Chapter 6 Bureaucracies Groups and Individuals in the
Chapter 6 Bureaucracies, Groups, and Individuals in the Foreign Policy Process
Learning Objectives 1. Identify the major points of the rational action, bureaucratic politics, and organizational process models of foreign policy making. 2. Understand the arguments for and against the importance of individual decision makers in foreign policy making. Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 2
Learning Objectives 3. Weigh the influence of group dynamics on decision making. 4. Identify the range of sources of misperception in foreign policy making. 5. Understand prospect theory and its implications for decision making in international politics. Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 3
Foreign Policy Analysis § Attempts to understand state behavior in terms of actors and processes at the state and substate levels § Three main areas: § Bureaucracies § Process of decision making § Psychological characteristics of leaders Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 4
Barack Obama and advisors watch the attack on Osama Bin Laden in the White House situation room, May, 2011. How did the decision making process affect the choice of tactics in the attack? Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 5
Branches of Government § Analysis focuses on executive branch § Leader creates foreign policy § Country needs a single voice internationally § Head of government controls executive branch § U. S. president is commander-in-chief Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 6
Branches of Government § Legislatures in Foreign Policy § Power of the Purse § Government expenditures must be approved by the legislature Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 7
Ukrainian members of parliament fight each other among smoke bombs, April 2010. The fight was over a vote extending Russia’s lease on Ukraine’s Sevastopol naval base. Legislatures are at the heart of democratic government. What role do they play in foreign policy? Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 8
Branches of Government § Courts in Foreign Policy § Very limited influence on foreign policy § Pentagon Papers § Civil liberties and human rights rulings § Trying foreign government officials Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 9
Former Chilean President Augusto Pinochet. A Spanish court sought to have him extradited to Spain for crimes against Spanish citizens committed by Pinochet’s government. Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 10
The Rational Action Model § The rational action model compares actual decisions to how decisions should be made. § Assumes actor is trying to achieve a goal § Rational does not mean good outcome Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 11
The Rational Action Model § Expected Utility Theory § Leaders evaluate policies by estimating: § Payoffs(cost/benefit) § Probability of different outcomes from policy § Choose policy of highest expected utility § Utility = the value of an outcome times the probability of obtaining it Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 12
Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy § Most foreign policy is designed and implemented by bureaucracies Retired General James Jones, former UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, and former Undersecretary of state Thomas Pickering testifying before Congress, January 2008. What role does expert advice play in the development of foreign policy? Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 13
Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy § Similar sets of executive institutions across countries § Dept. of State/Ministry of Foreign Affairs § Dept. of Defense/Ministry of Defense § Intelligence services Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 14
Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy § Bureaucratic Politics Model § Bureaucracies have different interests § Policy arises from conflict § Political needs over foreign policy needs Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 15
Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy § Bureaucratic Politics Model § Bureaucratic Interests § Role and budget § Competing Priorities § Struggle over foreign policy between State and Defense Departments § Cuban Missile Crisis § U. S. invasion of Iraq Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 16
Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy § Bureaucratic Politics Model § Effects of Bureaucratic Politics § Policies that nobody intended § Foreign policy is a result of a battle, not a decision § Critique of the Bureaucratic Politics Model § “Where you stand depends on where you sit” is an oversimplification § Skeptical of the power of bureaucracies to escape the control of the head of government Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 17
Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy § Organizational Process Model § Stresses how procedures influence content of decisions § Apply same procedures to different situations § Standard operating procedure § Used to organize work; maximize efficiency § Military doctrines Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 18
Diagram of the Intelligence Process Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 19
Small Group Decision Making § Foreign policy decisions made by leaders and closest advisors § Groupthink § Teamwork is highly valued; members encouraged to support the group’s decisions § Reluctance to disagree with the leader Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 20
Individual Decision Making § Many critical decisions made by single decision maker § Psychology and personality matter § Perception and Misperception § Ambiguity and uncertainty are inherent in international politics § Unmotivated and motivated bias § Bounded rationality Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 21
Individual Decision Making § Perception and Misperception § Attribution theory § Fundamental attribution bias § Historical Lessons and Analogies § The lesson of Munich § Appeasement failed because Chamberlain was acting on the basis of a previous war § The lessons of Vietnam § Starting wars is easier than ending them § Powell Doctrine Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 22
What is in this photo? U. S. leaders claimed that it showed sites of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Leaders as well as citizens based their support for the invasion of Iraq on that belief. The belief turned out to be wrong. Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 23
Individual Decision Making § Perception and Misperception § Historical Lessons and Analogies § Generational change § Decision makers are very uneven in their use of history § Prospect Theory § Decisions influenced by how choices are framed § Individuals much more willing to take risks to avoid loss than to achieve gain (status quo bias). § It is easier to agree on how to divide up gains than to agree on how to divide up losses. Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 24
Prospect Theory Value Function Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 25
Individual Decision Making § Perception and Misperception § Motivated Bias § Driven by psychological need § Individuals see what they want to see § Cognitive dissonance theory § Individuals construct internally consistent views of the world § Psychological discomfort occurs when new info doesn’t fit existing views § New information unlikely to cause change Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 26
Individual Decision Making § Perception and Misperception § Motivated Bias § Bolstering § Individuals can experience a psychological drive to convince themselves they have made the correct choice § Results in overconfidence, not considering alternatives Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 27
Explanations of Decision Making Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 28
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