Cheat or Honest An Experiment Rachel Fewster s

Cheat or Honest? An Experiment Rachel Fewster s ic t is t a t S f o t n e Departm

Catch the Cheats! • I am a fraud investigator, you are the “suspects”! • Each group picks a status: “Honest” or “Cheat” • You can change the status that you pick if you like, but WRITE DOWN your new status on your slip (no erasing the evidence!!)

HONEST GROUPS: 1. Pick a column on the atlas sheets: 1. “Population”, “Area sq km”, 2. or “Area sq miles” 2. Pick a start-point wherever you like 3. Copy down 100 entries from your column: just the first two digits is enough. E. g. for 2 691 write 2600 (don’t round it) For 782 write 780.

CHEATING GROUPS: 1. Make up the numbers out of your head! 2. Again just use two digits, e. g. 530, 72000, 8800000, … 3. You can use the atlas sheets as a guide to range of numbers, but you must MAKE YOUR NUMBERS UP.

Now for the investigation! 1. UNDERNEATH your numbers … 2. Make out a TALLY LIST for FIRST DIGITS in your output:

1. Make out a 2. TALLY LIST for 3. FIRST DIGITS 4. in your output: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 I I IIII III

2. Rewrite the tally as numbers 3. Title “First Digit” First Digit 1 I 1 2 I 1 3 III 3 0 4 5 I 1 6 IIII 4 7 I 1 8 II 2 9 III 3

First Digit 1 I 1 2 I 1 3 III 3 7. Fold 4 your 0 paper, tear off the tallies from 5 the. I rest. 1 4 IIII 6 8. Write your name on the tallies section 1 I 7 and hand in! 8 II 2 9 III 3

Can we catch the cheats ? ? ? See the R demonstration at: http: //www. stat. auckland. ac. nz/~fewster/benford/