CHAPTER 28 Unemployment Economics N Gregory Mankiw PRINCIPLES

CHAPTER 28 Unemployment Economics N. Gregory Mankiw PRINCIPLES OF N. Gregory Mankiw Premium Power. Point Slides by Ron Cronovich © 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning, all rights reserved

In this chapter, look for the answers to these questions: § § How is unemployment measured? What is the “natural rate of unemployment”? Why are there always some people unemployed? How is unemployment affected by unions and minimum wage laws? § What is theory of efficiency wages, and how does it help explain unemployment? 1

Labor Force Statistics § Produced by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in the U. S. Dept. of Labor § Based on regular survey of 60, 000 households § Based on “adult population” (16 yrs or older) UNEMPLOYMENT 2

Labor Force Statistics BLS divides population into 3 groups: § Employed: paid employees, self-employed, and unpaid workers in a family business § Unemployed: people not working who have looked for work during previous 4 weeks § Not in the labor force: everyone else The labor force is the total # of workers, including the employed and unemployed. UNEMPLOYMENT 3

Labor Force Statistics Unemployment rate (“u-rate”): % of the labor force that is unemployed u-rate # of unemployed = 100 x labor force Labor force participation rate: % of the adult population that is in the labor force = 100 x participation rate adult population UNEMPLOYMENT 4

ACTIVE LEARNING 1 Calculate labor force statistics Compute the labor force, u-rate, adult population, and labor force participation rate using this data: Adult population of the U. S. by group, June 2008 # of employed 145. 9 million # of unemployed 8. 5 million not in labor force 79. 2 million 5

ACTIVE LEARNING 1 Answers Labor force = employed + unemployed = 145. 9 + 8. 5 = 154. 4 million U-rate = 100 x (unemployed)/(labor force) = 100 x 8. 5/154. 4 = 5. 5% 6

ACTIVE LEARNING 1 Answers Population = labor force + not in labor force = 154. 4 + 79. 2 = 233. 6 LF partic. rate = 100 x (labor force)/(population) = 100 x 154. 4/233. 6 = 66. 1% 7

台灣失業率: 按年齡區分 2013 總計 15 -24 25 -44 45 -64 65+ 人口數 (萬人) 1958. 7 304. 6 724. 8 666. 0 263. 3 勞動力 (萬人) 1144. 5 90. 1 628. 0 404. 5 22. 0 4. 18 13. 17 4. 27 2. 25 0. 14 失業率 (%) 2000 -2013 平均 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 3034 3539 4044 4549 5054 5559 6064 65+ 4. 44 11. 8 11. 42 6. 41 4. 18 3. 34 3. 09 3. 07 2. 94 2. 58 1. 64 UNEMPLOYMENT 14

台灣失業率: 按學歷區分 總計 國中以 下 高中職 專科 大學 研究所 2011 4. 39 3. 69 4. 66 3. 40 5. 79 2. 97 2012 4. 24 3. 52 4. 22 3. 18 5. 9 3. 49 2013 4. 18 3. 53 4. 11 3. 11 5. 81 3. 29 UNEMPLOYMENT 15

台灣失業率: 按性別區分 總計 男 女 2011 4. 39 4. 71 3. 96 2012 4. 24 4. 49 3. 92 2013 4. 18 4. 47 3. 8 UNEMPLOYMENT 16

失業週數 平均 初次尋職 非初次尋職 2011 27. 67 27. 32 27. 76 2012 26. 04 28. 49 25. 35 2013 26. 18 27. 74 25. 70 UNEMPLOYMENT 17

實質薪資 UNEMPLOYMENT 2007 $46650 2008 45038 2009 43193 2010 44989 2011 45508 2012 44726 2013 44446 18

Labor Market Statistics for Different Groups § The BLS publishes these statistics for demographic groups within the population. § These data reveal widely different labor market experiences for different groups. UNEMPLOYMENT 19

Labor Market Statistics for Whites & Blacks, June 2008 Adults (20 yrs & older) u-rate LF part. rate White, male 4. 5% 76. 1% White, female 4. 2 60. 4 Black, male 9. 3 71. 5 Black, female 7. 4 64. 3 UNEMPLOYMENT 20

Labor Market Statistics for Whites & Blacks, June 2008 Teens (16 -19 yrs) u-rate LF part. rate White 16. 6 43. 9 Black 29. 6 27. 9 UNEMPLOYMENT 21

Labor Market Statistics for Other Groups, June 2008 All ages u-rate LF part. rate Asian 4. 5 67. 4 Hispanic 7. 7 69. 0 UNEMPLOYMENT 22

Labor Market Statistics by Education Level, June 2008 Adults (25 yrs & older) u-rate LF part. rate less than h. s. 8. 7% 45. 9% h. s. diploma 5. 1 62. 8 some college or assoc degree 4. 2 71. 9 bachelor’s degree or more 2. 3 78. 1 UNEMPLOYMENT 23

LF Participation Rates by Sex, 1950 -2007 Men Women UNEMPLOYMENT 24

ACTIVE LEARNING 2 Limitations of the u-rate In each of the following, what happens to the u-rate? Does the u-rate give an accurate impression of what’s happening in the labor market? A. Sue lost her job and begins looking for a new one. B. Jon, a steelworker who has been out of work since his mill closed last year, becomes discouraged and gives up looking for work. C. Sam, the sole earner in his family of 5, just lost his $80, 000 job as a research scientist. Immediately, he takes a part-time job at Mc. Donald’s until he can find another job in his field. 25

ACTIVE LEARNING 2 Answers A. Sue lost her job and begins looking for a new one. u-rate rises A rising u-rate gives the impression that the labor market is worsening, and it is. 26

ACTIVE LEARNING 2 Answers B. Jon has been out of work since last year, becomes discouraged, stops looking for work. Discouraged workers § would like to work but have given up looking for jobs § classified as “not in the labor force” rather than “unemployed” U-rate falls because Jon is no longer counted as unemployed. A falling u-rate gives the impression that the labor market is improving, but it is not. 27

ACTIVE LEARNING 2 Answers C. Sam lost his $80, 000 job, and takes a part-time job at Mc. Donald’s until he finds a better one. U-rate unchanged because a person is “employed” whether they work full or part time. Things are worse, but the u-rate fails to show it. 28

Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To? § Discouraged workers (怯志 作者) are nonworking people who are capable of working but have given up looking for a job. § Marginally attached workers would like to be employed and have looked for a job in the recent past but are not currently looking for work. (包括怯志 作 者) § Underemployment is the number of people who work part time because they cannot find full-time jobs. (計入 就業人數)

Unemployment Rate Alternative Measures of Unemployment, 1994 -2008 Percentage of labor force 12% 10 8 6 4 2 1994 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year

What Does the U-Rate Really Measure? § The u-rate is not a perfect indicator of joblessness or the health of the labor market: § It excludes discouraged workers. § It does not distinguish between full-time and part-time work, or people working part time because full-time jobs not available. § Some people misreport their work status in the BLS survey. § Despite these issues, the u-rate is still a very useful barometer of the labor market & economy. UNEMPLOYMENT 33

The Duration of Unemployment Most spells of unemployment are short: § Typically 1/3 of the unemployed have been unemployed under 5 weeks, 2/3 have been unemployed under 14 weeks. § Only 20% have been unemployed over 6 months. Yet, most observed unemployment is long term. § The small group of long-term unemployed persons has fairly little turnover, so it accounts for most of the unemployment observed over time. Knowing these facts helps policymakers design better policies to help the unemployed. UNEMPLOYMENT 34

The Nature of Unemployment Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration

Cyclical Unemployment vs. the Natural Rate There’s always some unemployment, though the urate fluctuates from year to year. Natural rate of unemployment § the normal rate of unemployment around which the actual unemployment rate fluctuates Cyclical unemployment § the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate § associated with business cycles, which we’ll study in later chapters UNEMPLOYMENT 36

U. S. Unemployment, 1960 -2007 percentage of labor force 12 10 Unemployment rate 8 6 4 Natural rate of unemployment 2 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Explaining the Natural Rate: An Overview Even when the economy is doing well, there is always some unemployment, including: Frictional unemployment § occurs when workers spend time searching for the jobs that best suit their skills and tastes § short-term for most workers Structural unemployment § occurs when there are fewer jobs than workers § usually longer-term UNEMPLOYMENT 38

Job Search § Workers have different tastes & skills, and jobs have different requirements. § Job search is the process of matching workers with appropriate jobs. § Sectoral shifts are changes in the composition of demand across industries or regions of the country. § Such shifts displace some workers, who must search for new jobs appropriate for their skills & tastes. § The economy is always changing, so some frictional unemployment is inevitable. UNEMPLOYMENT 39

Job Search § Job search § the process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their tastes and skills. § results from the fact that it takes time for qualified individuals to be matched with appropriate jobs. 勞 勞動市場 配對 作 職缺

Job Search § This unemployment is different from the other types of unemployment. § It is not caused by a wage rate higher than equilibrium. § It is caused by the time spent searching for the “right” job.

Public Policy and Job Search § Govt employment agencies provide information about job vacancies to speed up the matching of workers with jobs. § Public training programs aim to equip workers displaced from declining industries with the skills needed in growing industries. UNEMPLOYMENT 43

Unemployment Insurance § Unemployment insurance (UI): a govt program that partially protects workers’ incomes when they become unemployed § UI increases frictional unemployment. To see why, recall one of the Ten Principles of Economics: People respond to incentives. UI benefits end when a worker takes a job, so workers have less incentive to search or take jobs while eligible to receive benefits. UNEMPLOYMENT 44

Unemployment Insurance Benefits of UI: § Reduces uncertainty over incomes § Gives the unemployed more time to search, resulting in better job matches and thus higher productivity UNEMPLOYMENT 45

Structural Unemployment § Structural unemployment occurs when the quantity of labor supplied exceeds the quantity demanded. § Structural unemployment is often thought to explain longer spells of unemployment.

Explaining Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment occurs when not enough jobs to go around. W unemployment S actual wage W 1 WE Occurs when wage is kept above eq’m. There are three reasons for this… UNEMPLOYMENT D L 47

1. Minimum-Wage Laws § The min. wage may exceed the eq’m wage for the least skilled or experienced workers, causing structural unemployment. § But this group is a small part of the labor force, so the min. wage can’t explain most unemployment. UNEMPLOYMENT 48

2. Unions § Union: a worker association that bargains with employers over wages, benefits, and working conditions § Unions exert their market power to negotiate higher wages for workers. § The typical union worker earns 20% higher wages and gets more benefits than a nonunion worker for the same type of work. UNEMPLOYMENT 50

2. Unions § When unions raise the wage above eq’m, quantity of labor demanded falls and unemployment results. § “Insiders” – workers who remain employed, they are better off § “Outsiders” – workers who lose their jobs, they are worse off § Some outsiders go to non-unionized labor markets, which increases labor supply and reduces wages in those markets. UNEMPLOYMENT 51

2. Unions Are unions good or bad? Economists disagree. § Critics: Unions are cartels. They raise wages above eq’m, which causes unemployment and/or depresses wages in non-union labor markets. § Advocates: Unions counter the market power of large firms, make firms more responsive to workers’ concerns. UNEMPLOYMENT 52

3. Efficiency Wages § The theory of efficiency wages: Firms voluntarily pay above-equilibrium wages to boost worker productivity. § Different versions of efficiency wage theory suggest different reasons why firms pay high wages. UNEMPLOYMENT 53

3. Efficiency Wages Four reasons why firms might pay efficiency wages: 1. Worker health In less developed countries, poor nutrition is a common problem. Paying higher wages allows workers to eat better, makes them healthier, more productive. 2. Worker turnover Hiring & training new workers is costly. Paying high wages gives workers more incentive to stay, reduces turnover. UNEMPLOYMENT 54

3. Efficiency Wages Four reasons why firms might pay efficiency wages: 3. Worker quality Offering higher wages attracts better job applicants, increases quality of the firm’s workforce. 4. Worker effort Workers can work hard or shirk. Shirkers are fired if caught. Is being fired a good deterrent? Depends on how hard it is to find another job. If market wage is above eq’m wage, there aren’t enough jobs to go around, so workers have more incentive to work not shirk. UNEMPLOYMENT 55

ACTIVE LEARNING 3 Applying the concepts Which of the following would be most likely to reduce frictional unemployment? A. The govt eliminates the minimum wage. B. The govt increases unemployment insurance benefits. C. A new law bans labor unions. D. More workers post their resumes at Monster. com, and more employers use Monster. com to find suitable workers to hire. E. Sectoral shifts become more frequent. 56

ACTIVE LEARNING 3 Answers Which of the following would be most likely to reduce frictional unemployment? A. The govt eliminates the minimum wage. C. A new law bans labor unions. These are likely to reduce structural unemployment, not frictional unemployment. 57

ACTIVE LEARNING 3 Answers Which of the following would be most likely to reduce frictional unemployment? B. The govt increases unemployment insurance benefits. E. Sectoral shifts become more frequent. These are likely to increase frictional unemployment, not reduce it. 58

ACTIVE LEARNING 3 Answers Which of the following would be most likely to reduce frictional unemployment? D. More workers post their resumes at Monster. com, and more employers use Monster. com to find suitable workers to hire. Likely to speed up the process of matching workers & jobs, which would reduce frictional unemployment. 59

Explaining the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Summary The natural rate of unemployment consists of § frictional unemployment § It takes time to search for the right jobs § Occurs even if there are enough jobs to go around § structural unemployment § When wage is above eq’m, not enough jobs § Due to min. wages, labor unions, efficiency wages In later chapters, we will learn about cyclical unemployment, the short-term fluctuations in unemployment associated with business cycles. UNEMPLOYMENT 60

CHAPTER SUMMARY § The unemployment rate is the percentage of those who would like to work who do not have jobs. § Unemployment and labor force participation vary widely across demographic groups. § The natural rate of unemployment is the normal rate of unemployment around which the actual rate fluctuates. Cyclical unemployment is the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate and is connected to short-term economic fluctuations. 61

CHAPTER SUMMARY § The natural rate includes frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. § Frictional unemployment occurs when workers take time to search for the right jobs. § Structural unemployment occurs when aboveequilibrium wages result in a surplus of labor. § Three reasons for above-equilibrium wages include minimum wage laws, unions, and efficiency wages. 62