CLIM 101 Weather Climate and Global Society Policy
CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society Policy and Congressional Bills James Kinter Lecture 21: Nov 12, 2009
Frederick W. Smith, President & CEO, Fed. Ex Corp; Co-chair, Energy Security Leadership Council (ESLC) • 60% of petroleum used in the USA is imported (was 30% in the 1970 s) • 90% of all oil reserves are in countries that are not US allies! • ESLC recommendations: • Diversify US transportation fuels: electrification of short-haul personal transportation • “ 50% of US defense budget is directly or indirectly related to protecting the oil trade. ”
Robert Puentes, Fellow, Brookings Institution • Washington Metropolitan Area: 7. 6 million people (2000) 10. 6 m (2030) • Employment: 4. 4 m (2000) 6. 4 m (2030) • Non-residential dev. : 3. 6 billion square feet (2000) 5. 2 billion square feet (2030)
Ronald Bogle, President & CEO, American Archeological Foundation • By 2037 four times as many buildings and structures on the planet than exist today • US Energy Administration (2007) Report: • Buildings contribute 48% of greenhouse gas emissions annually • 76% of all electricity generated by US power plants supplies the built environment
Larry Flores, National Technical Director, Wind Powering America Program • The US Department of Energy May 2008 Report: “ 20% wind energy by 2030” • Wind energy costs are now competitive with new conventional electric sources • Wind represented 35% of NEW US generating capacity in 2007 (40% in 2008) • US could stall 300, 000 MW by 2030 - this will create $440 billion in economic development; create 500, 000 jobs; save $155 billion in fossil fuel costs; save 4 trillion gallons of water; is equivalent to removing 140 million vehicles off the road
2007 The US Supreme Court ruling in Massachusetts vs. EPA affirmed that the EPA had the authority to control emissions from motor vehicle tailpipes and ordered the EPA to issue an endangerment finding.
• EPA has the authority to regulate air pollutants that have “effects on (public) welfare, ” “on … weather, … and climate, … as well as effects on… personal comfort and well-being. ” • The EPA Administrator (Stephen L. Johnson) was close to issuing such an endangerment finding in 2007 on the basis of “public welfare” but he opted for another public comment period after intense pressure from the Bush administration. (the
April 17, 2009 • The EPA issues a finding for public comment that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions pose a danger to the public’s health and welfare. The finding identified carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; hydro fluorocarbons, ; per fluorocarbons; and sulfur hexafluoride as contributing to global warming. • “In both magnitude and probability, climate change is an enormous problem” • “The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act. ”
Sustainable Development “The balance of economic growth, social justice, and environmental health that meets the needs of present generation and enables future generations to meet their needs. ” Our Common Future (1987) The Brundtland Report
“ --- laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times. ” Thomas Jefferson Letter to George Wythe, August 13, 1790
Climate Change Policy: Positioning Universities for New Opportunities Presentation to the Member Representatives of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research April Burke, Wendy Naus and Frank Steinberg Lewis-Burke Associates LLC October 14, 2009
Status of FY 2010 Appropriations • CJS (NSF, NOAA and NASA) FY 09 Pres. House Senate NSF NOAA NASA $6. 49 $7. 0 $6. 936 $6. 916 $4. 3 $4. 473 $4. 6 $4. 77 $17. 8 $18. 68 $18. 2 $18. 68 DOE OS $4. 77 $4. 94 $4. 9 DOE EERE $1. 93 $2. 32 $2. 25 $2. 23 Amounts in billions – Senate action pending • Energy and Water (DOE) – Final FY 2010: • $4. 9 billion Office of Science • $2. 24 billion EERE • Continuing Resolution – Through Oct. 31
Status of Climate Change Debate • Issues on the table: – – – – Cap and trade Adaptation Climate services Research/USGCRP Energy efficiency Renewables Nuclear n Timing: n n House – Holding pattern, passed “Waxman. Markey” in June Senate – Depends who you ask: n n Maj. Leader Reid – Push to 2010? Boxer – Markup in October
Status of Climate Change Debate: Senate Environment & Public Works (Boxer) • Steering the timeline • Cap and trade/allowance allocations Finance (Baucus) • Cap and trade/allowance allocations • Coal interests Commerce (Rockefeller) • • Foreign Relations (Kerry) • Adaptation/aid for developing countries/offsets Agriculture (Lincoln, new chair) • Concerned with increased costs to farmers/industry Energy & Natural Resources (Bingaman) • Energy piece already reported out of Committee Adaptation National climate service USGCRP/science (Kerry bill) Coal concerns/carbon capture
House vs. Senate Bill Waxman-Markey (H. R. 2454) Kerry-Boxer (Senate Draft) Emission Targets • 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 • 83% by 2050 • 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 • 83% by 2050 Initial Allocations • 15% auctioned, proceeds to individuals • 25% auctioned, proceeds to Treasury • Details to be work out by Finance Adaptation • • • National Climate Service • 3 -year OSTP planning process to create • Likely housed within NOAA • Virtually no mention of interagency engagement or universities • Placeholder language currently, actual language to be developed by Commerce Climate Research/ USGCRP • Includes USGCRP reauthorization • May include USGCRP reauthorization (not in current draft) State planning Public health Natural Resources International Climate Services • Placeholder language currently, covering the same topics as the House bill
House vs. Senate Bill Waxman-Markey (H. R. 2454) Kerry-Boxer (Senate Draft/Bingaman Energy Bill) Renewable & Efficiency Standard • Combined Efficiency and Renewable Electricity Standard • 6% growing to 20% by 2039 • Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Standard • 3% growing to 15% by 2039 Energy Research • Energy Innovation Hubs funded from allowances (0. 45%) • ARPA-E funded from allowances (1. 05%) • Allowances for Hubs and ARPA-E not yet determined • ENR bill includes placeholder language on Grand Challenges Research Initiative Energy Efficiency • More standards, communityfocused incentives • ↑Appliance, Building, Transportation, and Industrial Efficiency • More incentives and demonstration programs • ↑Appliance, Building, Vehicle, Industrial, and Grid Efficiency Nuclear Power • Hardly mentioned • Supported as one of many clean energies • Direct call to promote and expand nuclear in Kerry-Boxer and ENR bill
Emerging Adaptation Opportunities • State Programs to Build Resilience – Distribution of allowances to state governments to implement projects, programs or measures to build resilience to impacts of climate change. • Public Health – Federal Government assist in preparing health systems to respond to impacts of climate change; ensure sufficient information; enhance preparedness; and assist developing nations. • Natural Resources – Efforts to protect, restore and conserve natural resources (including wildlife) in response to climate change; possible financial support and incentives for such programs.
Emerging Adaptation Opportunities (continued) • International – Financial support for bilateral assistance to help vulnerable countries in development of adaptation plans, policy and financing; support adaptation research in/for most vulnerable developing countries. • Climate Services – Will be responsible for coordinating and providing services to users, decision-makers and stakeholders. Many states/decision-makers are not prepared to use this information.
Take Away Messages • Opportunities will emerge with the enactment of climate legislation. • Adaptation is the future; the community needs to position itself to be helpful and inform decision-making. • Get creative, partner, and make new friends with non-traditional atmospheric research agencies (DOD, NIH, USDA, State, etc. ).
Which Countries are Emitting the Most per Capita Greenhouse Gases?
THANK YOU! ANY QUESTIONS? Center of Ocean-Land. Atmosphere studies
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