China and Southeast Asia INTO Lecture Dr Frank

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China and Southeast Asia INTO Lecture Dr Frank O’Donnell

China and Southeast Asia INTO Lecture Dr Frank O’Donnell

Structure of Presentation Chinese foreign and defence policy, 1949 -present Current Chinese worldviews and

Structure of Presentation Chinese foreign and defence policy, 1949 -present Current Chinese worldviews and policies Current regional tension points Southeast Asian responses to China Future regional prospects Shanghai

Learning Outcomes Jin-class SSBN Understand Chinese worldviews Analyse Chinese foreign and defence policies and

Learning Outcomes Jin-class SSBN Understand Chinese worldviews Analyse Chinese foreign and defence policies and their potential to cause instability Evaluate Southeast Asian and Western policy responses to China

Chinese foreign and defence policy: I Mao Zedong era (1949 -76): Domestic mismanagement Little

Chinese foreign and defence policy: I Mao Zedong era (1949 -76): Domestic mismanagement Little interest in foreign policy outside Taiwan, USSR 1972: Nixon visit leads to broader US engagement Deng Xiaoping era (1976 -92) Capitalist economic reforms, attracting Western investment Foreign and defence policy: “Hide your capacities, bide your time, accomplish things where possible. ” (The Economist, 2010) Mao (left) and Deng (right)

Chinese foreign and defence policy: II Jiang Zemin, early Hu Jintao era (1992 -2008):

Chinese foreign and defence policy: II Jiang Zemin, early Hu Jintao era (1992 -2008): “Peaceful rise”/”Harmonious world” slogans Growing foreign policy and military projection Substantial global economic and cultural diplomacy Later Hu Jintao, Xi Xinping era (2008 -present): Rising nationalism Foreign and defence policy aggressiveness “Chinese Dream” slogan

Chinese worldviews and policy approaches: I China is the preeminent Asian great power, culturally,

Chinese worldviews and policy approaches: I China is the preeminent Asian great power, culturally, economically, and militarily, and should be treated as such Chinese government domestically legitimised by: Sustaining high economic growth Framing itself as the leader of Chinese nationalism Foreign policy approaches: Taiwan Southeast Asia US

Chinese worldviews and policy approaches: II Defence policy (China defence white paper, 2015): “Active

Chinese worldviews and policy approaches: II Defence policy (China defence white paper, 2015): “Active defence” (but this includes “defence” of contested territories) “Balance between rights protection and stability maintenance” Military strategy Asymmetric strategy against US force strengths: Anti-ship ballistic missiles Anti-satellite capabilities Offensive cyber capabilities

Regional tension points South China Sea and freedom of navigation Air Defense Identification Zone

Regional tension points South China Sea and freedom of navigation Air Defense Identification Zone Island construction US freedom of navigation operation, Spratly Islands, Oct. 2015 Territorial claims against India Border standoff, Ladakh, 2014 Claims entirety of Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh

Southeast Asian responses ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Peaceful diplomatic engagement with China

Southeast Asian responses ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Peaceful diplomatic engagement with China However, China prefers bilateral rather than multilateral diplomacy Individual Hedging “Seeking positive relations with all great powers in a region” (Chen and Yang, 2013) Insurance against all eventualities ASEAN Member States

Future regional prospects Continuing regional and Western economic integration Defence tensions surrounding freedom of

Future regional prospects Continuing regional and Western economic integration Defence tensions surrounding freedom of navigation Western approach 1: Positive cooperation to encourage China to adhere to rules of international order Kissinger, Brzezinski, Obama administration 2008 -10, UK government Oct. 2015 -present Western approach 2: Containment and pressure Japan, India, Obama administration 2010 -present The Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier, commissioned 2012

Learning Outcomes Jin-class SSBN Understand Chinese worldviews Analyse Chinese foreign and defence policies and

Learning Outcomes Jin-class SSBN Understand Chinese worldviews Analyse Chinese foreign and defence policies and their potential to cause instability Evaluate Southeast Asian and Western policy responses to China

Questions Slides and reference texts: tinyurl. com/intoslides

Questions Slides and reference texts: tinyurl. com/intoslides