China Threat or Opportunity or Both China with
China: Threat or Opportunity or Both
China, with Provinces
What We Know Already 1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat PRC vs. ROC 1972: Nixon to China 1979: US-China normalization
What is Taiwan? China: A Province of China US: A part of a united China, united in some undefined way and how that works is up to Taiwan and China as long as it is done peacefully Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China
Changes since 1970 s Taiwan democracy Lee Teng-hui 1988 -2000 Chen shui-bian 2000 -2008 Ma Ying-jeou 2008 --2016
Pres. Tsai Ing-wen 2016
Chinese Economic Reform • Deng Xiaoping
The Statistics http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998. stm
Shanghai, China
The Dilemma • Economic reform: yes • Political reform: No • But… Economic Reform Calls for Political reform
Tiananmen Square 1989
June 4, 1989
Bush 41 View US USSR PRC
Clinton View What is China? 1. Worst human rights violator on the planet 1. Take away MFN? 2. Biggest of the BEM 1993: China given a one year deadline of for human rights improvement
China as a Rising Power 1. Threat 2. Opportunity 3. Both
Threat – – Hegemonic Rival? Thucydides Trap
Opportunity – Huge Market
Both – Clinton • Engagement – GW Bush • “Responsible Stakeholder”
Obama • TPP Agreement • Comprehensive and Progressive TPP Text
China as Peer Competitor? 1. China’s Wealth? 2. China as an ideological competitor? 3. China as a military competitor?
Chinese Grand Strategy Deng Xiaoping Xi Jinping • Bide Time; Keep a Low Profile • “Chinese Dream”
Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http: //japanfocus. org/-Mark-Selden/3422
Belt and Road Initiative (One Belt, One Road)
2. Ideology State Capitalism Model
Authoritarian Capitalism • President Xi Jinping and President Putin
3. Global Military Competitor? USS Langley CV-1: 1922 Liaoning 2012
Or Regional Military Competitor China’s Nine-Dash Line
Competing Claims
Mischief Reef Chinese “Naval Base” 1990 s 2010 s
Chinese Air Base Construction in South China Sea
Philippine Claim to the Second Thomas Shoal
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982 • • 12 mile limit from a nation’s coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation 200 miles form a nation’s coast Exclusive economic rights for the nation Dispute resolution mechanism • Direct talks between the parties. • If they fail: • submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea • adjudication by the International Court of Justice • submission to binding international arbitration procedures • submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve binding third-party settlement Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.
But…Economic Interdependence Can we go to war without bankrupting each other and plunging the world into depression?
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