CLIM 101 Weather Climate and Global Society Key

CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society Key Assertions of and Debates about Global Warming Jagadish Shukla Lecture 16 -17: Oct 27 -29, 2009

Reading for Week 9: Lecture 16 -17 Key Assertions of and Debates about Global Warming • RG Part 1 and 4

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Climate Projections Robust Findings • Even if GHG concentrations where stabilized, climate change would be expected to occur. • The greatest temperature increase will occur at high northern latitudes and over land, with less warming over southern ocean • Precipitation generally increases in the tropical precipitation maxima, decreases in the subtropics, and increases in high latitude. • As the climate warms, snow cover and sea ice extend decrease; glaciers and ice caps loose mass and contribute to sea level rise.

Climate Projections Robust Findings • Heat waves become more frequent; frost days are projected to decrease almost everywhere. • Drying of mid-continental areas during summer indicating a great risk of droughts. • Future warming would reduce the capacity of land ocean to absorb CO 2. • Sea level continues to rise in the 21 st century and beyonod due to thermal expansion and loss of sea ice.

Climate Projections Key Uncertainties • Not possible to predict abrupt change in the meridional overturning circulation in Atlantic. • Model projections of extreme of precipitation has large differences from model to model. • Models show different response of ENSO, blocking and other modes of variability, especially tropical cyclones. • Future’s carbon cycle feedbacks are poorly determined. • Models do not yet exist to predict changes in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. • Climate models show no consistency in regional precipitation changes.

An Elegant Science Question: Are increases in greenhouse gases responsible for increase in global mean temperature (global warming)? 14. 6 14. 4 14. 2 14. 0 13. 8 Global Temperature & Carbon Dioxide 1860 -2008 395 0. 76°C (1. 4°F) since 1900 0. 55°C (1. 0°F) since 1979 365 335 305 13. 6 13. 4 275

A Puzzle Greenhouse effect and global warming are determined by laws of physics, yet the opinions of the American public are divided along political and ideological lines: Conservatives, Republicans, Some corporations: “Fearmongering Hoax” Liberals, Democrats, Environmentalists: “Real and Present Danger”

Science and Politics Percentage of Democrats/Republicans who said that news of global warming was exaggerated (Gallup) 1998 2004 2008 Democrats 23% 22% 18% Republicans 34% 60% 59% Thanks: Ed Maibach, Center for Climate Change Communication (GMU)

History of Discussion on Global Warming (1) First Scientific Result: Increases in CO 2 will warm Earth’s Climate 1896 Arrhenius • • • Considered water vapor feedback Connected global carbon cycle and warming effects of increased CO 2 Estimated 500 years to double CO 2

History of Discussion on Global Warming (2) 1950: After global temperature rose, 1900 to 1940, The Saturday Evening Post published: Is the World Getting Warmer? (1962 book Silent Spring by Rachel Carson launched the environmental movement)

History of Discussion on Global Warming (3) 1970’s -1980’s: Mixed messages b y scientists/media 1972: Sawyer published a paper in Nature, predicting the rise in global means temperature of 0. 6ºC in the 20 th century. 1973: Newsweek published a report (4/28/1973) on the fear of a forthcoming ice age.

History of Discussion on Global Warming (4) 1974: British documentary “Weathermachine” warned about the possibility of ice sheets covering continents in decades. 1975: Broecker published a paper saying we were on the brink of a pronounced global warming 1979 -80: Cold war angst; Nuclear warfare leading to nuclear winter

History of Discussion on Global Warming (5) 1979: National Academy of Sciences published the Charney report: formal acceptance of global warming due to an increase in CO 2 1985: Discovery of Ozone hole (huge confusion with global warming) – Evidence of fragility of Earth’s atmosphere – Satellite pictures of Earth from space had a psychological impact on our perception of Earth’s fragility

History of Discussion on Global Warming (6) 1988: On a hot (sizzling) summer day in Washington (severe droughts in the US) a NASA scientist (J. Hansen) testified that he was 99% sure that global arming was upon us. 1988: The New York Times and the Washington Post together published 40 stories on climate change (less than 12 in previous four years). 1988: “Endangered Earth” was named Planet of the year by Time magazine (instead of its usual “Man of the Year”)

History of Discussion on Global Warming (7) 1989: IPCC was formed by the nations of the World. (IPCC first report, 1991) 1992: “Earth Summit” in Rio (global warming, one of many environmental issues) 1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) was signed by 166 nations in 1992 (189 by now). Because of the US’s stiff opposition no binding emission reductions.

History of Discussion on Global Warming (8) 1997: Kyoto Protocol: the US signed the treaty but did not ratify (not submitted to the US Senate); the US Senate voted 95 -0 against any treaty that did not include emission cuts from developing countries also. 2004: The Kyoto Protocol became international law on February 6, 90 days after Russia ratified it (US President George W. Bush withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol).

History of Discussion on Global Warming (9) Oil, Coal, Auto Industries and Skeptics Strike Back • Industry lobby groups • Industry supported skeptic scientists • The New York Times and the Washington Post stories on global warming dropped from more than 70 (1989) to less than 20 in 1994 • Skeptics/lobby groups successfully convinced journalists/the public that “global warming was at best an unknown quantity and at worst ideological propaganda … a global fraud” (RG, pp 266)

Debate Continues (1) • Washington Post (editorial by James Schlesinger, 2003): “The Science is not settled; ” European conspiracy to undermine US economic growth (Schlesinger is on the board of Peabody Energy, the world’s largest coal company) • USA TODAY (13 June, 2005): “The debate’s over: Globe is warming” • TIME (cover, 3 April, 2006): “Be worried. Be very worried. ”

Debate Continues (2) 2001: “The Skeptical Environmentalist, ” book by Bjorn Lomborg (Denmark) (Kyoto Protocol reductions in CO 2 emissions will have no effect on temperature; will destroy economies - Republican Congressional leaders invited him to testify) Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty labeled the book “objectively dishonest. ” (later (2007) he wrote: “Cool it: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming”)

Debate Continues (3) 2005: “State of Fear” by Michael Crichton (fiction to ridicule global warming) • Best seller; (he also co-wrote the screenplay for the movie “Twister” in 1996) • Had private one hour meeting with President George Bush 2006: Stern Review (UK): major economic impact of global change

Movies/Documentaries • “An Inconvenient Truth” (Al Gore) • “The Great Global Warming Swindle” (documentary based on work of Calder and Svensmark, 2007) (Sun, UV, Cosmic Rays)

Sun, UV, Cosmic Rays, Low Level Clouds, Warming etc. • Sun is producing more sunspots than in the 1800’s • More sunspots mean more UV radiation • UV helps shield Earth from cosmic rays (more UV, less cosmic rays) • Less cosmic rays less ionization of tiny particles that serve as cloud nuclei less highly reflective low level cloud formation (more ionization more cloud nuclei more clouds) • Less clouds more solar radiation more warming • Hence more sunspot UV means less clouds, more warming • This is the idea behind “The Great Global Warming Swindle” • No good data on how much cosmic rays have entered or how much change in low level cloud is because of cosmic rays • They used discredited data and inaccurate graphs

White House • The New York Times (June, 2005): A political appointee in the Bush White House changed: “The Earth is undergoing a period of rapid change, ” from “is” to “may be” • He was a staffer with American Petroleum Institute and a lobbyist against the Kyoto Protocol; after the New York Times story he quit the White House and joined Exxon Mobil.

Scientists Muzzled • James Hansen of NASA told the New York Times and the BBC in 2006 that he was warned of “dire consequences” if he did not clear from NASA Headquarters any media interviews • Many US scientists (12 Nobel laureates) issued a statement that science was being ignored.

The New York Times Industry Ignored Its Scientists on Climate “For more than a decade the Global Climate Coalition, a group representing industries with profits tied to fossil fuels, led an aggressive lobbying and public relations campaign against the idea that emissions of heat-trapping gases could lead to global warming. ” “But a document filed in a federal lawsuit demonstrates that even as the coalition worked to sway opinion, its own scientific and technical experts were advising that the science backing the role of greenhouse gases in global warming could not be refuted. ” By Andrew C. Revkin April 23, 2009

Recent Statements “Climate change is the preeminent geopolitical and economic issue of the 21 st century. It will increase pressure on water, food and land, reverse years of development gains and exacerbate poverty, destabilize fragile states and topple governments. ” Ban Ki-Moon U. N. Secretary General (Washington Post, 9/22/2009) “Some of the prescriptions to address climate change, such as the climate bill passed by the House in June (2009), present more risks to the economy than global warming does. ” The Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers (The Washington Post, 9/21/2009)

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global warming is real – theory has been confirmed. 2. Future warming will be very large, if we carry on with BAU* 3. Impacts of the future warming could be very bad. 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global Warming is Real

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global Warming is Real

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global Warming is Real (Sresa 1 b YR 71 -100) minus (20 c 3 m 1969 -98), Global Average = 2. 61

Global Warming is unequivocal Since 1970, rise in: v Global surface temperatures v Tropospheric temperatures v Global SSTs, ocean Ts v Global sea level v Water vapor v Rainfall intensity v Precipitation extratropics v Hurricane intensity v Drought v Extreme high temperatures v Heat waves Decrease in: NH Snow extent Arctic sea ice Glaciers Cold temperatures

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global warming is real – theory has been confirmed. 2. Future warming will be very large, if we carry on with BAU* 3. Impacts of the future warming could be very bad. 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 2. Future warming will be very large, if we carry on with BAU Observed and Projected Global Mean Warming

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 2. Future warming will be very large, if we carry on with BAU Global Mean Sea Level Relative to the 1980 to 1999 mean

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global warming is real – theory has been confirmed. 2. Future warming will be very large, if we carry on with BAU* 3. Impacts of the future warming could be very bad. 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 3. Impacts of future warming could be very bad. Main threat to a sustainable Earth

Summary of Major Impacts • Heat waves; Droughts; Forest fires • Coastal area’s habitability (sea level) • Health (cholera; malaria; dengue; lyme) • Biodiversity: extinction of species • Agriculture (uneven); Tropics (serious) • Water (drying; snow melt; glacier melt)

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global warming is real – theory has been confirmed. 2. Future warming will be very large, if we carry on with BAU* 3. Impacts of the future warming could be very bad. 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change 1. Ignoring climate change will damage economic growth. (The poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. ) 2. The damage will be on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression. 3. It will be difficult or impossible to reverse changes. 4. The earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it will be.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change • Damages from business-as-usual scenario would be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year • Costs of removing most of the climate risk are around 1% of GDP per year • This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy • “We can grow and be green” Sir Nicholas Stern

A Puzzle Greenhouse effect and global warming are determined by laws of physics, yet the opinions of the American public are divided along political and ideological lines: Conservatives, Republicans, Some corporations: “Fearmongering Hoax” Liberals, Democrats, Environmentalists: “Real and Present Danger”

Extreme Viewpoints Senator James Inhofe (R, Oklahoma), Former Chair, Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee — “The threat of catastrophic global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people” U. N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon — “Climate change is the defining issue of our age. ” Nobel Laureate and Secretary of DOE, Steven Chu — “Science has unambiguously shown that we are altering the destiny of our planet. ”

An Extreme Viewpoint “In a worst case scenario, there might - in the twenty-second century - be only a remnant of humanity eking out a diminished existence in the polar regions and the few remaining oases left on a hot and arid Earth. ” James Lovelock (Rough Guide, 2006)

Science and Politics Global Warming’s Six Americas (Summer, 2007) Doubtful/Dismissive Predominantly Conservatives Alarmed/Concerned Predominantly Liberals Thanks: Ed Maibach, Center for Climate Change Communication (GMU)

http: //climatechange. gmu. edu

Extremely sure global warming is happening Extremely sure global warming is NOT happening http: //climatechange. gmu. edu

Science and Politics Percentage of Democrats/Republicans who said that news of global warming was exaggerated (Gallup) 1998 2004 2008 Democrats 23% 22% 18% Republicans 34% 60% 59% Thanks: Ed Maibach, Center for Climate Change Communication (GMU)

A Heated Debate on Global Warming Proponents: IPCC, Government and University scientists: nearly all funded by governments Skeptics: Mostly funded by oil, coal and auto industries • Global Climate Coalition (GM, Ford, BP, Shell, Exxon, ) • Competitive Enterprise Institute: (Carbon dioxide: They call it Pollution. We call it life. ) (Climate Change: Henson)

The Classic Skeptical View The atmosphere isn’t warming; and if it is, then it’s due to natural variation; and even if it’s not due to natural variation, then the amount of warming is insignificant; and if it becomes significant, then the benefits will outweigh the problems; and even if they don’t technology will come to the rescue; and even if it doesn’t, we shouldn't wreck the economy; to fix the problem when many parts of the science are uncertain. (Climate Change: Henson)

Typical Arguments of Global Warming “Contrarians” 1. Natural variations are much more important than human impacts. • Historical record shows more extreme conditions than today • Effects of sun and volcanoes dwarf effects of humans 2. The dramatic changes predicted for the future are based on flawed theoretical models. The future is essentially unknowable. 3. Even if humans are changing the environment, the consequences are not serious and may even be good. 4. On the other hand, regulations designed to reduce human impacts will cause severe economic damage.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global warming is real – theory has been confirmed. Typical Arguments of Global Warming “Contrarians” 1. Natural variations are much more important than human impacts. • Historical record shows more extreme conditions than today • Effects of sun and volcanoes dwarf effects of humans

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 1. Global Warming is Real

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 2. Future warming will be very large, if we carry on with BAU* Typical Arguments of Global Warming “Contrarians” 2. The dramatic changes predicted for the future are based on flawed theoretical models. The future is essentially unknowable.

Global mean, volume mean ocean temperature Courtesy of Tom Delworth (GFDL) GFDL Model Simulations

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 3. Impacts of the future warming could be very bad. Typical Arguments of Global Warming “Contrarians” 3. Even if humans are changing the environment, the consequences are not serious and may even be good.

Main threat to a sustainable Earth

Impact of Climate Change on World Food Prices Cereal prices versus global mean temperature change

Impacts Hit the Poor Hardest • 30 to 200 million people at risk of hunger with temperature rises of 2 to 3°C. • 0. 7 to 4. 4 billion people will experience growing water shortages with a rise of 2°C. Yields across Africa and Western Asia may fall by 15% to 35%

Equity: impacts will hit the poor hardest and earliest

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes. Typical Arguments of Global Warming “Contrarians” 4. On the other hand, regulations designed to reduce human impacts will cause severe economic damage.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change 1. Ignoring climate change will damage economic growth. (The poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. ) 2. The damage will be on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression. 3. It will be difficult or impossible to reverse changes. 4. The earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it will be.

Key Assertions of Global Warming Theory 4. Changing course requires radical economic changes STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change • Damages from business-as-usual scenario would be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year • Costs of removing most of the climate risk are around 1% of GDP per year • This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy • “We can grow and be green” Sir Nicholas Stern

A Heated Debate on Global Warming Proponents: IPCC, Government and University scientists: nearly all funded by governments Skeptics: Mostly funded by oil, coal and auto industries • Global Climate Coalition (GM, Ford, BP, Shell, Exxon, ) • Competitive Enterprise Institute: (Carbon dioxide: They call it Pollution. We call it life. ) (Climate Change: Henson)

Scientists give uncertainty estimate Policymakers take action

Success of Skeptics and Lobby Groups in Changing Media Coverage • Lobby groups and skeptics launched vigorous efforts to convince the media and the public that global warming was at best an unknown quantity and at worst “an ideological propaganda … a global fraud. ” • By mid 1990’s, the media looses interest in global warming • Media paradigm of equal coverage of both side of story gave a misleading sense of symmetry (in reality, skeptics were only a handful but got equal time) (Rough Guide, 2006)

The Tide Turns: Global Warming becomes a hot topic for the media • Global warming stories (about 50 in 1996 to 200 in 2001) increase in the UK • El Nino of 1997 -1998; European heave wave of 2003 • Shift was slower in the US; contrarians wrote frequently in right wing papers (The Wall Street Journal) (James Schlesinger; science not settled; European conspiracy) • USA Today (13 June 2005): “The Debate is over: Globe is Warming”

Gallup Poll Results March 2009

The Debate Begins (Again!) House vs. Senate Bill Waxman-Markey (H. R. 2454) Emission Targets • 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 • 83% by 2050 Initial • 15% auctioned, Allocations proceeds to individuals Kerry-Boxer (Senate Draft) • 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 • 83% by 2050 • 25% auctioned, proceeds to Treasury

Nature Poses a Challenge to President Obama o. C Nixon/For d 0. 01 Carter 0. 14 Reagan 0. 19 Bush 0. 29 Clinton 0. 39 Bush/Chene Obama 0. 55 y 7 -year running mean Annual mean Had. CRU 3 Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomalies, departure from 1901 -2000 climatology (13. 9 o. C)

Is Global Warming Accelerating? Tim Delsole Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences/GMU Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) M. Tippett International Research Institute/Columbia University J. Shukla AOES/GMU, COLA Submitted to Science (Aug 2009)

Nixon Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama Natural Nixon Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Human Forced Low-pass Spatially Averaged Sea Surface Temperature on ”Well-Observed” Grid Contribution due to the Global Multi-decadal Oscillation

Obama Bush Clinton Reagan Bush Human Forced Carter o. C Nixon Global Warming (SST) Averaged Sea Surface Temperature on “Well-Observed” Grid Delsole et al. 2009

Obama Bush Clinton Reagan Bush Natural Carter o. C Nixon Global Multi-decadal Natural Oscillation Averaged Sea Surface Temperature on “Well-Observed” Grid Delsole et al. 2009

THANK YOU! ANY QUESTIONS?