Climate Change An Interdisciplinary Approach to Problem Solving

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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301 -526 -8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] edu http: //aoss. engin. umich. edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 January 27, 2015

Class Information and News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W 15 – Record of course •

Class Information and News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W 15 – Record of course • Rood’s Class Media. Wiki Site – http: //climateknowledge. org/classes/index. php/Climate_Change: _The_Move_to_Action • A tumbler site to help me remember – http: //openclimate. tumblr. com/

Resources and Recommended Reading • TED Video and Education on Feedbacks • Wikipedia on

Resources and Recommended Reading • TED Video and Education on Feedbacks • Wikipedia on Feedbacks • Soden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate Models • Lindzen and Hou: The Iris Effect

Mind Map / Brainstorming

Mind Map / Brainstorming

Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Balance and Altering Balance – System – Unique

Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Balance and Altering Balance – System – Unique • Feedbacks – Alter balance: Recover? – Alter balance: Fall? – Alter balance: New Balance? • In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard – Weather – Climate change?

BALANCE

BALANCE

Radiation Balance Figure In this figure out = in

Radiation Balance Figure In this figure out = in

BALANCE (National Geographic)

BALANCE (National Geographic)

Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey

Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey

Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP

Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP

Artist’s View of Ecosystem How might the balance change? 1) 2) from weather? 3)

Artist’s View of Ecosystem How might the balance change? 1) 2) from weather? 3) from climate? Isle Royale: Wolf-Moose Climate Change (Example of Scenario Planning)

Changes in the sun So what matters? THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING Things

Changes in the sun So what matters? THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING Things that change reflection Things that change absorption If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.

Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009) In this figure out does not = in

Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009) In this figure out does not = in

Balance: Markets and Economics • What does the Federal Reserve do? • Markets (How

Balance: Markets and Economics • What does the Federal Reserve do? • Markets (How do we watch movies? ) – 1950 – 1970 – 1990 – 2000 – 2015 • • Movies on TVs Videocassettes DVDs • Blockbuster, Netflix, Red. Box • Streaming

Feedbacks • When you think of feedback what is your first thought?

Feedbacks • When you think of feedback what is your first thought?

Problem Solving Brings Focus to System • System (Dictionary Definitions): – a set of

Problem Solving Brings Focus to System • System (Dictionary Definitions): – a set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole – a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole – has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection • Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

Net +3. 5 What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2?

Net +3. 5 What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2? Movement of carbon dioxide by burning Millions of Years

Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?

Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?

More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere • FEEDBACKS. . – The idea

More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere • FEEDBACKS. . – The idea that one thing causes a second thing to happen. • That second thing then does something to the first thing – It damps it, negative feedback – It amplifies it, positive feedback – Technical Reference: Soden and Held

Feedback • Definition – Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are "fed back"

Feedback • Definition – Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are "fed back" as inputs to the system • Negative feedback regulates the system • Positive feedback causes system to – Implode – Explode

We perturb the system – how does it respond? • What happens when we

We perturb the system – how does it respond? • What happens when we perturb the system? Is it stable or unstable? • Feedbacks – are they positive or negative?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 1 Infrared Proportional to Temperature Assume that greenhouse gases remain

The Earth System: Feedbacks 1 Infrared Proportional to Temperature Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space • Infrared emission is proportional to temperature • Temperature increases emission increases ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE

Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture • If you were becoming a forest fire

Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture • If you were becoming a forest fire fighter • If you were developing a new clothes dryer

Holding Moisture vs Temperature From Engineering Tool Box

Holding Moisture vs Temperature From Engineering Tool Box

Temperature and Moisture in Air Moisture Cold Wet Hot Wet Temperature Cold Dry Hot

Temperature and Moisture in Air Moisture Cold Wet Hot Wet Temperature Cold Dry Hot Dry

Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse effect Not physical Warmer Moisture Cooler Not

Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse effect Not physical Warmer Moisture Cooler Not Physical

CO 2 Warming • • Increases Temperature Increases Moisture Increases Greenhouse Increases Temperature

CO 2 Warming • • Increases Temperature Increases Moisture Increases Greenhouse Increases Temperature

The Earth System: Feedbacks 2 Water Vapor When it gets warmer more water, a

The Earth System: Feedbacks 2 Water Vapor When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space • Higher temperature increases evaporation from land ocean • Higher temperature allows air to hold more water • Increase of water increases thickness of blanket – increases temperature more • This could runaway! • Natural limit because of condensation clouds, rain? • Compensating circulation changes? • Think deserts … ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE

Temperature and Ice/Snow Ice More Ice Temperature Less Ice

Temperature and Ice/Snow Ice More Ice Temperature Less Ice

Ice/Snow and Reflection Increased Reflection Ice Snow Decreased Reflection

Ice/Snow and Reflection Increased Reflection Ice Snow Decreased Reflection

Ice/Snow and Absorption Increased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow ? Increased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow ? Ice

Ice/Snow and Absorption Increased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow ? Increased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow ? Ice Snow Decreased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow ? Decreased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow ?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 3 Ice – Reflection (Albedo) When it gets warmer less

The Earth System: Feedbacks 3 Ice – Reflection (Albedo) When it gets warmer less ice Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space • Less ice means less reflection warmer • Warmer means less ice • This could runaway! • Cooler works the other way ice-covered ICE

What happens with clouds?

What happens with clouds?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 4 Clouds? Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure

The Earth System: Feedbacks 4 Clouds? Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space • Warmer more water more clouds • More clouds mean more reflection of solar cooler • More clouds mean more infrared to surface warmer • More or less clouds? • Does this stabilize? • Water in all three phases essential to stable climate CLOUD ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE

Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback • Warming and Cooling Possible – This is where much of the

Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback • Warming and Cooling Possible – This is where much of the discussion about scientific uncertainty resides. – How clouds change has been much argued. • The Iris Effect?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 5 Something with the Ocean? Is there something with the

The Earth System: Feedbacks 5 Something with the Ocean? Is there something with the ocean and ice? • Warming ocean temperatures? • Ice sheets melting decreases ocean salinity (density) • Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere • Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean • North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate • Think Gulf Stream • Think climate and people and economy • Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? • Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

The Earth System: Feedbacks 6 Something with the Land? Is there something with the

The Earth System: Feedbacks 6 Something with the Land? Is there something with the land ice/snow? • Warming land temperatures? • Snow cover decreases reflection on land? • Tundra, Arctic very important to climate stability • Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? • Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

Earth System: Ice SUN ICE: • Very important to reflection of solar radiation •

Earth System: Ice SUN ICE: • Very important to reflection of solar radiation • Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise) • Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice) Ice impacts both radiative balance and water – oceans and water resources on land. . • Large “local” effects at pole. • Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting. • Might change very quickly. OCEAN CLOUD-WORLD ATMOSPHERE LAND ICE (cryosphere)

The Earth System: ICE (Think a little more about ice) non-polar glaciers and (Greenland)

The Earth System: ICE (Think a little more about ice) non-polar glaciers and (Greenland) snow (Antarctica) Impacts regional water supply, agriculture, etc. sea-ice Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere heat exchange Solar reflection, Ocean density, Sea-level rise (Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback • Some carry away messages – The Earth is at a complex

Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback • Some carry away messages – The Earth is at a complex balance point • That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases. – Too warm could run away to “greenhouse” – Too cold run away to “snowball” ice vapor – Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO 2 warming will be compensated by more cooling? • Is Earth a “regulated” system? • Have you heard of Gaia Hypothesis?

Feedbacks • Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and definitive. • Feedbacks associated with

Feedbacks • Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and definitive. • Feedbacks associated with melting in the Arctic are largely positive. – (WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009) • The only potentially negative feedback is associated with clouds, which is observed. • Complex role of particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. • Theoretical and observational investigation concludes that feedbacks are substantially linear and positive. – (Roe and Baker, Science, 2007)

Class Exercise: Weather and Climate • Case Study: Winter storm that is happening now.

Class Exercise: Weather and Climate • Case Study: Winter storm that is happening now.

Temperature and Moisture in Air Moisture Cold Wet Hot Wet Average Temperature Cold Dry

Temperature and Moisture in Air Moisture Cold Wet Hot Wet Average Temperature Cold Dry Hot Dry

Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in

Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” – Unique and stable – Prone to natural change • With stable input? • With varying input?

Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in

Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” – Unique and stable – Prone to natural change • With stable input? • With varying input?

Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Balance and Altering Balance – System – Unique

Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015 • Balance and Altering Balance – System – Unique • Feedbacks – Alter balance: Recover? – Alter balance: Fall? – Alter balance: New Balance? • In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard – Weather – Climate change?

Some key words so far: • • Absorption Reflection Balance Temperature to zero degrees

Some key words so far: • • Absorption Reflection Balance Temperature to zero degrees CO 2 and Temperature Correlation Societal Impacts (LIA vs MWP) Conservation Calculating Budgets