Chapter 9 Management of Economic Exposure Dr Yaqoub

Chapter 9 Management of Economic Exposure Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 1

Chapter Outline § How to Measure Economic Exposure § Operating Exposure: Definition § An Illustration of Operating Exposure § Determinants of Operating Exposure § Managing Operating Exposure § Summary Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 2 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Three Types of Exposures § Transaction exposure: § the sensitivity of “realized” domestic currency values of the firm's contractual cash flows denominated in foreign currencies to unexpected exchange rate changes. § Economic exposure: § the extent to which the value of the firm would be affected by unanticipated changes in exchange rates. § Translation exposure: § the potential that the firm's consolidated financial statements can be affected by changes in exchange rates. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 3 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Economic Exposure § Changes in exchange rates can affect not only firms that are directly engaged in international trade but also purely domestic firms. § If the domestic firm’s products compete with imported goods, then their competitive position is affected by the strength or weakness of the local currency. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 4 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Economic Exposure § Consider a U. S. bicycle manufacturer who sources, produces, and sells only in the U. S. § Since the firm’s product competes against imported bicycles, it is subject to foreign exchange exposure. § Their customers are comparing the cost and features of the domestic bicycle against Japanese, Taiwanese, and Italian bicycles. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 5 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Economic Exposure § Exchange rate risk is applied to the firm’s competitive position. § Any anticipated changes in the exchange rates would already have been discounted and reflected in the firm’s value. § Economic exposure can be defined as the extent to which the value of the firm would be affected by unanticipated changes in exchange rates. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 6 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Exhibit 9. 1: Exchange Rate Exposure of U. S. Industry Portfolios • A negative (positive) forex beta means that stock returns tend to move down (up) as the dollar appreciates. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 7 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

How to Measure Economic Exposure § Economic exposure is the sensitivity of the future home currency value of (1) the firm’s assets and liabilities and (2) the firm’s operating cash flow to random changes in exchange rates. § There exist statistical measurements of sensitivity. § Sensitivity of the future home currency values of the firm’s assets and liabilities to random changes in exchange rates. § Sensitivity of the firm’s operating cash flows to random changes in exchange rates. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 8 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

EXHIBIT 9. 2 Channels of Economic Exposure Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 9 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

How to Measure Asset Exposure § If a U. S. MNC were to run a regression on the dollar value ( P) of its British assets on the dollar-pound exchange rate, S($/£), the regression would be of the form: P = a + b×S + e Where a is the regression constant. e is the random error term with mean zero. the regression coefficient b measures the sensitivity of the dollar value of the assets (P) to the exchange rate, S. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 10 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

How to Measure Asset Exposure The exposure coefficient, b, is defined as follows: b= Cov(P, S) Var(S) Where Cov(P, S) is the covariance between the dollar value of the asset and the exchange rate, and Var(S) is the variance of the exchange rate. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 11 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

How to Measure Asset Exposure § The exposure coefficient shows that there are two sources of economic exposure: 1. The variance of the exchange rate. 2. The covariance between the dollar value of the asset and exchange rate. b= Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Cov(P, S) Var(S) Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 12 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Example § Suppose a U. S. firm has an asset in France whose local currency price is random. § For simplicity, suppose there are only three states of the world and each state is equally likely to occur. § The future local currency price of this French asset (P*) as well as the future exchange rate (S) will be determined, depending on the realized state of the world. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 13 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Example (continued) State Probability P* S P=S×P* 1 1/3 € 980 $1. 40/€ $1, 372 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 070 $1. 60/€ $1, 712 1 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 40/€ $1, 400 2 1/3 € 933 $1. 50/€ $1, 400 3 1/3 € 875 $1. 60/€ $1, 400 1 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 40/€ $1, 400 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 60/€ $1, 600 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 14 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Example (continued) § In case one, the local currency price of the asset and the exchange rate are positively correlated. § This gives rise to substantial exchange rate risk. State Probability P* S P=S×P* 1 1/3 € 980 $1. 40/€ $1, 372 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 070 $1. 60/€ $1, 712 Case 1 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 15 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Calculating exposure coefficient State Prob. P* S P=S×P* 1 1/3 € 980 $1. 40/€ $1, 372 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 070 $1. 60/€ $1, 712 Case 1 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 16 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Example (continued) § In case two, the local currency price of the asset and the exchange rate are negatively correlated. § This ameliorates the exchange rate risk substantially (completely in this example). State Probability P* S P=S×P* 1 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 40/€ $1, 400 2 1/3 € 933 $1. 50/€ $1, 400 3 1/3 € 875 $1. 60/€ $1, 400 Case 2 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 17 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Example (continued) § In case three, the local currency price of the asset is fixed at € 1, 000. § This “contractual” exposure can be completely hedged using the methods we learned in Chapter 8. State Probability P* S P=S×P* 1 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 40/€ $1, 400 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 60/€ $1, 600 Case 3 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 18 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Financial Hedging § The goal is to stabilize the firm’s cash flows in the near term. § Financial hedging is distinct from operational hedging. § Financial hedging involves the use of derivative securities such as currency swaps, futures, forwards, and currency options, among others. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 19 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Financial Hedging § We calculated the exposure coefficient b=Cov(P, S)/Var(S) which represents the sensitivity of the future dollar value of the foreign asset to random changes in exchange rate. § Once the magnitude of exposure (b) is known, the firm can hedge the exposure by simply selling the exposure forward. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 20 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Financial Hedging Example: Case 1 § Financial hedging requires a knowledge of the extent to which the firm’s operating cash flows are affected by the exchange rate. § In the earlier example, consider Case 1. § Here the foreign currency earnings are positively correlated with the exchange rate changes. State Probability P* S P=S×P* 1 1/3 € 980 $1. 40/€ $1, 372 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 070 $1. 60/€ $1, 712 Case 1 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 21 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Case 1: Computation of Beta 1. Computation of Means P = 1/3 × (€ 1, 372 + € 1, 500 + € 1, 712) = € 1, 528 S = 1/3 × ($1. 40/€ + $1. 50/€ + $1. 60/€) = $1. 50/€ 2. Computation of Variance and Covariance Var(S) = 1/3 × [($1. 40/€ – $1. 50/€)2 + ($1. 50/€ – $1. 50/€)2 + ($1. 60/€ – $1. 50/€)2] = 0. 02/3 Cov(Pi S) = 1/3 ×[(€ 1, 372 – € 1, 528)($1. 40/€ – $1. 50/€) + (€ 1, 500 – € 1, 528)($1. 50/€ – $1. 50/€) + (€ 1, 712 – € 1, 528)($1. 60/€ – $1. 50/€)] = 34/3 3. Computation of the Exposure Coefficient b = Cov(P, S)/Var(S) = (34/3)/(0. 02/3) = € 1, 700 State Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Probability P* S P=S×P* 1 1/3 € 980 $1. 40/€ $1, 372 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 070 $1. 60/€ $1, 712 Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 22 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Financial Hedging Example: Case 1 At T = 0, if we sell € 1, 700 forward at the 1 -year forward rate, F 1($/€), that prevails at time zero. Suppose that F 1($/€) = $1. 50. T=0 T=1 P* S 1($/€) € 980 × $1. 40/€ 1 = $1, 372 Proceeds from forward contract 1700*(F-S)=1700(1. 5 -1. 4)=$170 net cash flow =$1, 542 € 1, 000 × $1. 50/€ 1 = $1, 500 1700*(F-S)=1700(1. 5 -1. 5)=$0 net cash flow =$1, 500 € 1, 070 × $1. 60/€ 1 = $1, 712 1700*(F-S)=1700(1. 5 -1. 6)= - $170 net cash flow =$1, 542 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 23 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Financial Hedging Example: Case 2 § In Case 2, we have a built-in hedge, requiring no derivatives. § You can also calculate b as zero using the same previous methodology. State Probability P* S S×P* 1 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 40/€ $1, 400 2 1/3 € 933 $1. 50/€ $1, 400 3 1/3 € 875 $1. 60/€ $1, 400 Case 2 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 24 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Financial Hedging Example: Case 3 § Financial hedging requires a knowledge of the extent to which the firm’s operating cash flows are affected by the exchange rate. § In an earlier example from Chapter 8, we showed how to hedge case three: simply sell b = € 1, 000 forward or use a money market hedge. State Probability P* S S×P* 1 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 40/€ $1, 400 2 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 50/€ $1, 500 3 1/3 € 1, 000 $1. 60/€ $1, 600 Case 3 Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 25 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Financial Hedging Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 26 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Variability of the dollar value of assets Var(P) § Total variability of the dollar value of assets Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Exchange rate related Independent of exchange rate movement Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 27 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Problem 1 § Suppose that you hold a piece of land in the City of London that you may want to sell in one year. As a U. S. resident, you are concerned with the dollar value of the land. Assume that, if the British economy booms in the future, the land will be worth £ 2, 000 and one British pound will be worth $1. 40. If the British economy slows down, on the other hand, the land will be worth less, i. e. , £ 1, 500, but the pound will be stronger, i. e. , $1. 50/£. You feel that the British economy will experience a boom with a 60% probability and a slow-down with a 40% probability. § (a) Estimate your exposure b to the exchange risk. § (b) Compute the variance of the dollar value of your property that is attributable to the exchange rate uncertainty. § (c) Discuss how you can hedge your exchange risk exposure and also examine the consequences of hedging. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 28 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Problem 2 § A U. S. firm holds an asset in France and faces the following scenario: State 1 State 2 State 3 State 4 Probability 25% 25% Spot rate $1. 20/€ $1. 10/€ $1. 00/€ $0. 90/€ P* € 1500 € 1400 € 1300 € 1200 P $1, 800 $1, 540 $1, 300 $1, 080 § In the above table, P* is the euro price of the asset held by the U. S. firm and P is the dollar price of the asset. § (a) Compute the exchange exposure faced by the U. S. firm. § (b) What is the variance of the dollar price of this asset if the U. S. firm remains unhedged against this exposure? § If the U. S. firm hedges against this exposure using the forward contract, what is the variance of the dollar value of the hedged position? Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 29 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Problem 3 § Suppose you are a British venture capitalist holding a major stake in an e-commerce start-up in Silicon Valley. As a British resident, you are concerned with the pound value of your U. S. equity position. Assume that if the American economy booms in the future, your equity stake will be worth $1, 000, and the exchange rate will be $1. 40/£. If the American economy experiences a recession, on the other hand, your American equity stake will be worth $500, 000, and the exchange rate will be $1. 60/£. You assess that the American economy will experience a boom with a 70 percent probability and a recession with a 30 percent probability. § (a) Estimate your exposure to the exchange risk. § (b) Compute the variance of the pound value of your American equity position that is attributable to the exchange rate uncertainty. § (c) How would you hedge this exposure? If you hedge, what is the variance of the pound value of the hedged position? § (Answers: a) $4, 511, 976 b) 33, 997, 738, 800 c) 33, 903, 080, 400 33, 997, 738, 800 ≈ 0 ) Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 30 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Operating Exposure: Definition § The effect of random changes in exchange rates on the firm’s competitive position, which is not readily measurable. § A good definition of operating exposure is the extent to which the firm’s operating cash flows are affected by the exchange rate. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 31 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

An Illustration of Operating Exposure § Suppose that a U. S. computer company has a wholly owned British subsidiary, Albion Computers PLC, that manufactures and sells personal computers in the U. K. market. § Albion Computers imports microprocessors from Intel, which sells them for $512 per unit. § At the current exchange rate of $1. 60 per pound, each Intel microprocessor costs £ 320. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 32 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

An Illustration of Operating Exposure § Consider the possible effect of a depreciation of the pound from $1. 60 to $1. 40 per pound. § The dollar operating cash flow may change following a pound depreciation due to: 1. The competitive effect: A pound depreciation may affect operating cash flow in pounds by altering the firm's competitive position in the marketplace 2. The conversion effect: A given operating cash flow in pounds will be converted into a lower dollar amount after the pound depreciation Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 33 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

An Illustration of Operating Exposure Projected Operations for Albion Computers PLC: Benchmark Case ($1. 60/£) Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 34 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Case 1: No variables change, except the price of the imported input Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 35 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Case 2: The selling price as well as the price of the imported input changes, with no other change. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 36 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Case 3: All the variables change. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 37 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Summary of Operating Exposure Effect of Pound Depreciation on Albion Computers PLC Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 38 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Determinants of Operating Exposure § Recall that operating exposure cannot be readily determined from the firm’s accounting statements as can transaction exposure. § The firm’s operating exposure is determined by: § The market structure of inputs and products; how competitive or how § monopolistic the markets facing the firm are. The firm’s ability to adjust its markets, product mix, and sourcing in response to exchange rate changes. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 39 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Managing Operating Exposure 1. Selecting Low Cost Production Sites 2. Flexible Sourcing Policy 3. Diversification of the Market 4. R&D and Product Differentiation Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 40 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Selecting Low Cost Production Sites § A firm may wish to diversify the location of its production sites to mitigate the effect of exchange rate movements. § For example, Honda built North American factories in response to a strong yen, but later found itself importing more cars from Japan due to a weak yen and increased exchange rate volatility. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 41 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Flexible Sourcing Policy § Sourcing does not apply only to components, but also to “guest workers. ” § For example, Japan Air Lines hired foreign crews to remain competitive in international routes in the face of a strong yen, but later contemplated a reverse strategy in the face of a weak yen and rising domestic unemployment. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 42 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Diversification of the Market § Selling in multiple markets to take advantage of economies of scale and diversification of exchange rate risk. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 43 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

R&D and Product Differentiation § Successful research and development (R&D) allows for: § Cost-cutting § Enhanced productivity § Product differentiation § Successful product differentiation gives the firm less elastic demand—which may translate into less exchange rate risk. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 44 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Summary § Exchange rate changes can systematically affect the value of the firm by influencing the firm’s operating cash flows as well as the domestic currency values of its assets and liabilities. § It is conventional to classify foreign currency exposure into three classes: § Economic exposure can be defined as the extent to which the value of the firm would be affected by unexpected changes in exchange rates. § Transaction exposure is defined as the sensitivity of realized domestic currency values of the firm’s contractual cash flows denominated in foreign currencies to unexpected exchange rate changes. § Translation exposure refers to the potential that the firm’s consolidated financial statements can be affected by changes in exchange rates. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 45 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Summary (continued) § If the firm has an asset in a foreign country, its exposure to currency risk can be properly measured by the coefficient in regressing the dollar value of the foreign asset on the exchange rate. § Once the magnitude of exposure is known, the firm can hedge the exposure simply by selling the exposure forward. § Unlike the exposure of assets and liabilities that are listed in accounting statements, operating exposure depends on the effect of random exchange rate changes on the firm’s future cash flows, which are not readily measurable. Despite this difficulty, it is important to properly manage operating exposure since operating exposure may account for a larger portion of the firm’s total exposure than contractual exposure. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 46 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Summary (concluding) § A firm’s operating exposure is determined by § (a) the structure of the markets in which the firm sources its inputs and sells its products, and § (b) the firm’s ability to mitigate the effect of exchange rate changes on its competitive position by adjusting markets, product mix, and sourcing. § Since a firm is exposed to exchange risk mainly via the effect of exchange rate changes on its competitive position, it is important to consider exchange exposure management in the context of the firm’s overall long-term strategic plan. The objective of exposure management is to stabilize cash flow in the face of fluctuating exchange rates. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 47 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.

Summary (concluded) § To manage operating exposure, the firm can use various strategies, such as § § § (a) choosing low-cost production sites, (b) maintaining flexible sourcing policy, (c) diversification of the market, (d) product differentiation, and (e) financial hedging using currency options and forward contracts. Dr. Yaqoub Alabdullah Kuwait University - College of Business Administration 48 © Mc. Graw-Hill Inc.