Chapter 6 Economic Growth Estimate economic growth and

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Chapter 6: Economic Growth • Estimate economic growth and implications of sustained growth for

Chapter 6: Economic Growth • Estimate economic growth and implications of sustained growth for standard of living. • Trends in economic growth in U. S. and rest of world. • Sources of economic growth • Alternative theories and policies to improve growth.

The Basics of Economic Growth Economic growth • the sustained expansion of production possibilities

The Basics of Economic Growth Economic growth • the sustained expansion of production possibilities • measured as the increase in real GDP over a given period. Economic growth rate = annual % change of real GDP. • Between two consecutive years: growth rate = (X 2/X 1)-1 • Over several years: Annualized growth rate = (XT/X 1)1/T – 1

The Basics of Economic Growth • Standard of living depends on real GDP person.

The Basics of Economic Growth • Standard of living depends on real GDP person. • Real GDP person grows only if real GDP grows faster than the population grows. • Rule of 70 number of years it takes for the level of a variable to double is approximately 70 divided by the annual percentage growth rate of the variable

Trends in U. S Economic Growth in the U. S. Economy ØFrom 1908 to

Trends in U. S Economic Growth in the U. S. Economy ØFrom 1908 to 2008, annual growth in real GDP person in the United States averaged 2%. ØReal GDP person fell precipitously during the Great Depression and rose rapidly during World War II. ØGrowth was most rapid during the 1960 s. ØGrowth slowed during the 1970 s and sped up again in the 1980 s and 1990 s.

Trends in U. S Economic Growth

Trends in U. S Economic Growth

Economic Growth Trends

Economic Growth Trends

Real GDP Growth in Developed Countries ØGrowth in the United States, Canada, and Europe

Real GDP Growth in Developed Countries ØGrowth in the United States, Canada, and Europe Big 4 has been similar. ØJapan grew rapidly in the 1960 s, slower in the 1980 s, and even slower in the 1990 s.

Economic Growth in U. S. vs. Poor Countries Ø The gaps between real GDP

Economic Growth in U. S. vs. Poor Countries Ø The gaps between real GDP person in the United States and in these countries have widened. ØSome economies are converging ØSome are diverging

Sources of Economic Growth ØEconomic growth is the sustained, year-on-year increase in potential GDP.

Sources of Economic Growth ØEconomic growth is the sustained, year-on-year increase in potential GDP. • Potential GDP is the quantity of real GDP produced when the quantity of labor employed is the fullemployment quantity. • Short run fluctuations in real GDP resulting from the business cycle are not the basis for economic growth

Determinants of Potential GDP ØAggregate production function • Real GDP changes as the quantity

Determinants of Potential GDP ØAggregate production function • Real GDP changes as the quantity of labor changes, other things held constant. • An increase in labor increases real GDP. • Diminishing marginal returns cause RGDP to rise at slower rate as L rises

Determinants of Potential GDP ØAggregate Labor Market • real wage rate – money wage

Determinants of Potential GDP ØAggregate Labor Market • real wage rate – money wage rate divided by the price level. • demand for labor – shows the quantity of labor demanded as a function of the real wage rate. – determined by the marginal product of labor • supply of labor –shows the quantity of labor supplied as a function of the real wage rate.

The Labor Market and Potential GDP Labor Demand Curve The demand for labor is

The Labor Market and Potential GDP Labor Demand Curve The demand for labor is the relationship between the quantity of labor demanded and the real wage rate when all other influences on hiring plans remain the same. Marginal product of labor curve is same as labor demand curve Ø Firms will always hire workers if MP> real wage Ø Profit maximizing firm hires until MP= real wage

The Labor Market and Potential GDP Labor supply curve Øshows quantity of labor supplied

The Labor Market and Potential GDP Labor supply curve Øshows quantity of labor supplied for each real wage rate. Quantity of labor supplied increases as the real wage rate increases for two reasons: 1. Hours person increase (assuming IE<SE) §Income effect (work less if real wage increases) §Substitution effect (work more if real wage increases) 2. Labor force participation increases

Determinants of Potential GDP

Determinants of Potential GDP

How Potential GDP Grows ØIncrease in the supply of ØIncrease in demand for labor

How Potential GDP Grows ØIncrease in the supply of ØIncrease in demand for labor • taxes on workers • population growth • demographics • retirement incentives • household technology • more productive labor • Human capital • physical capital • technological improvements • reduced payroll taxes on employers

Effect of increase in labor supply • real wage • labor hours • real

Effect of increase in labor supply • real wage • labor hours • real GDP • productivity (RDGP per hour) • real GDP per capita • depends on whether population increased

Effect of increase in labor demand due to increased productivity • Labor demand increases

Effect of increase in labor demand due to increased productivity • Labor demand increases and PF shifts upward. • real wage • labor hours • real GDP • productivity • real GDP per capita

Effect of increase in labor demand due to increased productivity

Effect of increase in labor demand due to increased productivity

Why Labor Productivity Grows ØThe incentive system created by firms, markets, property rights, and

Why Labor Productivity Grows ØThe incentive system created by firms, markets, property rights, and money. ØThe growth of labor productivity depends on • Physical capital growth • Human capital growth • Technological advances

Accounting for Growth ØThe quantity of real GDP produced, Y, depends on the quantity

Accounting for Growth ØThe quantity of real GDP produced, Y, depends on the quantity of labor, L, the quantity of capital, K, and the state of technology, T. ØGrowth accounting • calculates the contribution of capital growth and technological change to labor productivity growth. ØOne third rule (Robert Solow) • Estimated effects of capital on labor productivity • On average, with no change in technology, a 1 percent increase in capital per hour of labor brings a 1/3 percent increase in labor productivity

Why Labor Productivity Grows ØBetween 1973 and 1983, growth of labor productivity slowed to

Why Labor Productivity Grows ØBetween 1973 and 1983, growth of labor productivity slowed to 1. 7 percent a year. ØA collapse in the contribution of technological change (purple bar) brought about this slowdown in the growth of labor productivity.

Why Labor Productivity Grows ØLabor productivity growth rate increased to 2 percent a year

Why Labor Productivity Grows ØLabor productivity growth rate increased to 2 percent a year between 1983 and 1993 and … Øto almost 3 percent between 1993 and 2008. ØTechnological change contributed most to this speedup in the growth of labor productivity.

Growth Theories and Policies ØClassical growth theory • growth of real GDP person is

Growth Theories and Policies ØClassical growth theory • growth of real GDP person is temporary and that when GDP person rises above the subsistence level, a population explosion eventually brings real GDP person back to the subsistence level. • Malthus – the “dismal science”

Growth Theories and Policies Modern Growth Theory ØReal GDP person grows because technological change

Growth Theories and Policies Modern Growth Theory ØReal GDP person grows because technological change induces a level of saving and investment that makes capital per hour of labor grow. ØGrowth ends only if technological change and/or incentives for technological change stops.

Growth Theories and Policies ØNew growth theories • Real GDP person grows because of

Growth Theories and Policies ØNew growth theories • Real GDP person grows because of choices that people make in the pursuit of profit and growth can persist indefinitely. • Technological change is driven by profit incentives • Knowledge is a public good and there may be increasing returns to knowledge (education)

Growth Theories and Policies Achieving Faster Growth ØGrowth accounting tells us that to achieve

Growth Theories and Policies Achieving Faster Growth ØGrowth accounting tells us that to achieve faster economic growth we must either increase the growth rate of capital per hour of labor or increase the pace of technological change. ØStimulate Saving • Saving finances investment. So higher saving rates might increase physical capital growth. • Tax incentives might be provided to boost saving.

Growth Theories and Policies ØStimulate Research and Development • Because the fruits of basic

Growth Theories and Policies ØStimulate Research and Development • Because the fruits of basic research and development efforts can be used by everyone, not all the benefit of a discovery falls to the initial discoverer. • The market might allocate too few resources to research and development. • Government subsidies and direct funding might stimulate basic research and development. • Patents can provide incentive to innovate.

Growth Theories and Policies ØEncourage International Trade • Free international trade stimulates growth by

Growth Theories and Policies ØEncourage International Trade • Free international trade stimulates growth by extracting all the available gains from specialization and trade. • The fastest growing nations are the ones with the fastest growing exports and imports. ØImprove the Quality of Education • The benefits from education spread beyond the person being educated, so there is a tendency to under invest in education.