Climate Change Disasters and SecurityIssues Concerns and Implications

Climate Change, Disasters and Security…Issues, Concerns and Implications for India Main Quest • Tracing the Climate Change- Disasters - Security Nexus • Climate change & disasters linked intrinsically to security through societal vulnerabilities and environmental depletion • Climate change leading to increasing disasters in India –a Concl potential security threat that could severely challenge India’s development and global power aspirations • Integrated Risk Management Framework, Adaptation and Mitigation, Structural to Non Structural Mitigation, Impact Policy Assessment, CCDRI, Modeling, Vulnerability Atlas, Climate Impls Change to “Climate Affairs”, Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction, Centre State Relations, International Cooperation 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 1

Climate Disasters- CRED 2007 Report 2000 -2006 Average- 365 1987 -1998 Average- 195 www. em-dat. net 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 3

Time Line Trend of Natural Disasters 1975 -2007 www. em-dat. net 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 7

Climate Change- Disasters –Security Nexus Resource scarcity Poverty/inequality Political instability Lack of development Lack of human security Natural Hazard 11/28/2020 Vulnerable Conditions Climate Change Conflict Security Disasters Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 9

Disasters- Indian Scenario n India supports 1/6 th of world’s population on 2 % of world's landmass • 59% of land vulnerable to Earthquakes • 28% of land vulnerable to Drought • 40 million hectares (12%) of land vulnerable to Floods • 80% of coast vulnerable to Cyclones • Different types of manmade Hazards • 1 million houses damaged annually + human, economic, social, other losses 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 11

INDIA ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERS Losses in Thousand Crores 50 % 139 % 311 % PERIOD Annual- Impact on People 1. Losses in lives - 4334. 2. People affected - 30 Million. 3. Houses lost - 2. 34 Annual- Financial Losses Percentage of Central Revenue

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in India § Coastal Zone § Area (coastal districts ) approx 379, 610 Km 2, § Population density of 455 pers /Km 2, 1. 5 times national average of 324 pers/ Km 2 § Sea level rise highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal § 01 m Sea Level Rise § displace approx 7. 1 million people, about 5, 764 Km 2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 14

Recommendations n n n Integrated Risk Management Framework Adaptation and Mitigation Structural to Non Structural Mitigation Impact Assessment CCDRI Modeling 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 15

Recommendations n n n Vulnerability Atlas Climate Change to “Climate Affairs” Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction Centre State Relations International Cooperation Climate Change- Need for Single Authority 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 16

Thank You Questions? 11/28/2020 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS 3/USI 17