CIELO Energy Systems Baltazar Solano Rodrguez Research Associate

CIELO: Energy Systems Baltazar Solano Rodríguez Research Associate in Energy Systems Modelling UCL Energy Institute

Energy systems research at UCL • • http: //www. ucl. ac. uk/energy-models • • • Energy Systems modelling collaborations IEA-ETSAP Member of Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium (IAMC) Involved in Stanford EMF studies IPCC: contribution to the IPCC 5 th Assessment Report Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project The Inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison World Energy Council “World Energy Scenarios composing energy futures to 2050” ADVANCE ESPRC RESTLESS Whole. SEM: the UK's ground breaking multi- institution initiative to develop, integrate and apply state-of-the-art energy models

UK policy impact of our energy systems models

A new energy systems optimization model: TIMES MX-Regional • TIMES MX-Regional is currently being developed by UCL Energy Institute for SENER. The model is owned by SENER and is part of their new modelling tools portfolio. • The model was commissioned in Q 4 2016 and the first version is to be completed in Q 4 2017. • Bottom-up, technology rich, linear programming, dynamic partial equilibrium model approach with inter-temporal objective function minimising discounted cost.

SENER’s new energy modelling portfolio SIMISE ITESM Model BALMOREL Energy Models of Mexico TIMES MXR Simple E Three. Me Next: how to use, harmonise and make the most of these tools?

CIELO: Energy Systems To create a modelling framework that allows us to understand the trade-offs of different energy system transition pathways, as well as the impact of alternative scenarios and policies on Mexico’s long -term energy and carbon emission reduction targets Proposed Research: • • To create a multi-model framework To generate a broad range of scenarios to deal with uncertainty To analyse these scenarios and their policy implications Develop additional TIMES modelling capabilities

WP 1 – The creation of a modelling framework and TIMES energy systems modelling improvement • Creation of a modelling framework: This work package will examine the linkage of several modelling tools; a power systems model, an energy systems model, a macroeconomic model and a water systems model (optional) • This work package will involve the development of TIMES MX-Regional v 2. 0. This new version will include elastic demand response, increased temporal disaggregation and improved end-use demand sectorial modelling

WP 2 – Modelling low carbon pathways • Modelling uncertainty: This work package will involve the development of an MGA version of TIMES MXRegional and a stochastic version of the model • Creation of low carbon transition scenarios: This work package will use the modelling framework and improvements to create a wide range of scenarios considering various dimensions (e. g. political, technological, economical, etc. ) and reflecting their most relevant set of statuses

WP 3: Analysis and policy implications • This work package will use the set of modelling tools and scenarios developed in WP 1 and WP 2 to analyse a broad range of energy and climate futures and generate insights and recommendations for SENER policy-makers. This work package will involve working with government and energy industry stakeholders to better understand the key barriers and opportunities of alternative scenarios