Climate Change An Interdisciplinary Approach to Problem Solving
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (CLIMATE 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301 -526 -8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich. edu http: //clasp. engin. umich. edu/people/rbrood Winter 2017 March 23, 2017
Class Information and News • Canvas site: CLIMATE_480_001_W 17 – Record of course • Rood’s Class Media. Wiki Site – http: //climateknowledge. org/classes/index. php/Climate_Change: _The_Move_to_Action • Rood’s Class Tumblr Site: http: //openclimate. tumblr. com
Resources and Recommended Reading • O’Brien et al. , Winners and losers in the context of global change, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 93, 89 -102, 2003 • Barnett et al. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303 -309, 2005 • Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
Reference • The Nature of Environmental Stewardship: Understanding Creation Care Solutions to Environmental Problems, Johnny Lin • Environmental ethics book by a climate scientist who is a religious scholar.
Class News • An assignment is posted. – It is complicated. – Read it and make sure it makes sense. – There is a milestone on April 11, and includes some presentation. • Presentation could be in form of a discussion, in the spirit of iterative problem solving. – Due on April 18, • A written, final version of the presentation, which will stand as a group synthesis (there will be no class) • A narrative from each student – There is no class on March 28 and 30 and you can use this time to meet and organize
Outline: Class 14, Winter 2017 • Return to End of Last Class • Discussion of Ethics and Social Justice
Responses to the Climate Change Problem Autonomous/ Individual Policy/ Societal Reactive Anticipatory Adaptation Mitigation
Experience from Climate Change Problem (We are early in this process) http: //www. glisaclimate. org/climate-information-guide V U L What Has Happened? N B E E R A B What Will Happen? I L I T Y R I S K N E F I T
Characteristics of Successful Use • Frequent Characteristics of Successful Use of Climate Knowledge and Data – Local observation or experience – Alignment of projections with regional observations or experience – Alignment with known vulnerability – Alignment with the narrative of the models Station Satellite Reanalysis Projections Data Space Downscale (localized) Ensembles
Climate Change Relationships CLIMATE CHANGE SOCIETAL SUCCESS • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION
Societal Success and Energy Societal Success Low High This is what we know. Energy Low High Low
Societal Success and Consumption Societal Success Low High consumption is damaging. Consumption Low High Low
Population and Consumption Population Low High • This is not likely in our lifetime. • Past CO 2 emissions by small population Low Degrowth Movement and Catastrophe High This is perilous and our path. Consumption High Low
Energy and Consumption Energy Low High This is perilous and our path. Consumption Low High Low
This thought model leads to • Economic success needs to be decoupled from – Consumption, Energy Use • Consumption needs to be decoupled from energy use. • Energy use needs to be decoupled from CO 2 emissions to mitigate warming. • High population, high consumption, high energy use is not sustainable. • Have not considered other resources and other pollutants.
Climate Change Relationships • Climate change is linked to consumption. – The economy depends on us consuming – Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change. – The consumption that has set us on this road of global warming has been by a relatively small percentage of the population. • Wealth is an important variable. • Hence, social equity is an issue.
Solution Space: For Warming Problem • Our current behavior suggests the most desired solution is high energy, high consumption, which leads to the need for energy use to not pollute. • Don’t forget about water. (And a myriad of other resources and sources of pollution. )
The previous viewgraphs have introduced some structure / some language • This is a classic short-term versus long-term problem. – Ethics – Economics – Reaction versus anticipation • Similarly, regional versus global • Rich and poor • Competing approaches – Mitigation versus adaptation – Transportation versus electrical generation – This versus that
Reducing Climate Complexity WEALTH TEMPORAL LOCAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM GLOBAL SPATIAL Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.
Space and Time Small Long Large Long Classic Mitigation Spatial Intuitively Doable Small Short Large Short
Wealth and Time Poor Long Rich Long Wealth Poor Short Rich Short
Why is “Rich” Different?
Managing Climate Complexity WEALTH LOCAL TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM GLOBAL SPATIAL LONG-TERM
Where do Ethics Fit In?
What Are Ethical Issues?
Short-term versus long-term • We return to the short-term versus longterm tension. • This is a classic short-term versus longterm problem. – Ethics – Economics – React versus anticipation • Knowledge base versus business base?
Fundamental Ethical Questions • Contrast between rich and poor, haves and have nots. • Those who use energy are not those most affected by climate change. • Those with wealth are more resilient, more adaptable. • Winners and losers in climate change? • Climate change versus the other challenges we face. • Our use of knowledge November 15, 2006 Ethics in Public Life
Environmental Ethics • “A goal of ethics is to provide us with a language, a set of concepts, effective arguments, and a comprehensive vision whereby we can claim that some kinds of actions are right or wrong, or some forms of living are better or worse, perhaps independently of one’s cultural or legal context. ” Karl Clifton-Soderstrom, North Park University, Chicago
Climate Injustice “Those who use too much of the carbon dioxide absorption capacity of the world’s oceans, vegetation and soil owe a debt to all living creatures whose habitat is threatened. They owe a particular debt to the carbon creditors, the poor of the South who use less than their fair share of the CO 2 absorption capacity. The poor and Indigenous peoples, are among those who are likely to suffer the most severe effects of … climate change. These consequences of global warming are another manifestation of environmental racism. ” (Ecumenical Coalition for Economic Justice 2001) Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Oil Consumption - Production CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION Energy Information Administration
ENERGY VERSUS HUNGER RICH VERSUS POOR HUNGER ENERGY Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos Amigos de la Tierra Int. y Acción Ecológica 2002.
Social Vulnerability (vulnerability/sensitivity) Ø is a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard event ØAn inherent property of a system arising from its internal characteristics (e. g. poverty, inequality, entitlements, institutional landscape, etc) ØGeneric and specific
Determinates of Adaptive Capacity Determinant: Encompasses: Human capital Knowledge (scientific, “local”, technical, political), education levels, health, individual risk perception, labor Information & Technology Communication networks, freedom of expression, technology transfer and data exchange, innovation capacity, early warning systems, technological relevance Material resources and infrastructure Transport, water infrastructure, buildings, sanitation, energy supply and management, environmental quality Organization and social capital State-civil society relations, local coping networks, social mobilization, density of institutional relationships Political capital Modes of governance, leadership legitimacy, participation, decentralization, decision and management capacity, sovereignty Wealth & financial capital Income and wealth distribution, economic marginalization, accessibility and availability of financial instruments (insurance, credit), fiscal incentives for risk management Institutions and entitlements Informal and formal rules for resource conservation, risk management, regional planning, participation, information dissemination, technological innovation, property rights and risk sharing mechanisms Eakin and Lemos 2006
Candidate issues to discuss in groups • My village is washing away. • The islands are sinking. • Exxon. Mobil position on climate change and their internal research on climate change. • Should American Geophysical Union accept Exxon. Mobil’s sponsorship? • What do you think of hydraulic fracturing? (fracking) • Should University of Michigan Endowment invest in fossil fuel companies? • Should I be a vegetarian for climate? • Should I fly to Greenland to see the ice while there is still ice? • Should I diminish the EPA because it takes away jobs?
Development versus addressing climate change
What is the value of “nature? ”
The Islands are Sinking • My village is washing away.
Exxon. Mobil • Exxon. Mobil position on climate change and their internal research on climate change.
Exxon. Mobil and AGU • Should American Geophysical Union accept Exxon. Mobil’s sponsorship?
What do you think of hydraulic fracturing? (fracking)
Should University of Michigan Endowment Invest in Fossil Fuel Companies?
Responses to the Climate Change Problem Autonomous/ Individual Policy/ Societal Reactive Anticipatory Adaptation Mitigation
Some definitions • Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. • Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. • Resilience: The ability to adapt. • Geo-engineering: The notion that we can manage the balance of total energy of the atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land to yield a stable climate in the presence of changing greenhouse gases.
Thinking about MITIGATION • Mitigation: Things we do to reduce greenhouse gases – Reduce emissions – Increase sinks • Mitigation is for the global good • Mitigation has slow time constants • Mitigation is anticipatory policy
About the Global Good • from the world of business. . . – Corporate Strategies for Climate Change Andrew Hoffman, Pew, 2006 • Global good without benefit to the bottom line profit is a poor motivator. – Coupled with benefit to the bottom line great motivator
About the Global Good • from the world of faith. . . – Faith Community • Global good from a perspective that might be independent of the bottom line profit
Thinking about ADAPTATION • Adaptation: What people might do to reduce harm of climate change, or make themselves best able to take advantage of climate change. – Autonomous that people do by themselves – Can be encouraged by public policy • Command control tell you to do it • Incentives • Subsidies – Can be anticipatory or reactive • Adaptation is local; it is self help. • Adaptation has short time constants - at least compared to mitigation Hence people see the need to pay for it. • Some amount of autonomous-reactive adaptation will take place. – Moving villages in Alaska
Some Mitigation-Adaptation considerations • Those who are rich and technologically advanced generally favor adaptation; they feel they can handle it – Plus, technology will continue to make fossil fuel cheap, but with great(er) release of CO 2 • Those who are poor and less technologically advanced generally advocate mitigation and sharing of adaptation technology • Perception that emission scenarios “don’t matter” for the next 50 years • There a lot of arguments, based on economics, that lead towards adaptation – Mitigation always looks expensive, perhaps economically risky, on the time scale of 50 years. • Adaptation looks easier because we will know more • This will remain true as long as the consequences seem incremental and modest – The Innovators Dilemma, evolution vs revolution?
Scale • What is the best scale to measure vulnerability and adaptive capacity? – National: • inform states on needed policy response; allow for better decision making; allows for comparison of differential vulnerability – Regional • Impacts are likely not to be defined by national borders – Local • Ground truth • Allows for the understanding of the local factors that mediate sensitivity and resilience Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Return to Mitigation-Adaptation • Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. • Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. • Resilience: The ability to adapt. • Think about the impacts on people: – Formalize or quantify?
Vulnerability • the interface between exposure to physical threats and the capacity of systems to resist, cope or adapt to such threats. • Reducing vulnerability: identifying points of intervention in the causal change between hazard and human consequences.
Impacts (Hazards) Ø extreme events move to the top Ø variation in climate patterns Ø Cause: storms, dry climate Ø Outcome: floods, mudslides, drought, fire etc. Ø External or intrinsic sources of vulnerability Ø for example, “place”
Social Vulnerability (vulnerability/sensitivity) Ø is a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard event ØAn inherent property of a system arising from its internal characteristics (e. g. poverty, inequality, entitlements, institutional landscape, etc) ØGeneric and specific
Determinates of Adaptive Capacity Determinant: Encompasses: Human capital Knowledge (scientific, “local”, technical, political), education levels, health, individual risk perception, labor Information & Technology Communication networks, freedom of expression, technology transfer and data exchange, innovation capacity, early warning systems, technological relevance Material resources and infrastructure Transport, water infrastructure, buildings, sanitation, energy supply and management, environmental quality Organization and social capital State-civil society relations, local coping networks, social mobilization, density of institutional relationships Political capital Modes of governance, leadership legitimacy, participation, decentralization, decision and management capacity, sovereignty Wealth & financial capital Income and wealth distribution, economic marginalization, accessibility and availability of financial instruments (insurance, credit), fiscal incentives for risk management Institutions and entitlements Informal and formal rules for resource conservation, risk management, regional planning, participation, information dissemination, technological innovation, property rights and risk sharing mechanisms Eakin and Lemos 2006
Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Significant variables (1) population with access to sanitation, (2) literacy rate, 15– 24 -year olds, (3) maternal mortality, (4) literacy rate, over 15 years, (5) calorific intake, (6) voice and accountability, (7) civil liberties, (8) political rights, (9) government effectiveness, (10) literacy ratio (female to male), (11) life expectancy at birth. Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Summary: Class 14, Winter 2017 • When we start to consider the impact of climate change and how to respond we – Faced with the existing situation, without regard to climate change – Are immediately brought to the capabilities and practices of societies and cultures – Response is, largely, non-scientific – There are important issues of social justice and liability
Outline: Class 14, Winter 2017 • Discussion of Ethics and Social Justice
Appendix • Some Issues of Adaptation, Resilience, Ethics
Sensitivity • Sensitivity: different geographical scales, time scales, degrees of exposure and levels of predictability Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Resilience • Ability of people and societies to mitigate, cope and adapt to hazard • Highly variable among countries, groups, gender, etc. • Coping capacity: “combination of all the natural and social characteristics and resources available in a particular location that are used to reduce the impacts of hazards” (UNDP Report). • “internal” processes, entitlements, income access to resources, institutional and market structures Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
What is the connection between human induced environmental change and vulnerability? • Human induced changes have reduced the environment’s capacity to absorb the impacts of change and to deliver the goods and services to satisfy human needs. • Global climate change is likely to exacerbate the severity and frequency of impacts • Examples: mudslides, land-use change, coastal degradation, etc Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Some evaluation • Adaptive capacity, resilience, etc. , vary widely from country to country. Depends on exposure, but largely dependent on wealth. • Wealth is largely related to energy use. • Brings up issues of social justice
The Result of Global Inequality is Gross Carbon Inequality World Average CO 2 Emissions Per Capita, 2000: 1. 56 Tons Rich countries emit around 2. 5 -6 metric tons carbon annually person, while the middle income nations are around 0. 6 m. T and the poorest around 0. 02 m. T Source: Boden, 2003 Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
If we want to measure ability to adapt • We must – Measuring social and cultural processes – Data availability and reproduction – Trade-off between model that better depict reality and usable policy tools – Consideration of equity and ethical issues Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Brooks, Adger and Kelly (2005) Global Environmental Change • risk = hazard x vulnerability • Risk: numbers of people killed by climate-related disaster per decade per national population. Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Physical/Biophysical Vulnerability (risk) Ø Exposure: amount of (potential) damage caused to a system by a particular climate-related event or hazard Ø Vulnerability = I( impacts) – R (resilience) Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
Physical/Biophysical Vulnerability (risk) Ø IPCC: Vulnerability is a function of ƒ( hazard, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) Thanks to Maria Carmen Lemos
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