Chapter 26 Inflation expectations and credibility David Begg
Chapter 26 Inflation, expectations and credibility David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch, Economics, 9 th Edition, Mc. Graw-Hill Education, 2008 Power. Point presentation by Alex Tackie and Damian Ward ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Inflation is. . . • Inflation is a rise in the price level. • Pure inflation is when goods and input prices rise at the same rate. • One of the first acts of the Labour government in 1997 was to make the Bank of England independent with a mandate to achieve low inflation. The rental contracts and the civil servant wages are indexed to inflation in Turkey. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Some questions about inflation • What are the causes of inflation? • What are the effects and hence costs of inflation? • What can be done about it? • These are the questions we seek to answer in what follows. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Calculating Inflation • We use price indices to measure inflation. • Consumer Price Index (CPI) • Producer Price Index (PPI) • Gross Domestic Product deflator (GDP deflator) ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Inflation in the UK, 1950 -2007 Source: Economic Trends Annual Supplement, Labour Market Trends ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Inflation in Turkey 2003 -2011 20 Inflation 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 Source: TEPAV 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6 2011 ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX • The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month. • It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX • When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. – The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. – The BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods and services. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Compute the Basket’s Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index: – Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. – Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • The Inflation Rate – The inflation rate is calculated as follows: ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008 Copyright© 2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008 Copyright© 2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008 Copyright© 2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008 Copyright© 2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008 Copyright© 2004 South-Western
CPI 851 goods and services included in 12 main categories. • CPI-Turkey 2012 (%) 1. Food and nonalcoholic beverages 2. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 3. Clothing and shoes 4. Housing 5. House appliances 6. Health 7. Education 8. Communication 9. Transportation 10. Recreation and culture 11. Restaurants and Hotels 12. Other 26, 22 5, 21 6, 87 16, 44 7, 45 2, 29 2, 18 4, 6 16, 73 2, 98 5, 63 3, 4 TOTAL Source: TÜİK 100 20 ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
The GDP Deflator • The GDP deflator is a measure of the price level calculated as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP times 100. • It tells us the rise in nominal GDP that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a rise in the quantities produced. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
The GDP Deflator • The GDP deflator is calculated as follows: ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
The Causes of Inflation • Demand-Pull Inflation: Increases when the demand increases. • Example: Good economic conditions cause demand to increase. • Cost-Push Inflation: The increase in costs can push the prices up. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Hyperinflation • Hyperinflations are periods when inflation rates are very large • During such periods there tends to be a ‘flight from cash’, i. e. people hold as little cash as possible – e. g. Germany in 1922 -23, Hungary 194546, Brazil in the late 1980 s. • Large government budget deficits help to explain such periods – persistent inflation must be accompanied by continuing money supply growth ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
German Hyperinflation, 1922 -23 (January 1922=1) Date Money Supply Prices Real Money Monthly inflation(%) Jan 1922 1 1 1. 00 5 Jan 1923 16 75 0. 21 189 July 1923 354 2021 0. 18 386 227777 645946 0. 35 2532 20201256 191891890 0. 11 29720 Sept. 1923 Oct. 1923 25 ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Seigniorage and Inflation Tax • Seigniorage: The real income that the government gets by printing money • Inflation Tax: The decrease in real national debt because of the increase in inflation. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Inflation illusion • People have inflation illusion when they confuse nominal and real changes. • Welfare depends upon real variables, not nominal variables. • If all nominal variables (prices and incomes) increase at the same rate, real income does not change. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
The costs of inflation (1) • Fully anticipated inflation: • Institutions adapt to known inflation: – nominal interest rates – tax rates – transfer payments • there is no inflation illusion • Some costs remain: – shoe-leather • people economise on money holdings – menu costs • firms need to alter price lists etc. ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
The costs of inflation (2) • Even if inflation is fully anticipated, the economy may not fully adapt – interest rates may not fully reflect inflation – taxes may become distorted • fiscal drag may have unintended effects on tax liabilities • capital and profits taxes may be distorted ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
The costs of unanticipated inflation • Unintended redistribution of income – from lenders to borrowers – from private to public sector – from old to young • Uncertainty – firms find planning more difficult under inflation, which may discourage investment • This has been seen as the most important cost of inflation ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
Defeating inflation • Monetary policy: Inflation will be lower if the rate of money growth is lower. • Fiscal Policy: If the government spends less, then it needs to print less money to cover its debt. • Price policy: The government tries to control the prices. (e. g. Limit the raise in rental contracts). ©The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, 2008
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