Chapter 10 Population Resources and Sustainability Key Questions
Chapter 10 Population, Resources, and Sustainability
Key Questions How is population size affected by the number of males and females at each age level? l How can population growth be slowed? l What success have India and China had in slowing population growth? l How can global population growth be reduced? l
How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates? l l Population size depends on: births, deaths, and migration Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration) When births and immigration are more than deaths and emigration, population is growing When deaths and emigration are more than births and immigration, population is declining
How Do We Find Birth and Death Rates? l Crude birth rate: number of live births per 1, 000 people in a population in a year l Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1, 000 people in a population in a year
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Developing countries (w/o China) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 29 9
Some Facts Every time your heart beats, 2. 3 more babies are added to the world’s population l More births are occurring than deaths l We share the earth’s resources with 216, 000 more people each day l Equivalent of filling up a jumbo jet with 400 new passengers every 2. 7 minutes! l
Calculate the World’s Annual Population Change Annual rate of population change (%) = birth rate – death rate 1, 000 people = birth rate – death rate 10 x 100
Annual world population growth <1% 1 -1. 9% 2 -2. 9% 3+% Data not available
Map An exponential growth rate of 1. 28% may seem small, but it adds about 79 million people per year to the world’s population! l Equivalent to adding a New York City every month! l
Growth rate (percent) 10 2. 0 8 1. 5 6 1. 0 4 0. 5 2 0. 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Less developed countries More developed countries 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population in billions 2. 5
World’s 10 Most Populous Countries l China and India together make up 37% of the world’s population l The US has the 3 rd largest population, but only 4. 6% of the world’s people
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning China 1. 28 billion 1. 5 billion India 1 billion 1. 4 billion USA Indonesia Brazil 288 million 346 million 217 million 282 million 174 million 219 million Pakistan 144 million 242 million Russia 144 million 129 million Bangladesh 134 million 178 million Japan 127 million 121 million Nigeria 130 million 205 million 2002 2025
How have Global Fertility Rates Changed? 1. Replacement fertility: number of children a couple must have to replace themselves l Slightly higher than 2 in developed countries and 2. 5 in most developing countries l Reason? Some female children die before reproductive years l
How have Global Fertility Rates Changed? l 2. Total Fertility Rate: estimate of the average number of children a female will have during her childbearing years l TFRs have sharply dropped since 1950
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning World 5 children per women 2. 8 Developed countries 2. 5 1. 6 Developing countries 6. 5 3. 1 Africa 6. 6 5. 2 Latin America 5. 9 2. 7 Asia 5. 9 2. 6 Oceania 3. 8 2. 5 North America 3. 5 2. 1 Europe 2. 6 1. 4 1950 2002
Births per thousand population 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 0 1910 End of World War II Demographic transition 1920 Depression 1930 1940 Baby boom 1950 1960 Year Baby bust 1970 Echo baby boom 1980 1990 2000 2010
U. S. Birth Rates Fell Sharply because… Demographic transition: Industrialization and urbanization Educated women working outside home THEN, Baby Boom Period: after WW 1 Echo Boom Period: people born during baby boom started having children
What Factors Affect Birth Rates? l l l l l Importance of children as part of labor force Urbanization Cost of raising children Employment opportunities for women Infant mortality rate Average at marriage Availability of abortions Availability of birth control Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms
What Factors Affect Death Rates? l Food supply and distribution l Nutrition l Improvements in medical technology l Improvements in sanitization and personal hygiene l Safer water supplies
Life Expectancy Average number of years a newborn infant can be expected to live l In the world’s poorest countries, life expectancy is 55 years or less. l High infant mortality rate = not enough food, malnutrition, or high infectious diseases l
United States Mexico 288 million Population (2002) 102 million 31 million Projected population (2025) Infant mortality rate © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Canada 346 million 132 million 36 million 6. 6 25 5. 3 77 years 75 years 79 years Life expectancy 2. 1 Total fertility rate (TFR) 2. 9 1. 5 21% % population under age 15 % population over age 65 Per capita GNI PPP 33% 19% 13% 5% 13% $34, 110 $8, 790 $27, 170
Infant Mortality and Birth Rates U. S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate of any developed country. l Each year, 872, 000 teenage girls become pregnant and 253, 000 have abortions l Babies born to teenage mothers usually have low birth weight which causes infant mortality. l
What Are Age Structure Diagrams? l l 1. 2. 3. Age structure: the proportion of the population at each age level Plot percentages of males and females in the population in each of 3 categories: Prereproductive: ages 0 -14 Reproductive: ages 15 -44 Postreproductive: ages 45 and up
Male Female Male Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Ages 0 -14 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Female Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Ages 15 -44 Ages 45 -85+
Male Female Male Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Ages 0 -14 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Female Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 15 -44 Ages 45 -85+
Developed Countries 85+ 80 -85 Male 75 -79 Female 70 -74 65 -69 60 -64 55 -59 Age 50 -54 45 -49 40 -44 35 -39 30 -34 25 -29 20 -24 15 -19 10 -14 5 -9 0 -4 300 200 100 Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 200 300
Developing Countries 85+ 80 -85 Male 75 -79 Female 70 -74 65 -69 60 -64 55 -59 Age 50 -54 45 -49 40 -44 35 -39 30 -34 25 -29 20 -24 15 -19 10 -14 5 -9 0 -4 300 200 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 100 0 100 Population (millions) 200 300
Population (2002) 288 million 174 million 130 million Brazil (moderately developed) Nigeria (less developed) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate 346 million 219 million 205 million 6. 8 33 75 Life expectancy 77 years 69 years 52 years Fertility rate (TFR) 2. 1 2. 2 5. 8 %Population under age 15 % Population over age 65 Per capita GNI PPP (2000) United States (highly developed) 21% 33% 44% 13% 5% 3% $34, 100 $7, 300 $800 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Reduced Fertility? As the % of people over 60 increases, more countries will experience population declines l By 2020, 1 billion people will be 60 or older. l Rapid population decline can lead to serious economic and social problems Example: older people consume a large part of medical care, Social Security, and other services funded by taxpayers labor shortages l
What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Rise in Death Rates? Sharp drop in life expectancy l Loss of most productive young adult workers l Sharp rise in number of orphans We need to: 1. Reduce the spread of HIV 2. Provide debt relief and financial assistance 3. Send volunteer teachers and social workers l
Is the World Overpopulated? Is it already overpopulated? l What should we do to stop population growth? l What is the optimum sustainable population? l No one knows! l
One Viewpoint The world can support billions more people l People are the world’s most valuable resource for solving problems and stimulating economic growth by being consumers l Population regulation is a violation of personal freedom l
An Opposing Viewpoint We already fail to provide the basic necessities to 1 out of 5 people today l If we do not take measures to drop the birth rate, we are increasing the death rate l We greatly increase environmental harm l
Stages of Development in Countries Preindustrial: very little population growth due to harsh living conditions l Transitional: industrialization begins; food production rises and health care improves; population grows rapidly l Industrial: birth rate drops; population growth slows l Postindustrial: birth rate declines; zero population growth l
How Do We Cut Global Population Growth? Family planning l Empowering women: women have fewer and healthier children when they have access to education and paying jobs AND when they live in societies with rights l Reduce poverty l
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