T 5 4 3 2 good for 2 -3 decades from Paustian et al. 2016. Nature 532: 49. 3 Bury biochar (charcoal) shallow in soils, but don’t disrupt fungi networks to do it. More soil carbon stays eons, holds water. 0 1

4 Rocks have weathered for eons, taking 1 GT CO 2 / year from the air. Increase surface area a lot to speed it up: 7 GT CO 2 / yr: 40 ppm by 2100. Move CO 2 into crushed basalt, olivine, peridotite: make carbonates. Scatter GT / year of olivine dust across the tropics: $5 -63 / ton of CO 2 removed. Add granulated olivine to farming soils. Blow air thru amines in artificial leaves, extract the CO 2 and inject it underground. Blow air thru amines in ceramic honeycombs, extract CO 2, for $20 -70 / ton. 5 Farm the oceans. Grow algae in pans kilometers on a side, a meter deep. Add fertilizers (K, P, N, Fe, etc. ) as needed. Harvest the algae, turn it into biochar. Sink it (2+ g / cc). 6 Plant more trees. It’s a good idea, but trees need water. Evaporation leaves less in soils. Droughts hurt. Forest fires skyrocket. However, restoring coastal mangrove forests works well.

We humans must go carbon negative big time, by 2050. QUESTIONS? www. globalwarming-sowhat. com