Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict A New

Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict: A New Approach to Human Security Jorge Restrepo, Michael Spagat Washington, DC August, 2004

Intro n n n Colombian conflict – left-wing guerrillas (FARC, ELN), right-wing illegal paramilitaries (AUC) and government forces We have a great dataset on the conflict – more than 21, 000 events, actors, types of events, georeferencing, casualties, etc. We focus on civilian casualties, analyzed by actor and event type

Main Findings The main human security threats are (in order): n Paramilitary massacres in isolated rural areas (killings) n Guerrilla bombings in isolated rural areas and the five biggest cities (injuries)

Total Civilian Killings and Injuries

Casualties 1988 -2003

Portfolio of Attacks: Paramilitaries vs. Guerrillas

Civilian Casualties in Attacks by Group

Civilian Killings: Guerrilla Attacks

Civilian Killings: Paramilitary Attacks

Civilians Injured by Group

Civilian Injuries: Guerrilla Attacks

Civilians Killed Per Attack by Group

Casualties by event type

Civilians Injured per Attack by Group

FARC vs. ELN casualties in attacks

Civilian Casualties per Attack: FARC vs. ELN

Civilians killed in massacres by the paramilitaries: CDF

Civilians killed in massacres by the guerrillas: CDF

Civilians injured in guerrilla bombings: CDF

Conclusion § § § We can pinpoint the forms of civilian casualties in attacks with known authors with remarkable specificity. More than 1/3 of them are accounted for by paramilitary and guerrilla massacres and guerrilla bombings in isolated rural areas. Add in guerrilla bombings in the five biggest cities and we have almost 40% of the casualties.

Conclusion n n In other words rural security is the big problem but there is a serious urban terrorism issue as well. Colombia is notably lacking in strong local security institutions, to a large extend due to the country’s sad history of abusive paramilitarism

Conclusion n n There are significant pockets of local wealth, in particular, big landowners and cattle farmers that must be tapped to support local security. We will need more good micro data on conflict to fulfil a larger research programme.