Climate Change and Operation Noah Ruth Jarman CEL

Climate Change and Operation Noah Ruth Jarman CEL Trustee & Operation Noah Management Group Member 29 September 2020

Climate change is happening already l l 150, 000 people have died since 1970 because of climate change 1 For wildlife, because of inability of ecosystems to adapt, green house gas levels are already too high 1. Seabirds on NE coast of Britain suffered large scale breeding failure due to lack of sandeels - most likely due to climate change 2 Antarctica is melting faster than expected 3 - Giant Awakened? 29 September 2020

The Greenhouse Effect allows life on Earth 29 September 2020

700 CO 2 in 2100 (with business as usual) 600 Double pre-industrial CO 2 500 Lowest possible CO 2 stabilisation level by 2100 400 CO 2 now 300 200 160 120 80 40 Time (thousands of years) Now 100 CO 2 concentration (ppm) The last 160, 000 years (from ice cores) and the next 100 years

700 CO 2 in 2100 (with business as usual) 600 Double pre-industrial CO 2 500 Lowest possible CO 2 stabilisation level by 2100 400 CO 2 now 300 10 Temperature difference 200 0 from now °C – 10 160 120 80 40 Now Time (thousands of years) 100 CO 2 concentration (ppm) The last 160, 000 years (from ice cores) and the next 100 years

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The Lord loves righteousness and justice; Ps 33: 5 Christian Aid 29/09/2020

He makes grass grow for the cattle, and plants for man to cultivate – bringing forth food from the earth: • 2. 5 o warming in Ps 104: 14 average Earth temp. puts 45 -55 million extra people at risk of hunger by 2080 • 3 o - 65 -75 million (or 3. 3 -5. 5 billion), • 3 -4 o – 80 -125 million 3 Christian Aid

How many are your works, O Lord! In wisdom you made them all; The earth is full of your creatures. Ps 104: 24 • 15 -37% of species committed to extinction by 2050 (mid-range warming) 5 29/09/2020 WWF

Polar ice sheet thickness down by 40% in 20 years. 6 Polar bear birth rate already declining. These all look to you to give them their food at the proper time. Ps 104: 27 WWF

The trees of the Lord are well watered, The cedars of Lebanon that he planted. There the birds make their nests; The stork has its home in the pine trees. Ps 104: 16 -17 29 September 2020 WWF

A 2°C increase in water temperature will kill a coral reef There is the sea, vast and spacious, teeming with creatures beyond number – Living things both large and small. Ps 104: 25 29/09/2020 Jim Cox

And it could get a lot worse l l 6 IPCC 2001 predicted the likely range of temperature rise of between 1. 4 to 5. 8 degrees by 2100 Oxford study found 11 degree rise a possible outcome 1. 5 degree global warming may trigger melting of Greenland icecap – 7 m sea level rise o Greater than 3 rise in temperature allows a serious risk of large scale, irreversible disruptions e. g. – Amazon forest die-off before 2100 – not included in IPCC models o 7 -+3 – 2 in 3 chance of Thermo-Haline Circulation collapse in next 200 years under BAU – Destabilisation of Antarctic ice sheets 29/09/2020

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C&C Utopian? l l l “C&C appears utopian only if we refuse to contemplate the alternatives honestly” Dr. Rowan Williams, The Archbishop of Canterbury “Achieving the goal of the climate treaty, inevitably requires contraction and convergence” UN Climate Change Convention Secretariat “A fair distribution, establishing the concept of per capita emission rights for all countries, as proposed in the Contraction and Convergence scheme” David Hallman, World Council of Churches The commission might have added that contraction and convergence is comprehensive, scientifically based and equitable, unlike the Kyoto Protocol, and that contraction and convergence meets every single objection raised by the United States to Kyoto” Lord Bishop of Hereford The Government should press for a future global climate agreement based on the “Contraction and Convergence” approach, combined with international trading in emission permits. These offer the best longterm prospect of securing equity, economy and international consensus. ” Sir Tom Blundell, Chairman, RCEP 29/09/2020

Who cares about what happens to our planet in 50 years ? Not me, four years is my horizon. Market forces will take care of it. . Not me, that’s the governments problem, anyway, Big Brother’s on in a minute… Not me, half my current shareholders will be dead by then, and I only sell what people want to buy…

What can we do? Operation Noah 1. Sign and post the Climate Covenant 2. Take action yourself 3. Spread the word 29/09/2020

1. The Climate Covenant “ World leaders must act to avert dangerous climate change, and give everyone fair access to energy in a sustainable world economy. We ask the UK government to lead negotiations. We will take action personally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions” 29/09/2020

2. Take action yourself – clean energy l l l Make the switch to green electricity One phone call Get estimate of costs from uswitch. com If you go for Good Energy (formerly unit[e]) or Green Energy, Operation Noah will get £ 7 commission to help us finance the campaign Do try and switch to one of the 4 greenest suppliers (www. foe. co. uk/campaigns/climate/press_for_change/choose_ green_energy) – Good Energy, Green Energy, Ecotricity or Eco Energy 29/09/2020

2. Take action yourself – other l l l l l Drive as little as possible, buy a smaller car Don’t fly Buy local produce Fit energy-saving light bulbs; turn off lights. Set hot water cylinder thermostat at 40 -50 degrees C; insulate. Switch off TVs, computers etc. rather than leaving them on stand-by. Choose the right size pan for cooking food, keep lids on; don’t overfill kettles; use full loads in washing machines. Close curtains at dusk to stop heat escaping. Cut down on draughts but keep enough ventilation. Wear an extra jumper and you will want to turn the heating down! 29/09/2020

2. Take action yourself – churches NEW!!! The Cool Church Toolkit l l l Count the carbon Cut the carbon Keep an eye www. christian-ecology. org. uk/noah 29/09/2020

. . But what can one person do ? 29/09/2020 . . But what can one person do ?

3. Spread the word – Operation Noah has everything you need l l l Talks and power point presentation Drama sketch Sample services Plan and report to church council on switching to green electricity Leaflets – please take some today www. christian-ecology. org. uk/noah 29/09/2020

References Table 2 a. 'Impacts on human systems due to Temperature rise, precipitation change and increases in extreme events', page 1; www. stabilisation 2005. com/impacts_human. pdf 2 Ecosystem Loss and its Implications for Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilisation, John Lanchbery 3 Antarctic ice sheets and sea level rise, Chris Rapley, British Antartic Survey. 4 Relationship between increases in global mean temperature and impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socio-economic systems, Bill Hare, 5 Responses of Species to Changes in Climate Determine Climate Protection Targets (Rick Leemans) 6 Steering committee report Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Feb 1 -3, 2005 Met Office, Exeter 1 7 Hadley Centre Nov 2000 update 29/09/2020

“I have set my rainbow in the clouds, and it will be the sign of the covenant between me and the earth. ” Gen 9: 13 29/09/2020

Carbon Quiz How do you get to work? Where do you holiday? Walk 0 The UK 0 Bus/train 5 Europe 5 Car 10 Outside Europe 20 Is your residence…. Is your electricity…. Detached, hot? 20 Renewable? 0 Small warm? 10 Standard, & conserve energy? 7 Cool flat? 0 Standard, do not conserve? 10 Do you eat… Fresh, locally grown produce? 0 A mix of local and convenience foods? 2 Mostly convenience foods? 4 Do you produce…. Minimal waste and recycle? 0 An average quantity of waste and recycle? 3 Above average amount and do not recycle? 10

Carbon Quiz <5 Well done! If everyone in the world lived like you we would be living within the means of our planet. 5 -25 If everyone lived like you we would need 2 planets to sustain the amount of carbon dioxide that we produce. 25 -45 …………………… 3 planets 45 -65 …………………… 4 planets >65 …………………… 5 planets Based on carbon calculator from Best Foot Forward 29/09/2020