Climate Change Central Asia An Overview Michael Brody

Climate Change & Central Asia An Overview Michael Brody American University Astana, KZ April 2015 1

Atmospheric CO 2 from 1700 to Present Scripps Institute of Oceanography 2

Global Average Temperature Anomaly http: //www. wmo. int/media/? q=content/warming-trend-continues-2014 3

World Meteorological Organization Всемирная Mетеорологическая Oрганизация • WMO has ranked 2014 as the hottest year on record • 14 of 15 hottest years have been in 21 st century • Average global air temperatures over land sea surface in 2014 were 0. 57 °C (1. 03°F) – above the long-term average of 14. 00°C (57. 2 °F) for the 1961 -1990 reference period 4

Trends in Global Mean Surface Temperature Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (МГЭИК) Working Group 1 Assessment Report 5 (Пятый оценочный доклад) 5

Understanding IPCC Climate Projections • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are 4 GHG concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for AR 5 • Репрезентативный сценарий динамики концентрации ПГ в атмосфере • RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions – Each RCP is identified by its approximate total radiative forcing in year 2100 relative to 1750 – The lowest is considered to be a mitigation scenario; 2 are stabilization scenarios and one is with very high GHG emissions 6

Cumulative CO 2 Emissions 2012 - 2100 7

IPCC RCPs from AR 5 WG 1 Chapter 1 8

Temperature Change in Asia IPCC WG 2 Chapter 24 9

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Losses of Glacier Area Altai-Sayan, Pamir and Tien Shan Remote sensing - 1960 s through 2008 (IPCC WG 2 Chapter 24) 11

Projected Temperature Changes IPCC AR 5 WG 1 (http: //www. climatechange 2013. org/images/uploads/WGIAR 5_WGI-12 Doc 2 b_Final. Draft_Annex. I. pdf ) 12

Projected Precipitation Changes IPCC AR 5 WG 1 (http: //www. climatechange 2013. org/images/uploads/WGIAR 5_WGI-12 Doc 2 b_Final. Draft_Annex. I. pdf) 13

General Conclusions – Asia IPCC AR 5 WG 2 Chapter 24 • Warming trends and increasing temperature extremes have been observed across most of the Asian region over the past century (high confidence) • Water scarcity is expected to be a major challenge for most of the region due to increased water demand lack of good management (medium confidence) – However, there is low confidence in future precipitation projections at a sub-regional scale and thus in future freshwater availability in most parts of Asia. • The impacts of climate change on food production and food security in Asia will vary by region with many regions to experience a decline in productivity (medium confidence) – In Central Asia, some areas could be winners (cereal production in northern and eastern Kazakhstan could benefit from the longer growing season, warmer winters and slight increase in winter precipitation), while others could be losers (western Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where frequent droughts could negatively affect cotton production, increase water demand for irrigation, and exacerbate desertification). • Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have responded to recent climate change with shifts in the phenologies, growth rates, and the distributions of plant species, and permafrost degradation, and the projected changes in climate during the 21 st Century will increase these impacts (high confidence) 14

General Conclusions – Asia IPCC AR 5 WG 2 Chapter 24 • Extreme climate events will have an increasing impact on human health, security, livelihoods, and poverty, with the type and magnitude of impact varying across Asia (high confidence) • Studies of observed climate changes and their impacts are still inadequate for many areas, particularly in North, CENTRAL and West Asia (high confidence) – Improved projections for precipitation, and thus water supply, are most urgently needed. Understanding of climate change impacts on ecosystems in Asia is currently limited by the incompleteness and inaccessibility of biodiversity information. 15

Uncertainty of Future Climate 2 Major Sources • Unknown Magnitude of Future Global Emissions – For example - IPCC RCPs – Uncertainties include: • • Global policies on carbon emissions Economic and population growth Development pathways Energy use • Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) • Равновесная чувствительность климата – Rise in temperature with full energy balance after doubling of CO 2 concentration (560 ppm) from pre-industrial times (280 ppm) – IPCC estimates that ECS is likely in the range 1. 5°C to 4. 5°C (high confidence) • extremely unlikely to be less than 1°C (high confidence) • and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence) – Practical significance may of different values may mainly be in the rate of warming 16

Global Average Surface Temperature Change RCPs 2. 6 & 8. 5 17