Chapter 12 Abortion and Crime Abortion is a
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime Abortion is a controversial issue!! Walker (earlier edition): "Whatever your views on abortion might be, it is difficult if not impossible to find a connection between it and serious crime. Legalizing or criminalizing abortion has no effect on robbery and burglary. "
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime In a newer edition (6), Walker briefly mentions some recent new research on abortion and crime rates, but he doesn’t discuss it in any detail. He also says it hasn’t been “replicated” – but doesn’t explain what that means. Now Walker says essentially that the study has been refuted
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime New research indicates that abortion (and to a lesser extent the economic boom) is a major reason for the big drop in crime in the 1990's!! (Levitt and Donahue) BJS homicide table next slide Note: Compare to baby boomers in 1960 s
(Table from Bureau of Justice Statistics)
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime What the new research found -- using mainly demographic analysis - is that abortion reduced the number of people at the prime crime age in the 1990 s, and the reduced number led to lower crime rates. Note: these researchers take no position on abortion as a moral/political issue!!
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime Background/History Late 1940 s into early 1950 s (after WW 2) baby boomers born, led to huge crime incr roughly 15 -25 years later in the 1960 s as the baby boomers reached prime crime age.
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 1950 s Unwanted pregnancies often led to forced marriages - “shotgun marriages” Abortion and birth control mostly restricted - especially unobtainable for the poor But birth rates were dropping - “the pill”
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 1960 s Increasing illegal abortions + birth control Baby boomers reaching parenting age - “echo” (Echo boomer kids hit the prime crime age in the 1980 s - much smaller numbers than bb)
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 1970 s Birth control & family planning for “middle class” (Reduced unwanted pregnancies & forced marriages) Legal abortion for poor women (mostly teens) begins Publicly subsidized/funded
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 1970 s & 1980 s 1. 5 million abortions a year - mostly poor 30 million abortions, 25+ million fewer poor young people through the 1990 s as they would have aged in to crime Thus, the big drops in crime in the 1990 s!
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime Donohue and Levitt (researchers) Researchers are very cautious!! Four lines of evidence supporting role of abortion in 1990 s crime decreases:
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 1. Crime decreases started about 18 years after legalization of abortion following Roe v. Wade - just about when first cohorts were reaching prime crime age. Authors: This is weakest part of argument! Researchers cautious - many other things going on at the same time - “simultaneity problem”
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 2. Five states legalized abortion 3 years before Roe v. Wade - crime decreases started in all five states about 3 years before the national trend started. Authors: Still weak evidence could be coincidence (more caution)
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 3. States with high abortion rates in the 1970 s had much larger crime decreases in the 1990 s than states with low abortion rates in the 1970 s. Authors: more convincing evidence!
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime 4. The large crime drop in the 1990 s only occurred among those under 25 years old which is the only demographic group at the time who had been affected by the legalization of abortion. Authors: combined with the other patterns, this becomes pretty convincing evidence.
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime Putting the research into context -what else was going on that contributed to the drop in homicide/crime in the 1990 s? -- back to the table --
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime Rise in 1980 s, before drop in 1990 s the economic boom? changes in availability of guns? (more later) demographics/abortion? Note: growth of imprisonment rate slowed in the 1990 s (so not incapacitation).
Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime So the answer to the original question Decriminalization can, and has, contributed to reducing serious crime This also illustrates the huge importance of sociology to criminology!
- Slides: 19