Climate Action Plan Vulnerability Assessment 2019 2020 Project

Climate Action Plan & Vulnerability Assessment 2019 -2020 Project Update 2/6/2020 Emily Wright, Vulnerability Assessment Lead

TOPICS FOR FEBRUARY 6 MEETING • Brief overview of project tasks & status, incl. GHG Inventory • Climate Impacts Summary & Vulnerability Assessment • Next steps 2

PROJECT OVERVIEW A. GHG Inventory (2017) & BAU Forecast B. Climate Vulnerability Assessment, Fact Sheets & Guidance Document C. Review Implementation Status of 2007 CAP; Prioritize Strategies for Mitigation & Adaptation 3

GHG INVENTORY UPDATE • Local Government Operations • • Community Inventory • • Working to finalize inventory and address feedback on draft presented at last committee meeting Continued data collection and follow-ups Working with City of Bellingham and Port of Bellingham Planning for March draft Brief public summary with BAU/wedge graphic 4

CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE SUMMARY • Key changes made include: • Presented full range of possible impacts (including 1% scenarios when available) • Added resources provided, specifically local resources • Purpose of this document compared to Vulnerability Assessment: • Foundational piece for internal use to build upon for the VA and action plan • Focused on drivers of climate (e. g. , temperature, precipitation) • Implications for economy, ecosystems, and society (e. g. , agriculture, human health, water quality) reserved for VA 5

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 6

FOCUS AREAS CRITICAL ECOSYSTEMS & SPECIES FRESH WATER • Forests & woodlands • Water supply: residential, industry/business/agriculture, ecosystems • Marine & coastal • Aquatic & riparian • Salmon recovery, shellfish, orcas LAND USE & AGRICULTURE • Wildland-urban interface • Developments, existing and proposed • Agriculture • Industry • Surface water quality • Stormwater system/flooding TRANSPORTATION • Roads and bridges • Transit CROSS-CUTTING TOPICS: Equity and Public health & safety 7

BRIDGE FROM CLIMATE SCIENCE SUMMARY TO VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT VA + e enc i c s ate m i l c Overview ges d i r B factsheet Focus area factsheets Critical ecosystems & species Climate science and impact summary Informs vulnerability assessment Draft complete Fresh water In progress Land use & agriculture In progress Transportation In progress 8

FACTSHEET DESIGN TEMPLATE • Intended to mirror look & feel of County website • Intuitive layout for ease of reading • Use of icons, bulleted lists, and headers to organize content 9

OVERVIEW FACTSHEET OUTLINE 10

ECOSYSTEMS & SPECIES DRAFT Lower water quality & streamflows Winter flooding Salmon impacted Greater invasive species risk • 60% of County is forested • Greater wildfire, pest & disease risk • Much of forestland federally managed • • • 6 shellfish growing areas • Critical species impacted • Sea level rise Equity: Treaty-reserved resources at risk Health: Wildfire smoke reduces air quality 11

NEXT STEPS • • GHG Inventory – finalize Government Operations Inventory; continue Community-wide inventory Vulnerability Assessment – draft other 3 focus areas • Seeking feedback from Committee on the Ecosystems & Species draft DRAFT 12

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 13

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROCESS Exposure Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Determine whether a system (e. g. resource, population, ) is physically located in an area that would experience climate change impacts. Evaluate the degree to which a system would be affected by climate change impacts. Adaptive Capacity Assess the ease with which the County and community can prepare for climate change impacts by taking actions that reduce exposure or sensitivity. Vulnerability Assessment Combine the analyses and categorize sectors, resources, and communities in the County by their vulnerability level. 14

DEFINITIONS Vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. High, medium, and low ratings depend on the specific sector being assessed. Examples are listed below. Term Definition High Medium Low Exposure Whether a system (e. g. resource, population, ) is physically located in an area that would experience climate change impacts. May be quantified in terms of portion of system and value of assets. >75% of the resource or population is in an area will experience impacts 25 -75% of the resource or population is in an area that will experience impacts <25% of the resource or population is in an area will experience impacts Sensitivity The degree to which a system would be affected by climate change impacts. Significant adverse effects from small changes in climate Significant adverse effects from large changes in climate Limited adverse effects, even for large changes in climate Adaptive Capacity The ease with which the County and community can prepare for climate change impacts by taking actions that reduce exposure or sensitivity. May be quantified in terms of the cost to adapt. Adverse effects can be reduced for a low cost* Adverse effects can be reduced for a moderate cost* Adverse effects can be reduced for a high cost* * = relative to other systems or relative to other parts of the system 15