Chapter Two Determinants of Interest Rates Mc GrawHillIrwin

Chapter Two Determinants of Interest Rates Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Interest Rate Fundamentals l Nominal interest rates: the interest rates actually observed in financial markets l l Used to determine fair present value and prices of securities Two types of components l Opportunity cost l Adjustments for individual security characteristics 2 -2

Real Interest Rates l Additional purchasing power required to forego current consumption l l l What causes differences in nominal and real interest rates? If you wish to earn a 3% real return and prices are expected to increase by 2%, what rate must you charge? Irving Fisher first postulated that interest rates contain a premium for expected inflation. 2 -3

Loanable Funds Theory l l l Loanable funds theory explains interest rates and interest rate movements Views level of interest rates in financial markets as a result of the supply and demand for loanable funds Domestic and foreign households, businesses, and governments all supply and demand loanable funds 2 -4

Supply and Demand of Loanable Funds Interest Rate Demand Supply Quantity of Loanable Funds Supplied and Demanded 2 -5

Net Supply of Funds in U. S. in 2010 Source Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Matrix Net Supply in Billions Year 2010 data of Dollars Households & NPOs $ 786. 9 Business Nonfinancial 75. 3 State & Local Govt. -19. 3 Federal Government -1378. 6 Financial Sector -178. 3 Foreign 324. 3 Totals (Discrepancy) -$389. 7 2 -6

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Determinants of Household Savings 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Interest rates and tax policy Income and wealth: the greater the wealth or income, the greater the amount saved, Attitudes about saving versus borrowing, Credit availability, the greater the amount of easily obtainable consumer credit the lower the need to save, Job security and belief in soundness of entitlements, 2 -8

Determinants of Foreign Funds Invested in the U. S. 1. 2. 3. 4. Relative interest rates and returns on global investments Expected exchange rate changes Safe haven status of U. S. investments Foreign central bank investments in the U. S. 2 -9

Determinants of Foreign Funds Invested in the U. S. Source: Economist, February 2011 2 -10

Federal Government Demand for Funds Source: CBO 2011 report, http: //www. cbo. gov/ftpdocs/74 xx/doc 7492/08 -17 Budget. Update. pdf l 2 -11

Federal Government Demand for Funds l Federal debt held by the public was at $9. 0 trillion at end of 2010 (62% GDP) and is projected to grow to $17. 4 trillion by 2020 (76% of projected 2020 GDP, 120% of current GDP) § Large potential for crowding out and/or dependence on foreign investment 2 -12

Federal Government Demand for Funds l Total Federal Debt is currently $14. 1 trillion (97% GDP) and is projected to grow to $23. 1 trillion by 2020 (64% increase) o Interest expense is projected to grow to 3. 5% of GDP by 2020 2 -13

Shifts in Supply and Demand Curves change Equilibrium Interest Rates Increased supply of loanable funds Increased demand for loanable funds Interest Rate SS DD SS* i* E* i** Q* Q** Quantity of Funds Supplied DD DD* E Q* Q** SS E* Quantity of Funds Demanded 2 -14

Factors that Cause Supply and Demand Curves to Shift 2 -15

Factors that Cause Supply and Demand Curves to Shift 2 -16

Factors that Cause Supply and Demand Curves to Shift 2 -17

Determinants of Interest Rates for Individual Securities l i j* l = f(IP, RIR, DRPj, LRPj, SCPj, MPj) Inflation (IP) IP = [(CPIt+1) – (CPIt)]/(CPIt) x (100/1) l Real Interest Rate (RIR) and the Fisher effect RIR = i – Expected (IP) 2 -18

Determinants of Interest Rates for Individual Securities (cont’d) l Default Risk Premium (DRP) DRPj = ijt – i. Tt ijt = interest rate on security j at time t i. Tt = interest rate on similar maturity U. S. Treasury security at time t l l l Liquidity Risk (LRP) Special Provisions (SCP) Term to Maturity (MP) 2 -19

Term Structure of Interest Rates: the Yield Curve (a) Upward sloping (b) Inverted or downward sloping (c) Flat Yield to Maturity (a) (c) (b) Time to Maturity 2 -20

Unbiased Expectations Theory l Long-term interest rates are geometric averages of current and expected future short-term interest rates 1 R N = actual N-period rate today N = term to maturity, N = 1, 2, …, 4, … 1 R 1 = actual current one-year rate today E(ir 1) = expected one-year rates for years, i = 1 to N 2 -21

Liquidity Premium Theory l Long-term interest rates are geometric averages of current and expected future short-term interest rates plus liquidity risk premiums that increase with maturity Lt = liquidity premium for period t L 2 < L 3 < …<LN 2 -22

Market Segmentation Theory l l l Individual investors and FIs have specific maturity preferences Interest rates are determined by distinct supply and demand conditions within many maturity segments Investors and borrowers deviate from their preferred maturity segment only when adequately compensated to do so 2 -23

Implied Forward Rates l l A forward rate (f) is an expected rate on a shortterm security that is to be originated at some point in the future The one-year forward rate for any year N in the future is: 2 -24

Time Value of Money and Interest Rates l The time value of money is based on the notion that a dollar received today is worth more than a dollar received at some future date l Simple interest: interest earned on an l investment is not reinvested Compound interest: interest earned on an investment is reinvested 2 -25

Present Value of a Lump Sum l Discount future payments using current interest rates to find the present value (PV) PV = FVt[1/(1 + r)]t = FVt(PVIFr, t) PV = present value of cash flow FVt = future value of cash flow (lump sum) received in t periods r = interest rate period t = number of years in investment horizon PVIFr, t = present value interest factor of a lump sum 2 -26

Future Value of a Lump Sum l The future value (FV) of a lump sum received at the beginning of an investment horizon FVt = PV (1 + r)t = PV(FVIFr, t) FVIFr, t = future value interest factor of a lump sum 2 -27

Relation between Interest Rates and Present and Future Values Present Value (PV) Future Value (FV) Interest Rate 2 -28

Present Value of an Annuity l The present value of a finite series of equal cash flows received on the last day of equal intervals throughout the investment horizon PMT = periodic annuity payment PVIFAr, t = present value interest factor of an annuity 2 -29

Future Value of an Annuity l The future value of a finite series of equal cash flows received on the last day of equal intervals throughout the investment horizon FVIFAr, t = future value interest factor of an annuity 2 -30

Effective Annual Return l Effective or equivalent annual return (EAR) is the return earned or paid over a 12 -month period taking compounding into account EAR = (1 + rper period)c – 1 c = the number of compounding periods per year 2 -31

Financial Calculators l Setting up a financial calculator l l l Number of digits shown after decimal point Number of compounding periods per year Key inputs/outputs (solve for one of five) N = number of compounding periods I/Y = annual interest rate PV = present value (i. e. , current price) PMT = a constant payment every period FV = future value (i. e. , future price) 2 -32