Chapter TwentyThree Managing Risk off the Balance Sheet

Managing Risk off the Balance Sheet l l Managers are increasingly turning to off-balance-sheet (OBS) instruments such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps to hedge the risks their financial institutions (FIs) face l interest rate risk l foreign exchange risk l credit risk FIs also generate fee income from derivative securities transactions 23 -2

Managing Risk off the Balance Sheet l l A spot contract is an agreement to transact involving the immediate exchange of assets and funds A forward contract is a negotiated agreement to transact at a point in the future with the terms of the deal set today l Any amount can be negotiated l Not generally liquid, so each party must perform l Counterparty default risk can be significant 23 -3

Managing Risk off the Balance Sheet l A futures contract is an exchange-traded agreement to transact involving the future exchange of a set amount of assets for a price that is fixed today l l l Futures are liquid, most traders close their position before the delivery date so the underlying transaction may never take place Futures contracts are marked to market daily—i. e. , the traders’ gains and losses on outstanding futures contracts are realized each day as futures prices change Exchange clearinghouse stands behind all contracts so there is no counterparty default risk and trading is anonymous 23 -4

Hedging with Forwards l l A naïve hedge is a hedge of a cash asset on a direct dollar-for-dollar basis with a forward (or futures) contract Managers can predict capital loss (ΔP) using the duration formula: where P = the initial value of an asset D = the duration of the asset R = the interest rate (and thus ΔR is the change in interest) l FIs can immunize assets against risk by using hedging to fully protect against adverse movements in interest rates 23 -5

Hedging with Futures l l Microhedging is using futures (or forwards) contracts to hedge a specific asset or liability l basis risk is a residual risk that occurs in a hedged position because the movement in an asset’s spot price is not perfectly correlated with the movement in the price of the asset delivered under a futures (or forwards) contract l firms use short positions in futures contracts to hedge an asset that declines in value as interest rates rise Macrohedging is hedging the entire (leverage-adjusted) duration gap of an FI 23 -6

Futures Gain and Loss and Hedging with Futures 23 -7

Hedging Considerations l Microhedging and macrohedging l Risk-return considerations l l l FIs hedge based on expectations of future interest rate movements FIs may microhedge, macrohedge, or even overhedge Accounting rules can influence hedging strategies l l l in 1997 FASB required that all gains and losses from derivatives used to hedge must be recognized immediately U. S. companies must report derivative-related trading activity in annual reports futures contracts are not subject to risk-based capital requirements imposed by bank regulators (forward can be) 23 -8

Hedging Considerations l Routine hedging: In a full hedge or ‘routine hedge’ the bank eliminates all or most of its risk exposure such as interest rate risk l Most managers engage in partial hedging or what the text terms ‘selective hedging’ where some risks are reduced and others are borne by the institution 23 -9

The Effects of Hedging 23 -10

Options l l Buying a call option on a bond l As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, and the call option buyer has a large profit potential l As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, but the call option losses are no larger than the call option premium Writing a call option on a bond l As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, and the call option writer has a large potential loss l As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, but the call option gains will be no larger than the call option premium 23 -11

Purchased and Written Call Option Positions 23 -12

Options l l Buying a put option on a bond l As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and the put option buyer has a large profit potential l As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, but the put option losses are bounded by the put option premium Writing a put option on a bond l As interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and the put option writer has large potential losses l As interest rates fall, bond prices rise, but the put option gains are bounded by the put option premium 23 -13

Purchased and Written Put Option Positions 23 -14

Options l l l Many types of options are used by FIs to hedge l exchange-traded options l over-the-counter (OTC) options l options embedded in securities l caps, collars, and floors Buying a put option on a bond can hedge interest rate risk exposure related to bonds that are held as assets l the put option truncates the downside losses l the put option scales down the upside profits, but still leaves upside profit potential Similarly, buying a call option on a bond can hedge interest rate risk exposure related to bonds held on the liability side of the balance sheet 23 -15

Hedging with Put Options Payoff for a bond held as an asset Payoff Gain Net payoff function 0 Bond price X -P Payoff Loss Payoff from buying a put on a bond 23 -16

Caps, Floors, and Collars l l l Buying a cap means buying a call option, or a succession of call options, on interest rates rather than on bond prices l like buying insurance against an (excessive) increase in interest rates Buying a floor is akin to buying a put option on interest rates l seller compensates the buyer should interest rates fall below the floor rate l like caps, floors can have one or a succession of exercise dates A collar amounts to a simultaneous position in a cap and a floor l usually involves buying a cap and selling a floor to offset cost of cap 23 -17

Contingent Credit Risk l Contingent credit risk is the risk that the counterparty defaults on payment obligations l forward contracts and all OTC derivatives are exposed to counterparty default risk as they are nonstandard contracts entered into bilaterally 23 -18

Swaps l l Swap agreements are contracts where two parties agree to exchange a series of payments over time There are several types of swaps: l Interest rate swaps l Parties agree to swap interest payments on a stated notional principal amount for a set period of time (some are for more than 5 years) (No principal is usually exchanged) l Currency swaps l Parties agree to swap interest and principal payments in different currencies at a preset exchange rate 23 -19

Swaps l Types of swaps (continued) l Credit default swaps (aka credit swaps) l Total return swap (TRS): o A TRS buyer agrees to make a fixed rate payment to the seller plus the capital gain or minus the capital loss on the underlying instrument o In exchange, the TRS seller may pay a variable or a fixed rate of interest to the buyer o Pure Credit Swap (PCS): o The swap buyer makes fixed payments to the seller and the seller pays the swap buyer only in the event of default. The payment is usually equal to par – secondary market value of the underlying instrument 23 -20

Swaps Credit Swaps and the crisis l l Lehman Brothers and AIG sold credit default swaps worth billions of dollars in payments insuring mortgagebacked securities (MBS) When mortgage security values collapsed, required outflows at these firms far exceeded capital Other institutions invested more heavily in MBS because they were insured; exposure to mortgage markets was more widespread than it would have been otherwise Credit swaps may cause lenders to make loans they would not otherwise make and earn fee income on other services offered to borrowers. 23 -21

Swaps l l There also some less common types of swaps: l commodity swaps l equity swaps The market for swaps has grown enormously in recent years l The notional value of swap contracts outstanding at U. S. commercial banks was more than $146. 9 trillion in 2010 23 -22

Swaps l Hedging with interest rate swaps: An Example l a money center bank (MCB) may have floating-rate loans and fixed-rate liabilities l the MCB has a negative duration gap l a savings bank (SB) may have fixed-rate mortgages funded by short-term liabilities such as retail deposits l the SB has a positive duration gap l accordingly, an interest swap can be entered into between the MCB and the SB either: l directly between the two FIs OR l indirectly through a broker or agent who charges a fee to accept the credit risk exposure and guarantee the cash flows 23 -23

Swaps l l l A plain vanilla swap is: l A standard agreement where one participant pays a fixed rate of interest and the other party pays a variable rate of interest on a stated notional principal; no principal is exchanged The SB sends fixed-rate interest payments to the MCB l thus, the MCB’s fixed-rate inflows are now matched to its fixed-rate payments the MCB sends variable-rate interest payments to the SB l thus, the SB’s variable-rate inflows are now matched to its variable-rate payments 23 -24

Swap Hedging Example Illustrated 23 -25

Swaps l Hedging with currency swaps: An Example l Consider a U. S. FI with fixed-rate $ denominated assets and fixed-rate £ denominated liabilities l Also, consider a U. K. FI with fixed-rate £ denominated assets and fixed-rate $ denominated liabilities l The FIs can engage in a currency swap to hedge their foreign exchange exposure l That is, the FIs agree on a fixed exchange rate at the inception of the swap agreement for the exchange of cash flows at some point in the future l Both FIs have effectively hedged their foreign exchange exposure by matching the denominations of their cash flows 23 -26

Currency Swap Hedging Example Illustrated 23 -27

Hedging with Credit Swaps Pure Credit Swap 23 -28

Credit Risk on Swaps l l The growth of the over-the-counter swap market was a major factor underlying the imposition of the BIS riskbased capital requirements l the fear was that out-of-the-money counterparties would have incentives to default l BIS now requires capital to be held against interest rate, currency, and other swaps Credit risk on swaps differs from that on loans l Netting: only the difference between the fixed and the floating payment is exchanged between swap parties l Payment flows are often interest and not principal l Standby letters of credit are required of poor-quality swap participants 23 -29

Comparing Hedging Methods l l l Writing vs. buying options l writing options limits upside profits, but not downside losses l buying options limits downside losses, but not upside profits l CBs are prohibited from writing options in some areas Futures vs. options hedging l futures produce symmetric gains and losses l options protect against losses, but do not fully reduce gains Swaps vs. forwards, futures, and options l swaps and forwards are OTC contracts, unlike options and futures l futures are marked to market daily l swaps can be written for longer-time horizons 23 -30

Regulation l l Regulators specify “permissible activities” that FIs may engage in Institutions engaging in permissible activities are subject to regulatory oversight Regulators judge the overall integrity of FIs engaging in derivatives activity based on capital adequacy regulation The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are the functional regulators of derivatives securities markets 23 -31

Regulation l The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) have implemented uniform guidelines that require banks to: l l l establish internal guidelines regarding hedging activity establish trading limits disclose large contract positions that materially affect the risk to shareholders and outside investors As of 2000 the FASB requires all firms to reflect the marked-to-market value of their derivatives positions in their financial statements Prior to the Dodd-Frank Act, swap markets were governed by relatively little regulation—except indirectly at FIs through bank regulatory agencies 23 -32

Regulation l The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 requires most OTC derivatives to be exchange-traded to ensure performance by all parties l The act also requires OTC derivatives be regulated by the SEC and/or the CFTC 23 -33