Cities as Systems Dr Colin Harrison IBM Distinguished

Cities as Systems Dr. Colin Harrison IBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus colinh@us. ibm. com 2013 European Forum Alpbach 1

Cities, Systems, and Systems Science* • City – “. . Cities generally have complex systems for sanitation, utilities, land usage, housing, and transportation. The concentration of development greatly facilitates interaction between people and businesses, benefiting both parties in the process. “ • System – “A set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole. ” – “A set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an interconnecting network. ” • System Science – “An interdisciplinary field of science that studies the nature of complex systems in nature, society, and science. “ *See www. wikipedia. org 2

Example: The Urban Water Cycle 3

MASDAR – A Net-Zero City (2008) Question: How to allocate resources during a sandstorm?

Systems Effects and Resources Constraints • • “Slack” or excess capacity produces weak interactions Interactions become stronger when resources are constrained Under severe constraints – tipping points Examples: – – – Energy: MASDAR, Malta, Canary Wharf/London, Lower Manhattan…. Water: Middle East, US Western States, China (2030) Transportation: Mexico City, Stockholm, China, India Finance: <pretty much everywhere> Economic Development: <pretty much everywhere> • Conclusion: In the future, we need to take a systems view of the development and management of cities and regions 5

Scaling Laws for Cities How do cities work as complex systems? • Super-linear and sub-linear effects of scale – C. f. Biological systems • Network Effects – – Density of connections Infrastructure Social Economic • Physical models for how cities grow – The Hamiltonian of a City – Kirchoff’s Law • Researchers – – Arizona State University of Chicago NYU CUSP Santa Fe Institute 1. The Origins of Scaling in Cities, Luis Bettencourt, Science June 21, 2013, Vol. 340, no. 6139, pp. 1438 -1441 2. A Theory of City Size, Michael Batty, Science June 21, 2013, Vol. 340, no. 6139, pp. 1418 -1419 6

Input-Output Models of Urban Systems How do cities work at the street level? • Model cities as providers and consumers of services – – “service” means any public, private, or individual capability that can be invoked Agent-based models (individuals, exemplars, organizations…) Consumption of inputs and production of outputs and by-products Boundary problems • Generate understanding – – – Resource consumption flows and contributions to local GDP Environmental impacts Resilience dependencies Policy options Individual decision-making • Researchers – – EUNOIA Imperial College, London U. Chicago EC CORDIS 7

Many Stakeholders in Cities Citizens Political Leaders Engineers Typology Policy Makers Taxonomy Transportation Planners Urbanists Architects Urban Systems Analysts Networks Capture Store Urban Systems Information Economics Social Scientists Civic Groups / Open Data Flows & Connections Transportation Managers Integrated Simulations Structure Integrate Built Environment Economic Development Leaders Scaling Basic Resources Natural Environment Industrial Networks Energy/Utility Managers Public Safety Managers Public Health Managers 8 Environmental Managers

The Need for an Urban Science • Many professions and disciplines study cities – Independent and un-integrated views, metrics, insights • Metaphor of 19 th century medicine – – Treatment of symptoms rather than causes Multiple specialties with isolated diagnoses & treatments No systemic view of the body No abstract principles and patterns • Movement emerging for an Urban Science – New instrumentation drives new science – Smart Cities, Internet of Things – New techniques for understanding complex, interacting systems – Big Data • Hence, we have motivation and ability 9

Many Sources of Knowledge in Cities Citizens Political Leaders Engineers Typology Policy Makers Taxonomy Transportation Planners Urbanists Architects Urban Systems Analysts Networks Capture Store Urban Systems Economics Social Scientists Civic Groups / Open Data Flows & Connections Transportation Managers Integrated Simulations Structure Integrate Built Environment Economic Development Leaders Scaling Basic Resources Natural Environment Industrial Networks Energy/Utility Managers Public Safety Managers Public Health Managers 10 Environmental Managers

Global Systems Science* Challenges for Urban Systems 1. 2. 3. 4. Formal representation of Urban Systems Flower Collecting & Modeling -> Patterns & Principles What is the City trying to do? What real-world questions do we intend to answer? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Healthcare Education Crime “Quality of Life” Resource consumption & production Innovation & economic growth 5. Transformation for the future 11

Global Research Community Emerging • EC CORDIS / Global Systems Science -> Horizons 2020 – – – U. Barcelona U. London Imperial College London ETH Zurich & Singapore CNRS, Paris …. ? – – – Santa Fe Institute Arizona State University / School of Sustainability U. Chicago New York University / Center for Urban Science and Progress Portland State University • USA • China? • Smart Cities Industry – Arup, IBM, Cisco, Google, Microsoft, Siemens, Veolia… – US Dept. of Energy / Smart Cities consortium 12

Thanks for your attention! 13

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The Urban Water Cycle Locate Consume § Demand reduction § On premise leaks & waste § Discharge to sewers traffic water § Hydrological modeling § Weather modeling § Water Rights Capture and Store Deliver § Asset management § Flow management § Leaks and overflows § Interactions with § Recovery of treated Clean/ Desalinate § Quality monitoring § Filtration membranes § Energy for filtration or desalination § Quality monitoring § Weather modeling § Energy for pumping 16

The Urban Water Cycle Recycled/Treated Natural Water Sources Raw Water Transport Clean Water Supply Consumers Sewage Treatment 17

MASDAR – A Net-Zero City (2008) Solar Energy Generation District Cooling PHEV Transportation Water Desalination Resource Supplies Public Safety Residential & Industrial Consumers Question: How to allocate resources during a sandstorm? 18

Systems Dynamics for Urban Systems How do cities evolve? 19 © 2009 IBM Corporation

People Systems People to Services 20

Urban Systems are the composition of services derived from the natural and built environments that we model as a large number of GIS layers Social Systems People Commerce Culture Policy Services Energy Water Transport Building Services Information Resources Water Oil Air Minerals Infrastructure Land Use Roads Buildings Utilities Natural Environment Topography Environment Resources 21

Global Systems Science* Challenges for Urban Systems 1. Formal representation of Urban Systems 2. Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. • • • Structures of components Interactions (P 2 P, P 2 S, S 2 P, S 2 S) Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S) • • “Single View of the Truth” What real-world problems are we trying to solve? • Patterns & Principles to simplify model building • • • Understanding and insight Support for decision-making Rule of one hand – tipping points • • • Natural and Man-Made resources By-products, waste Economic outcomes • • • “Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production Match between intention and capabilities City as a Design Problem – How well does it work? • • Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age Planning for One The Need for Flower Collecting Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling Resource consumption & production View of “what is the City trying to do? ” Transformation of how the city works *See: http: //blog. global-systems-science. eu/ 22