Climate Change and Plan B Nils Larsson International

Climate Change and Plan B Nils Larsson International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment 03 October 2017

Climate change overview

Source: The Economist 25 Sep 17

IPCC WG II, AR 5: Summary for Policymakers RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway. RCP 2. 6 assumes a GHG peak of 490 ppm before 2100, then declining; RCP 8. 5 assumes 1370 GHG emissions by 2100, and rising see http: //www. iiasa. ac. at 4

The built environment is implicated in many sectors of GHG emissions 5

CO 2 emissions have very long-term effects on global temperature and sea level Source: IPCC AR 5 6

The nightmare scenario: total global carbon content estimated in billions of tonnes Sources: Schuur et al. , UNEP, CDIAC, in Climate Safety, Public Interest Research Centre, UK, 2008 7

An unavoidable factor: 90% of urban growth is taking place in the developing world and these countries want a western standard of living. Urban populations in Africa and Asia will double in the next 20 years and their populations aspire to western standards of living About 2. 5 B About 1. 1 B UN World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision (Hoornweg) 8

Specific impacts of high temperatures n n Higher temperature increases evaporation rates, which aggravates water shortages; Generally, higher temperatures leads to more use of mechanical cooling which creates more demand for electricity, which in turn creates more GHG emissions. n Heat waves can cause higher death rates, especially in the older population. The estimated extra mortality in eight European countries from the 2003 heat wave was 34, 897 *; n Electricity demand rose significantly because of the intense use of cooling systems, and hydroelectric production was reduced by 19% because of reduced river flow rates, and nuclear production was reduced by 4% because the water temperatures of river cooling water rose above acceptable levels. * J-L. Salagnac, Building Research & Information, July/August 2007 9

Urban heat islands: Paris, August 4 -13, 2003 B. Dousset, ESA user consultation meeting, Athens, June 2007 10

Urban heat islands Here is graphic proof that vegetation in urban areas helps to reduce overheating. Current index is Beijing is 0. 12 ! B. Dousset, ESA user consultation meeting, Athens, June 2007 11

IPCC WG II, AR 5: Summary for Policymakers Remember that averages hide extreme highs and lows 12 WG 1 AR 5 Fig. SPM-8

Source: The Economist 05 Sep 17

Increased wind speeds will cause high levels of damage to small structures Source: Climate Change Risks to Australia's Coast: A First. Pass National Assessment, Department of Climate Change, Government of Australia, 2009 14

Some EU countries are performing well; others not

The problem • Climate change has definitely arrived; • Key industry and government leaders have hesitated too long to implement adequate long-term mitigation measures; • Measures that have been implemented tend to be of the noregrets and painless variety, but these are not sufficient to make the major and rapid reductions that are needed; • If no serious measures are introduced quickly, the probability of serious economic disruption and social unrest is high; • In view of these factors, we believe that regionally-sensitive plans for more rapid action are urgently needed, and we present a number of long-term and short-term proposals along these lines. 19

20 What we must do This section was developed by Nils Larsson of ii. SBE with substantial contributions from Gregor Herda (UN Habitat), Richard Lorch and Fionn Stevenson (UK), John Shiel (Australia), Stella Bezerra and Roberto Lamberts (Brazil), Teresa Coady, Jean Cinq-Mars, John Crace, Gary Martin and Mark Gorgolewski (Canada), Teresa Parejo-Navajas (Spain), Randa Mahmoud (Egypt), Daniel Charles (France), Ann Edminster and Giancarlo Mangone (USA), Norman Goijberg (Chile), Wynn Cam (Singapore) and Andrea Moro (Italy).

Two principles: We must develop strategies for responding quickly to extreme weather events, which may arrive more quickly than we expect, But we also have to continue working on the longerterm issue of reducing emissions, to prevent the problem from worsening; We need to show a reduction in atmospheric GHG levels by 2020 if we are to have a global temperature increase of less than 2ºC. 21

Effective short-term actions to deal with extreme weather events We must develop strategies for responding quickly to extreme climate or weather events, which may arrive more quickly than we expect. That means that we need actions to: n … protect infrastructure and building stocks; n … be able to relocate large domestic populations or provide short-term housing for climate refugees from elsewhere; n … be prepared for repair and reconstruction efforts. 22

What are effective long-term actions to reduce GHG emissions in such a context? We must immediately launch long-term measures to reduce GHG emissions and to develop strategies to adapt to extreme weather events in the future. We must therefore; n . . . implement mitigation measures now in view of the long lag time to see reductions in emissions; n … invest in order to avoid staggering costs and drops in asset values later; n … adapt our buildings and infrastructure to cope with future conditions; 23

First steps A preliminary step: identify regional vulnerabilities and risks: Identify specific vulnerabilities of the subject region to the major effects of climate change. Primary effects will include changes in local climate, ambient temperatures, precipitation and wind regimes, and these may vary greatly depending on the climatic region and exposure. Secondary effects include changes in the frequency of forest fires, riverine or coastal flooding, loss of soil stability, and damage to buildings and infrastructure; These effects may, in turn, lead to disruption of business or educational activities, the relocation or migration of sections of the local population or, in extreme cases, social unrest.

25 Key actions to rapidly respond to extreme climate and weather conditions

26 Proposals for key contingency actions 1. Reduce locational risks: Prohibit new construction in areas with a high risk of flooding or fire, and ensure that insurance companies support efforts to rebuild in less vulnerable locations. .

27 Proposals for key contingency actions 2. Protect critical facilities and infrastructure: Ensure that facilities and services of critical importance, such as hospitals, fire and police stations, public transportation systems, food supplies, telecommunications, water and sewage treatment and pumping systems, can remain functional at a basic level of performance under extreme conditions.

28 Proposals for key contingency actions 3. Prepare to house relocated populations: Identify empty dwellings that may be useful for relocated populations and identify hotels, office buildings, schools and other public-use buildings that may be suitable for rapid conversion to residential uses.

29 Proposals for key contingency actions 4. Limit speculative cost increases: Minimize short-term speculative increases in labour rates and costs of construction materials.

30 Proposals for key contingency actions 5. Reduce carbon emissions: . Introduce policy measures to radically and rapidly cap and reduce carbon emissions linked to the built environment. Such measures have the added benefit of reducing air pollution. Possible measures include carbon taxes, cap and trade or personal allowances. Examples of successful approaches can be found in Tokyo and British Columbia The Tokyo Cap-and-Trade Program (TCTP), implemented in 2010, is an important measure…to achieve Tokyo’s greenhouse gas target. …Data indicate that TCTP has been effective in reducing energy consumption… to meet … emission reduction goals, to introduce new technologies, and to raise awareness and drive behavioural changes for energy demand reduction. .

31 Proposals for key contingency actions 5. Reduce carbon emissions: . In 2008, British Columbia implemented the first comprehensive and substantial carbon tax in North America. By 2012, the tax had reached a level of C$30/t CO 2, and covered approximately three-quarters of all greenhouse gas emissions in the province… Empirical and simulation models suggest that the tax has reduced emissions in the province by 5– 15%. At the same time, models show that the tax has had negligible effects on aggregate economic performance, though certain emissionsintensive sectors have faced challenges.

32 Proposals for key contingency actions 6. Clean energy and renewables: . Minimize reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation, upgrade power grids to accommodate renewable input sources, accelerate the introduction of decentralized renewable power sources, and ensure that feed-in tariff policies do not distort energy markets.

33 Proposals for key contingency actions 7. Limit peak electrical demand: Rapidly reduce peak loads in electrical networks through rate structures to meet demand to ensure that existing generating facilities are efficiently used.

34 Proposals for key contingency actions 8. Mitigate heat island effect: Implement steps to reduce ambient temperature increases due to urban heat island effect. Measures can include increasing areas devoted to trees and park areas, higher albedo of building roofs, streets and parking areas; installation of green roofs and vegetated walls, and promotion of effective urban ventilation.

35 Proposals for key contingency actions 9. Limit new development: In developed countries, except for cases of replacement or planned density increases within existing development zones, impose a freeze on new construction and supporting infrastructure in un-serviced or low-density areas.

36 Proposals for key contingency actions 10. Encourage urban agriculture: The availability of small and localized plots of land for urban agriculture will become of increasing importance as the use of trucks and private vehicles is discouraged in urban areas, and areas available for agriculture shrink.

37 Proposals for key contingency actions 11. Support a shift from private to public transport: . Support the viability of local public transport and discourage use of private cars through: • Mixed uses • Higher urban densities • Location of residential development v. public transport stops • Limitations on on-street and off-street parking for vehicles;

38 Proposals for key contingency actions 12. Limit embodied energy and emissions: . Support adoption of environmental product declarations and require estimates of life-cycle and embodied emissions for heavy construction materials in major projects. Systems such as high-performance windows, external shading devices or added insulation or thermal mass, can improve operating performance, but all require an investment of added embodied energy and emissions. Such trade-offs are often overlooked. There is a danger in being bogged down in detailed calculations for minor building components, and it should be recalled that most GHG embodied emissions are related to the use of a small number of heavy materials, such as gravel, sand, cement, steel and glass.

39 Proposals for key contingency actions 13. Undertake deep green renovation: Where substantial performance gains are possible in a large number of residential and non-residential buildings, establish major programs for deep green renovation that result in nearlyzero operating emissions, better hot weather performance, reduced peak electrical loads and water consumption. Because of the variety of existing building types, training for contractors will have to be intensive and extensive.

40 Proposals for key contingency actions 14. Ensure very high performance of new buildings: For new construction that is permitted, limit embodied emissions, require nearly-zero operating GHG emissions, limit peak electrical loads and water consumption. A complete list of key performance areas would include environmental loadings, indoor environmental quality, service quality, social and cultural aspects, and cost and economic aspects. These traditional performance areas must now be supplemented with measures to improve building resilience against new conditions of extreme wind, precipitation and flooding events, as well as better hot-weather performance.

41 Proposals for key contingency actions 15. Appliance and equipment efficiencies: Prohibit the sale of appliances and equipment that do not meet high operating efficiency criteria (e. g. "A+++" label in Europe), and ensure the efficient recycling of components.

42 Proposals for key contingency actions 16. Assess and monitor performance, track key indicators and maintain data: Establish performance targets for a range of building types and ensure that performance assessments for major projects are undertaken prior to completion of the design stage. Ensure that performance assessments take into account possible future climate change impacts that may affect the safety, function or performance of the subject buildings and of its surrounding areas. Such assessment activities should be complemented by performance monitoring systems, with data maintained in public databases to provide building operators and local communities with annual feedback for action on energy, water and occupancy performance.

43 Proposals for key contingency actions For small urban areas, the EVALOC project in the UK provides a good model for participatory evaluations in six small urban areas that are moving towards lowcarbon status. Colours show different rates of CO 2 emissions.

Conclusions 44

45 Conclusions n Climate Change is real and its impacts will affect many sectors in a massive way; n The built environment (buildings and supporting urban environment) has a major impact on global emissions, so we must act decisively in reducing its share of impacts; n Climate change is long-term, so we must continue our efforts at GHG reduction without giving up; n Excessive consumption will not easily be reduced, and business as usual will lead us into global temperature increases considerably greater than the target maximum of 2ºC;

46 Conclusions n It is not unreasonable to assume that it will require several climate-induced disasters of major proportions to shock governments and their populations into real action, especially in wealthy areas such as North America, western Europe and key Asian areas; n When that happens, there will be an immediate demand for repair and reconstruction efforts, but we must also deal with the causes; n This will require that we have contingency plans at the ready to reduce GHGs in a very rapid way and to implement urgent measures for climate change adaptation; n We also need long-term initiatives to reduce emissions; n We must begin such projects now.

Thank you for your attention Nils Larsson on behalf of ii. SBE