Chapter 6 Managerial Decision Making Copyright 2006 by

Types of Decisions Programmed decisions þ situations that occur often enough to enable decision rules to be developed. Nonprogrammed decisions þ are made in response to situations that are unique, are poorly defined and largely unstructured. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 2

Decision Making Conditions þ Certainty n þ all the information the decision maker needs is fully available. Risk n n n decision has clear-cut goals. good information is available. future outcomes associated with each alternative are subject to chance. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 3

Decision Making Conditions (contd. ) þ Uncertainty n n n managers know which goals they wish to achieve. information about alternatives and future events is incomplete. managers may have to come up with creative approaches to alternatives. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 4

Decision Making Conditions (contd. ) þ Ambiguity n n by far the most difficult decision situation. goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear. alternatives are difficult to define. information about outcomes is unavailable. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 5

Conditions That Affect the Possibility of Decision Failure Ex. 6. 1 Organizational Problem Low Possibility of Failure Certainty Risk Uncertainty Programmed Decisions High Ambiguity Nonprogrammed Decisions Problem Solution © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 6

Three Decision Making Models Political Model Administrative Model Classical Model © 2006 by South-Western,

Selecting a Decision Making Model ü ü ü Depends on the manager’s personal preference. Whether the decision is programmed or nonprogrammed. Extent to which the decision is characterized by risk, uncertainty, or ambiguity. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 8

Assumptions of the Classical Model þ þ Accomplishes goals that are known and agreed upon. Strives for certainty by gathering complete information. Criteria for evaluating alternatives are known. Decision maker is rational and uses logic. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 9

Administrative Model ð ð How managers actually make decisions in situations characterized by non-programmed decisions, uncertainty, and ambiguity. Two concepts are instrumental in shaping the administrative model. n n bounded rationality: means that people have limits or boundaries on how rational they can be. satisficing: means that decision makers choose the first solution alternative that satisfies minimal decision criteria. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 10

Political Model n n Closely resembles the real environment in which most managers and decision makers operate. Decisions are complex. Disagreement and conflict over problems and solutions are normal. Coalition building is important. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 11

Characteristics of Classical, Administrative, and Political Decision-Making Models Ex. 6. 2 Classical Model Administrative Model Clear-cut problem and goals. Vague problem and goals. Pluralistic; conflicting goals. Condition of certainty. Condition of uncertainty/ambiguity. Full information about alternatives and their outcomes. Limited information about alternatives and their outcomes. Inconsistent viewpoints; ambiguous information. Rational choice by individual for maximizing outcomes. Satisficing choice for resolving problem using intuition. Bargaining and discussion among coalition members. © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Political Model 12

Ex. 6. 3 Six Steps in the Managerial Decision-Making Process © 2006 by South-Western,

Diagnosis Questions (Kepner & Tregoe) ý ý ý ý What is the state of disequilibrium affecting us? When did it occur? Where did it occur? How did it occur? To whom did it occur? What is the urgency of the problem? What is the interconnectedness of events? What result came from what activity? © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 14

Personal Decision Making Styles o o Directive Analytical Conceptual Behavioral © 2006 by South-Western,

Personal Decision Making Styles o Directive 1. Used for Quick Decisions 2. May Only Consider a few Alternatives 3. Generally Efficiency Based Managers © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 16

Personal Decision Making Styles o Analytical 1. Acquires as Much Data as Possible 2. Carefully Considers all Alternatives 3. Rational, Objective Decisions © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 17

Personal Decision Making Styles o Conceptual 1. More Socially Oriented 2. Seeks Group Consensus 3. Rely on Information from People and Systems © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 18

Personal Decision Making Styles o Behavioral 1. Deep Concern for Others 2. Understands Feelings of Those Involved 3. Concerned with Personal Development Affected by Decisions © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 19

Personal Decision Framework Situation: · Programmed/non-programmed · Classical, administrative, political · Decision steps Personal Decision Style: ·Directive ·Analytical ·Conceptual ·Behavioral © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Decision Choice: ·Best Solution to Problem 20

Group Decision Making Questions to Determine Group Participation in Decision Making Decision significance Importance of commitment Leader expertise Likelihood of commitment Group support for goals Group expertise Team competence © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 21

Group Decision Making Advantages 1. Greater Pool of Knowledge 2. Different Perspectives 3. Intellectual Stimulation 4. Better Understanding by Employees 5. Deeper Commitment to the Decision © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 22

Group Decision Making Disadvantages 1. A Few people May Dominate 2. Groupthink 3. Satisficing

Group Decision Making Concerns for Managers 1. Less Efficient 2. Size Affects Quality Inversely 3. Group May Be Too Confident 4. Knowledge Counts © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 24

Group Decision Making Best Times to Utilize Groups 1. When It Can Increase Quality 2. When It Can Increase Acceptance 3. When It Can Increase Development © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. 25