Cisco Systems Korea suhongcisco com 02 3451 4910
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Cisco Systems Korea 홍 성 원 사장 suhong@cisco. com 02 -3451 -4910 011 -497 -4910
순서 인터넷 혁명과 새로운 세계(New World)의 탄생 - Internet/Internet Generation/Internet Pace - 음성/영상/데이터의 통합 - Public Data Internet 과 Telecom - Voice is Free 새로운 세계에서의 생존 전략(I, III) - 발상의 전환(Paradigm Change) - M&A - Partnering with the Best
인터넷 경제(디지털 경제) • 미국의 경우 - 인프레이션이 없는 계속 성장 - 임금의 안정 속에 최저의 실업 율 산업사회와 다른 새로운 경제 모델 The dramatic improvements in computing power, communication and IT appear to have been a major force behind this beneficial trend - FRB Greespan
통신 문화의 변화 Public Data 인터넷 텔레비전 전화 Public Voice Infrastructure 1876 -Today Public Video Infrastructure 1948 -Today Public Data Infrastructure 1969 -Today
Internet 과 Telecom - 영향 by Forrester Report, 1997
Telecom 과 Internet 의 비교 Telecom Internet 사업자 독점적/ 과점적 자유시장 성장 율 년 5~10% 년 100%이상 규제 심함 없음 기술개발 수년 몇 개월 연결방법 일대일, circuit 제한 없음, Packet 응용 Voice, fax, intracompany data Web, e-mail, voice, fax, intra- and inter-company data, e. Commerce
인터넷의 기존 통신 사업에의 영향 치환 +30% 탈취 +20% +10% 매 출 액 기준선 0 -10% -20% 성장 인터넷의 영향 -30% 1997 2002 2007 2012 예 • e. Commerce • Delivery of “bit” products • Hosting • Broadcasting • Networking of noncomputer devices 결과 • Focus shift to emerging economies • Relegation to sidelined citizens • Railroading
의 경우 SPRINT UNVEILS REVOLUTIONARY NETWORK Breakthroughs Give Customers High-Speed, High-Bandwidth, Multi-Function Capabilities Over Single Phone Line NEW YORK, June 2, 1998 -- Sprint announced today a revolutionary new telecommunications capability that can provide homes and businesses with virtually unlimited bandwidth over a single existing telephone line for simultaneous voice, video calls and data services. The beginning of a New World Era
발상전환의 예 Telco starting structure al c Lo Retail Applications Operations t s ong ce s ne L an le r e e r t Int Wi dis Telco strategy l ca o L t s ong ce s ne L an le r e e r t Int Wi dis
통신사업 구분 전망 Traditional boundaries by customers and technologies Data Technology separates voice & data Corporate Data Networks Corporate Telephony Networks Public Data Networks Public Telephony Networks Telephony Service Provider Enterprise Historically: Regulation separates enterprise & service provider; wireline & wireless Applications developed separately Today: Technology, global deregulation, applications driving towards Convergence
피 갈기 - M&A • AT&T : TCI(Tele. Communications Inc) • Lucent : Yurie, Ascend • Nortel : Bay, Shasta • Alcatel : Xylan • Ericsson: Torrent(Router), Touch. Wave(IP PBX) • Siemens : ? • General Electric Company(영국): Fore
기존 Telecom 장비업체 의 접근 방법 You can call a duck a swan. . . Public Data Network M&A R&D s Corporate Data Networks Corporate Data. Public Data Networks M&A Wireless Optical CPE Circuit Switches Corporate Telephony Networks Public Telephony Networks
Cisco 의 접근 방법 Routers Corporate Data Public Data Networks LAN switches Stratacom SUMMA 4 Selsius Geo. Tel Corporate Telephony Networks Public Telephony Networks
최고들의 제휴 Win. Tel. Co Windows. Intel. Cisco
Cisco The Most Successful Venture Company in History
미국의 3대 통신업체 CISCO Revenues $B ( telecom & datacom only ) trailing 4 Qtrs. Growth Employees $ 7. 8 33 % 13, 000 LUCENT NORTEL $ 24. 7 $ 15. 6 16% 20% 121, 000 73, 000 Market Cap $B $ 96 B $ 112 B Europe/Asia 39 % 20 % excluding Lucent Microelectr. $ 30 B 37%
과거 통신 장비업체와 비교 Telecom • Voice-oriented • Big (Goliath) • Incumbent • Regulationoriented CISCO • Data-oriented • Small (David) • Challenger • Market-oriented • Proprietary • Open • Slow growth • Fast growth
통신장비 제조업체 매출 비교 Communications Revenues (Last Four Quarters) ($B) Telecom Datacom
세계의 통신 기기 제조업체 시장 가치 비교 (US $B) 시장 가치(Market Capitalization) Source: Bloomberg, August 18, 1998
주식 시가 비교 ($B) $101 B $32 B Cisco Xylan 3 Com Newbridge Fore Cabletron Ascend Competitors Source: Bloomberg, November 13, 1998 52
Business Week’s Global 1000 Ranked by Market Capitalization ($B) 97년 #47 Cisco GM Chase 98년 #19 99년 2월 #5 Boeing Sony Honda Mitsubishi Nortel Dow Chemical TI Apple Note: Business Week, July 7, 1997 Apple data as of June 20, 1997
California 와 New Jersey 의 전쟁 • Qwest Communication- No new voice switch • TDM: Commuter Train - 공간의 손실에 의한 비효율 - 안전성, 안정성 • Packet: Cars in highway - 매우 효율적 - 교통 혼잡 시 취약 • “There market is big enough for both of them. ”
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