Climate Change Adaptation Crop Choice Crop Choice As
- Slides: 10
Climate Change Adaptation: Crop Choice
Crop Choice • As climate changes, net revenues of plants change – Crops move along their climate response function • Crop Models often assume no response despite falling productivity
Farmer’s Switch Crops • With warming, current crop becomes ineffective, and farmers switch to a more warm loving crop • Similarly, as precipitation rises or falls, farmers switch to new crop more suited for new condition
African Crops vs Temperature
African Livestock vs Precipitation
How can you determine how farmers in your country will adapt? Look at choices that they are making now in current climate. See how these choices change depending on local climate. Build model of crop choice. Farmer Crop Mix Climate (temperature and precipitation)
Key Assumptions Climate is exogenous Farmer cannot change climate at farm Farmers doing what is in their “best interest” Maximize their net benefits Farmer’s crop choice is best choice given local conditions.
Data Needed • • Crop choices of each farmer Climate and soil of each farm Economic variables such as access to markets Size of farm
Estimation • Logit for single crop • Pr=exp(BX)/(1 -exp(BX)) • Multinomial logit for multiple crops • Pr (Yi)=exp(Bi. Xi)/[1+∑exp(Bj. Xj)]
Hands-on Exercise Sample: 8, 000+ farmers across China Key Questions 1) How does climate affect the choice to grow rice? 2) How does climate affect all crop choices in China? Major Method(s): 1) Logit 2) Multinomial logit regression
