Chapter 9 Evaluate Inductive Reasoning and Spot Inductive

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • Evaluating Generalizations – A generalization may be

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – People over the age of 60 tend

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – It is easy to imagine scenarios in

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – Asking four questions and finding satisfactory answers

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • Coincidences, Correlations, and Causes – The progression

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • We may discover that the two events

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – A given coincidence might occur – Correlations

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – Enable us to explain, predict, and control

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • Erroneous Generalization – At times, we generalize

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – False Dilemma • A real dilemma is

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – False Cause • When two events occur

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – Slippery Slope • Everyone knows that simply

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Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • Evaluating Generalizations – A generalization may be based on data gathered systematically or unsystematically – The premises report personal experiences, conversations focused on these topics: • Or information derived from historical records or opinion surveys © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – People over the age of 60 tend to prefer to listen to oldies – 73 percent of the hotel room beds in this city are infested with bedbugs – It’s probably going to be cloudy and cold in San Francisco if you go in August © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – It is easy to imagine scenarios in which the information in the premises is true • But the conclusion may not apply – To evaluate the logical strength of inductive generalizations: • We need to do more than find a single counterexample © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – Asking four questions and finding satisfactory answers to each of them • • Was the Correct Group Sampled? Were the Data Obtained in an Effective Way? Were Enough Cases Considered? Was the Sample Representatively Structured? © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • Coincidences, Correlations, and Causes – The progression from coincidence to correlation to causal explanations marks our: • Progress in being able to explain and to predict events – As more data are systematically gathered analyzed: © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • We may discover that the two events are statistically correlated – Which Report Should We Believe and Why? The Devil Is in the details! – Coincidences • We can use inductive reasoning and statistical facts to calculate the probabilities that: © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – A given coincidence might occur – Correlations • Describe the degree to which two different sets of events are aligned • Well-researched correlations can be powerful tools – Causes • Causal explanations are desirable because they: © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – Enable us to explain, predict, and control parts of the natural world – It is not always possible to move all the way: • From coincidence to correlation to causal explanation in every field of inquiry • Fallacies Masquerading as Strong Inductive Arguments © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand • Erroneous Generalization – At times, we generalize from too little information: • Exaggerating the claim beyond what the data support – Playing with Numbers © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – False Dilemma • A real dilemma is a situation in which all our choices are bad – The Gambler’s Fallacy • Random events, by definition, are not causally connected © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – False Cause • When two events occur one right after the other: – We may mistakenly infer that the first is the cause of the second • Other mistakes often grouped under the: – Broad heading of False Cause Fallacies result from confusing symptoms © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inductions and the Evidence at Hand – Slippery Slope • Everyone knows that simply beginning something is no assurance that it will be completed • The Slippery Slope Fallacy makes the false assumption that discrete events are linked together • The first step in the process necessarily results in: – Some significant, usually bad, result way down the road © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.