Climate and Marine Protected Areas IMPACT Project Catherine
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Climate and Marine Protected Areas IMPACT Project Catherine Marzin 1, Karsten Shein 2, Tess Brandon 3, Doug Pirhalla 4, Brian Keller 1, Jim Hendee 5 (1) NOS/ONMS; (2) NESDIS/NCDC; (3) NESDIS/NODC; (4) NOS/NCCOS; (5) OAR/AOML Climate and MPA workshop • 11 -13 January, 2010 • AOML, Miami, FL
Climate Change as Threat • Continued global warming will … – Bleach corals – Favor invasive species – Force geographic shifts in species populations – Contribute to mass mortality episodes – Impact human lives and property 2 of 16
Assessments and planning • USGCRP Climate Change Impacts on the United States: Coastal and Marine Resources – “Marine populations and ecosystems have been highly responsive to climate variability. ” • White House Ocean Policy Task Force: Interim Framework for Effective Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (Jan 2010) – “Places science-based information at the heart of decision making. ” 3 of 16
USGCRP: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change on Coastal Areas and Marine Resources (2001)
• • • What factors are involved? Thermal stress Acidification Salinity Mechanical stress Opacity – Sedimentation – Biomass – turbidity • Pollutants – Pathogens – Nutrients – Contaminants • Invasive species 5 of 16 Image credit: U. MD Ctr. for Environmental Sci. Horn Pt. Lab All can be related to climate and climate change …
How might climate affect these factors? • • Temperature Precipitation Radiation Wind Cloudiness Pressure Trace Gases Other ? 6 of 16
But “How” • In order to understand the future, we must first understand the past. • Baseline climatologies • Quantification of changes in space and time • So what? - If we know climate is changing – what can we do? • Short term (monitoring, stress-reduction) • Long term (mitigation, adaptation, marine spatial planning) 7 of 16
A brief example … Tropical Cyclones • Can have significant impact on near-shore marine ecosystems. • Systematic changes in path, intensity and timing are important to identify and understand. • Are certain areas seeing increased or decreased vulnerability to storm strikes? • Will earlier or later storms have greater impact on unsuspecting ecosystems? 8 of 16
Hurricane Tracks near the FKNMS (1998 -2008) Thanks to J. Schittone (ONMS) for the graphic. 9 of 16
Atlantic/Caribbean TC Season 10 of 16
A matter of scale • Most climate change information is based on coarseresolution aggregations. • Localized variations and influences may be far different. • To address these local-scale behaviors we must develop climate resources at these finer scales.
South Florida Protected Areas Rookery Bay NERR 12 of 16
• Hourly data • Daily data • Monthly data 13 of 16 Met stations around the FKNMS
Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tool (IMPACT) • Work to develop climatologies of marine protected areas. – Climate reference baseline • Normals, extremes, ranges, probabilities, etc. • Context of biological resources – Better address climate and climate change impacts – Determine spatial and temporal variability of favorable and unfavorable climatic conditions. – Understand ecological response to climate change – Climate tool for MPA managers 14 of 16 Towering cumulus over FKNMS
Status to date • Team building • Preliminary data discussions – Needs and inventory • SARP grant application • This workshop 15 of 16
Thank You Catherine Marzin NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries Program 1305 East West Hwy SSMC 4 Silver Spring, MD 20910 301 -713 -3125 x-257 Catherine. Marzin@noaa. gov Karsten Shein NOAA National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Ave Asheville, NC 28801 828. 271. 4223 Karsten. Shein@noaa. gov
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