Chap 4 Resources and Environment Learning Objectives Resources

Chap 4: Resources and Environment

Learning Objectives • • Resources vs Consumption Zero Sum Game & Optimal Population Resource measurement & limits Present food situation – distribution not production • Possible long term solutions – Local production – New food sources – Genetic alterations Food Resources 2

I. Resources and Population A. Carrying Capacity vs Overpopulation • Recent growth of resource consumption in AICs [Advance Industrial Countries] has dwarfed growth of demand in LDCs • The issue isn't bodies, its consumption Food Resources 3

Zero Sum Game • Define Zero Sum Game Food Resources 4

ZERO SUM GAME From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia • describes a situation in which one participant's gain (or loss) is exactly balanced by the losses (or gains) of the other participant(s). • total gains of the participants and subtract the total losses then they will sum to zero. • In layman's terms, in order for one person to win, another must lose. Food Resources 5

ZERO SUM GAME Is the world resource issue a zero sum game? • What I have you don’t have • What I have you can’t have • Hint Marx implied a Zero sum game, Bill Gates and Milton Friedman don’t. http: //www. marxists. org/archive/marx/photo/art/marx-11. jpg http: //www. jmusheneaux. com/GATES 2%20/bill-gates-mugshot. jpg Food Resources 6

ZERO SUM GAME ? ? ? Over Population/Consumption • To play the "zero sum game" you need to know when you reach “zero” or full use, – at that we can only guess – this has been a moving target due to technological advancement Food Resources 7

ZERO SUM GAME ? ? ? Over Population/Consumption • Consider that Overpopulation might be: • an unwanted child • as much as an unsupportable child • Over consumption might be a second automobile for someone in a nursing home as much as a Presidential candidate that doesn’t know how many homes he owns • Basically we hope this isn’t a zero sum game Food Resources 8

Optimum Population • What is the Optimum Population for the world, USA, WA State. • Start by estimating the current population for each Food Resources 9

Current Population • World & USA see world clock http: //www. census. gov/main/www/popclock. html • WA State • http: //quickfacts. census. gov/qfd/states/53 000. html Food Resources 10

Optimum Population • What is it? -- its all in the eyes of the perceiver, • Its the quagmire of sustainable development – Everyone is for this – But no one can adequately describe it – We can only assert the negative • What it isn’t Food Resources 11

Optimum Population • The Mayans thought their population was optimal until it collapsed • What is sustainable energy use? Should all fossil fuels be banned? What about hydro dams (called “bridge power” by Patick Mc. Cully, 2003)? Food Resources 12

Unfortunate Conclusion Bottom Line • Everyone worries about the possibility of the Zero Sum Game • Everyone talks Sustainable Development • No one knows what Optimum Population or Consumption is Food Resources 13

II. Types of resources and their limits (Define terms) • Resource Definition: If its presumed useable and finite (i. e. has a market/ “true price”), then its a resource – star-shine, not a resource (today) – air, not understood as a resource – However Viewsheds are a resource Food Resources 14

Define Resource Amount • What is the difference between a – Reserve – Projected Reserve – Resource Food Resources 15

Measuring and Defining Resources A. Reserves, Projected Reserves, (total) Resources Reserves – known & available with current technology & at current prices (today) Projected Reserves – based on expected future prices & technologies (tomorrow) Resources – materials in the Environment that may someday be used (unknown if ever) Food Resources 16

Example with Gold • Reserves – current mines and gold fields • Projected Reserves – possible deeper and more difficult to extract ores, currently not profitable to mine • Resources – includes things like sea water which has gold, but may never be economical to extract Food Resources 17 Gold Ore

Resource Type Class exercise • In the energy field give an example of a reserve, projected reserve, and resource • Define Human Resources – what are they Food Resources 18

B. Defining Resource by Types Food Resources 19

C. Renewable resource and maximum sustainable yield An Endless Debate Food Resources 20

Recent good news -- click Bad news -- click Food Resources 21

Global Fisheries Collapse Predicted Pew Marine Conservation Fellows Co-Author Science Article on Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. November 06, 2006 A recent Science publication warns that the world will run out of seafood by 2048 if steep declines in marine species continue at current rates, based on a four-year study of catch data and the effects of fisheries collapses. The co-authors of the paper, written by an international group of ecologists and economists, include Pew Marine Conservation Fellows Carl Folke, Stephen Palumbi, and Enric Sala. http: //www. pewoceanscience. org/press-article. php? ID=58 Food Resources 22

Global Fisheries Collapse Predicted Details The recent paper, published in the journal Science (Worm et al. 2006), predicts the global collapse (defined as fish catches dropping below 10 percent of historic catches) of all currently fished taxa by 2048. The prediction is based on a meta-analysis of published data in which the authors examined the effects of declining species diversity on marine ecosystem services. Results suggest that the loss of biodiversity in coastal ecosystems has led to the impairment of critical ecosystem services, such as the filtering services provided by suspension feeders and submerged vegetation that contribute to the maintenance of high water quality. The authors also used the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s global catch database for the period from 1950 to 2003 to examine relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services in 64 large marine ecosystems (greater than 150, 000 square-km). This analysis revealed that 29 percent of all fished species had collapsed by 2003 and ecosystems with the fewest species suffered the greatest rates of collapse. The authors note that large marine ecosystems with higher species diversity also recovered more quickly following periods of overexploitation, perhaps due to the improved abilities of fishers to switch among species, thus giving overexploited species the opportunity to recover. Finally, the authors examined relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services in 44 marine reserves and four large-scale fisheries closures. On average, these regions had species richness 23 percent greater than nonprotected areas. Tourism revenue, measured as the number of dive trips, also was increased in these areas, suggesting that not only do diverse marine fisheries serve as major global food sources, but they also provide opportunities for recreation. The authors conclude that the loss of marine biodiversity is negatively impacting the marine ecosystem services on which we depend. Yet they believe the trend is reversible and, therefore, urge the restoration of biodiversity through careful management of fisheries, maintenance of pollution-free habitats, and creation of marine reserves. Citation Worm, B. , E. B. Barbier, N. Beaumont, J. E. Duffy, C. Folke, B. S. Halpern, J. B. C. Jackson, H. K Lotze, F. Micheli, S. R. Palumbi, E. Sala, K. A. Selkoe, J. J. Stachowicz, and R. Watson. 2006. Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science 314: 787 -790. Link to Abstract in Science Magazine Food Resources 23

Food Resources 24

He quoted an estimate from the World Bank that if all fisheries around the world were better managed, they would be worth $50 bn a year more than their current total contribution of $274 bn to global GDP. But the number of fisheries that are subject to a sustainable management programme are still a minority, and global fish stocks are falling fast. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, at least a third are now overexploited, depleted or recovering from depletion, and this figure is rising. Food Resources 25

Examples • Will Cod fishing ever return to Newfoundland? • Should irrigation agriculture be banned over the Ogallala Aquifer in the US? • Should American students buy cheap Chinese furniture made from SE Asian wood? Food Resources 26

Newfoundland Cod • • • Fishing methods and the fishery collapse In 1951 factory fishing began with new super-trawlers such as the 'Fairtry'; 280 feet long and 2, 600 gross tons. [3] The cod catch peaked in 1968 at 810, 000 tons, approximately three times more than the maximum yearly catch achieved before the super-trawlers. Approximately 8 million tons of cod were caught between 1647 and 1750, a period encompassing 25 to 40 cod generations. The factory trawlers took the same amount in 15 years. [5] The industry collapsed entirely in the early 1990 s owing to overfishing and debatably, greed, lack of foresight and poor local administration. [6] By 1993 six cod populations had collapsed, forcing a belated moratorium on fishing. [5] Spawning biomass had decreased by at least 75% in all stocks, by 90% in three of the six stocks, and by 99% in the case of 'northern' cod, previously the largest cod fishery in the world. [5] After a 10 year moratorium on fishing the cod had still not returned. [7] It is likely that the local ecosystem has changed, one example being that greater numbers of capelin, which used to provide food for the cod, now eat the juvenile cod. [citation needed] The waters now appear to be dominated by crab and shrimp rather than fish. [7] http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Cod_fishing_in_Newfoundland Food Resources 27

Newfoundland Timeline • 1500 s – Basque fishermen arrive • 1951 – Factory Fishing Begins • 1968 – Peak catch 810, 000 tons – Comparison 1647 -1750 8 mil. Tons caught, factory trawlers caught same amount in 15 yrs • 1977 Canada Extends boundary out 200 miles – then proceeds to decimate what’s left • 1978 Collapse already noticable • 1988 call for cutting quotas by 50% instead compromise at 10% • 1992 – fish stocks down to 1% of 1960 s levels, fishing halted • 1993 – six cod populations had collapsed including northern cod the largest cod fishery in the world • 1996 – fishery closed – too little, too late Food Resources 28 Source: http: //www. emagazine. com/archive/507

Are Tuna Next? http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=M 5 o 8 lwwanuc Food Resources 29

More on Tuna http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=i 5 m. MI 8 t 7 v. V 0&feature=related Food Resources 30

Is there hope – mixed evidence from Newfoundland http: //www. youtube. com /watch? v=4 ik. RWTy. E 2 xo Food Resources 31

III. Food resources -- Let's Consider the Situation A. Main Point: Today the problem is not production it is distribution -- What does this mean? – Asia and Latin America have seen recent per capita gains – Not so in Africa (where will the next wave of immigrants come from? ) Food Resources 32

Food Problems World Deserts • Note the Food Shortage Link to Deserts • What might global warming do? Food Resources 33

Example of Desert Belts http: //earthobservatory. nasa. gov/Global. Maps/view. php? d 1=TRMM_3 B 43 M# Food Resources 34

Climate Zones & Deserts Food Resources http: //www. blueplanetbiomes. org/climate. htm 35

Deserts are encroaching cities. Photograph by Georg Gerster. Sahara dunes tower over Nouakchott, capital of Mauritania, like a big hungry monster. Just 5, 000 years ago the Sahara was covered with grasses and shrubs. http: //didyouknow. org/deserts/# Food Resources http: //www. greenfacts. org/en/desertification/figtableboxes/appendix-a. htm 36

Caloric Intake View Does this look too familiar Food Resources 37

B. Resulting Problem: Maledistribution CAUSES 1. TRANSPORT: Local transport unable to respond to acute, sudden needs (but *AIC’s air transport can, at greater cost) – political unrest always a wildcard here, consider the problems of Tsunami Aid in Indonesia and Sri Lanka *AIC = Advance Industrialized Country Food Resources 38

Example ZAIRE Population 32, 000 Area 2, 345, 457 sq km (Four times larger than Texas) Capital Kinshasa. Large state taking up the central part of Africa. Apart from narrow strip to the Atlantic Ocean http: //hammer. prohosting. com/~penz/encycl/z 1 encyc. htm Diary of a cross-Africa Biker: On my way to Uganda, not far from the Uganda border, I could choose out of two (dirt) roads only (a third option would lead me to a small civil war in the north of Uganda, that is no choice). A bad one and a very bad one. Because the bad one was bad enough for me I chose to take the shortcut from Mambassa to Beni. The other main dirt road of north Zaïre was actually the only road, connecting the north from Zaïre to the east of Zaïre. But because of the raining season and the enormous potholes, it was impossible for the old Fiat and Mercedes trucks to pass. There was no traffic possible for several weeks already! The road I decided to conquer was too small for the trucks and therefore not so bad, I thought. http: //www. euronet. nl/users/arold/bridge. html Food Resources 39

2. STORAGE and MARKETING Storage and Marketing major concerns -- limits food availability • Storage problems reflect a short time horizon – Large losses to Spoilage and Pests Food Resources 40

2. STORAGE and MARKETING Lack of Free Markets • Lack of adequate communication, transportation, & incentives leads to hoarding – true "free" market could largely overcome this issue • landlordism vs landless ("Monopoly", not the game) -- low incentive to produce surplus • Poor Financial Markets -- money lenders that are like parasites Food Resources 41

3. SITE CONSIDERATION Variation in global FOOD resource potential • Americans as the "Opec" leader of grain? • Can't move the mountain, then move to the mountain (immigration pull factor? ? ? ) Food Resources 42

Question • Name other countries that are top 10 food exporters • Second try ranking them • If you can’t think of 10 then give as many as possible Food Resources 43

3. Variation in global FOOD resource potential • Americans as the "Opec" leader of grain? – Note also Europe Food Resources 44

4. Additional Issues • Civil Unrest -- even if food potential high, not available • Environmental Decline -- production can decline – REASONS • lack of full knowledge -- leads to destructive practices • population pressures • tragedy of the commons • "bad science" Food Resources 45

4. Additional Issues cont. • Government Policy & Debt – No discipline of the marketplace – What did American banks do when offered a “free lunch”? – Punish the farmers, Bribe the industrial workers (the shadow of Stalin and central planning) – Sound like the Washington Consensus? Food Resources 46

4. Additional Issues cont. (Neo Classical? ) Structure of Agriculture • Big Farmer vs Small Farmer debate • Issue of a maximizer versus a satisficer • Scale economies not available to small farmers • Cash crops not food favored by big landlords Graph for a typical 3 rd World Nation – is there no free market for food in third world? This demonstrates that larger farms produce a greater percentage of food for the market, but doesn’t address output per acre Food Resources 47

4. Additional Issues cont. • “Unfair” Agricultural Subsidies – Can the third world compete with subsidized first world farmers? ? ? Recall France’s position in surplus/export production. – Example: The US has the highest priced sugar in the world? ? ? Why? • Why can’t we buy cheaper Mexican sugar, our NAFTA partner? • What does this do to candy manufacturing jobs? Food Resources 48

D. Suggested Solutions to Food Resource Issue Food Resources 49

Suggestions • Give at least two suggestions Food Resources 50

1. Increasing Local Production (More Food Answer) a) More (or More Intensive use of) Cultivated area – make More “LAND” • • limited scope environmental issues (marginal lands) high development costs China has already topped-out (see next slide) Food Resources 51

Increase, Decrease and Stock of Cultivated Land in China, 1988 1995 Basically China will be losing Agricultural Land over the long run Food Resources 52

Details on China Source: State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1995. Beijing, 1996. And equivalent reports for 1988 to 1994. This chart demonstrates that China's cultivated land (as in any other country) is not just a given natural resource stock, but the result of various simultaneous processes of increase and decline. In 1995, for instance, China lost some 798. 1 thousand hectares of cultivated land: most of it was converted to horticulture (red bar), used for reforestation (blue bar), or was lost in disasters - mainly floods and draughts (yellow bar). However, China's farmers also expanded the cultivated land by some 388. 9 thousand hectares - mainly by reclamation of previously unused areas, but also by conversion of areas, which were previously used for other purposes. The net-change of these increases and declines, which amounted to some 409. 1 thousand hectares, reduced the stock of cultivated land only slightly. Food Resources 53

Details on China Source: State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1995. Beijing, 1996. And equivalent reports for 1988 to 1994. Some general trends can be easily inferred from this chart: (1) Approximately 70 to 75% of China's cultivated land"losses" are not what people usually imagine - a permanent transformation of cropland into infrastructure or urban areas. Most cultivated landlosses are conversions into other types of agricultural use or losses due to disasters. Infrastructure, settlements and industries account for only some 10 to 15% of the losses. Food Resources 54

Details on China Source: State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1995. Beijing, 1996. And equivalent reports for 1988 to 1994. (2) There is a clear trend of growing decreases since 1990 - a year, when the decreases where actually smaller than the increases of cultivated land. This trend is not matched by an equivalent amount of reclamation, which results in a growing net-loss of cultivated Land in China. See also: Fisher, G. / Chen, Y. / Sun, L. (1989): The balance of cultivated land in China during 1988 -1995. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Interim Report IR-98 -047 http: //www. iiasa. ac. at/Research/LUC/China. Food/data/land_1. htm Food Resources 55

Another Estimate of Ag. Land Loss Food Resources 56

Urban Agriculture? Food Resources 57

b) Attempts at Raising productivity (Greater Efficiency) • Technology: Green Revolution -- mixed results – high on energy use • Social change: Are we not maximizers? Why are some not allowed to maximize http: //www. rferl. org/content/Father_Of_Green_Revolution_Dies_At_95/1822473. html Food Resources 58

Technological Fix – Green Revolution • INDIA's Green Revolution Foodgrains production (in million tonnes) (Approximate percentage share in total foodgrain production is given in brackets) • Production Triples in 45 years – Wheat increases over 7 times. Description 1950 -51 quantity 1983 -94 (percent of total) Rice 20. 6 (40%) 59. 2 (39%) Wheat 6. 4 (13%) 45. 2 (30%) Jowar 5. 5 (11%) 11. 9 ( 8%) Bajra 2. 6 ( 5%) 7. 6 ( 5%) Maize 1. 7 ( 3%) 7. 9 ( 5%) Other cereals 6. 1 (12%) 6. 5 ( 4%) Pulses 8. 4 (17%) 12. 6 (8%) Total foodgrains 50. 8 (100%) 151. 5 (100%) Source : Based on data given in Sixth and Seventh Plan documents and Annual Economic Surveys. From Dogra, op. cit. Food Resources 59

2. Creating New Food a) Cultivate the Oceans What are the issues here? b) "Designer Foods" -- High Protein Cereals Can conventional technology help? c) More efficient use of resources Especially water d) Will people eat the new foods? question of taste and preferences price Food Resources 60

3. Genetic Engineering • Move into the unknown • Better use of limited resources or “Frankenfoods”? ? ? Food Resources 61

17. 3 million farmers grow altered crops How many farmers plant GM worldwide? A record 17. 3 million farmers grew GM crops in 2012, up from 16. 7 million farmers in 2011. Worldwide, 170. 3 million hectares were planted with GM crops in 28 countries – an 100 fold increase since they were introduced in 1996. This is about the same size as the territories of Spain, Germany, France and the UK combined. http: //www. europabio. org/how-many-farmers-plant-gm-worldwide http: //www. upi. com/inc/view. php? Story. ID=20030115 -035541 -1751 r Food Resources 62

China Rushes to Adopt Genetically Modified Crops NY TIMES - 10/7/00 By CRAIG S. SMITH SHAHEXIN VILLAGE, China - Until Monsanto introduced a genetically altered cotton plant here in the buckle on the Chinese Cotton Belt three years ago, farmers like Ma Yuzhuo sprayed their fields with tons of organophosphate pesticides to kill bollworms, grubs that feed on immature cotton bolls. So toxic is the compound, which is similar to the basic ingredient of nerve gas, that many people die from exposure to it each year, though the government will not disclose the number of fatalities. Bioengineered crops are not grown much in Western Europe and have raised safety concerns in the United States. But China has embraced them, growing cotton and other crops faster than any other Asian nation. Saving lives is one motivation. But saving its farm economy is the chief concern. China hopes that genetics can save farmers like Mr. Ma from devastation by helping produce lower-cost high-quality products after it joins the World Trade http: //ipm. osu. edu/trans/10_071. htm Organization. https: //isaaa. org/resources/publications/pocketk/5/default. asp ISAAA. org: Documented Benefits of GM Crops The global area planted to GM crops has consistently increased over the past years. Substantial share of GM crops has been grown in developed countries. In the last few years, however, there has been a consistent increase in the number of hectares being planted to GM crops in the developing world. Fifty four percent (54%) of the total global GM crop area is now being grown in developing countries. A significant increase in GM crop area was reported in developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Experiences Food Resources 63 from these countries show that resource-poor farmers can also benefit from this technology.

What me worry? ? ? Food Resources 64

Franken Food & Green Revolution Sites Genetic Engineering vs Franken Food • ttp: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=q. U 8 Xrio. F 4 CE&feature=related • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=p. KIzt 54 Rnp. M&NR=1 Africa’s Green Revolution • http: //www. clipsyndicate. com/video/playlist/7981/753171? cpt=8&title=beef_ magazine&wpid=0 Food Resources 65

Radio Clip Making News: WTO Says Europe Must Accept Genetically Modified Crops A new survey shows that Europeans are more worried about genetically modified food than terrorism, but yesterday the World Trade Organization reportedly ruled against government bans on genetically engineered imports. Justin Gillis, who writes on biotechnology for the Washington Post, says Europe's concerns over genetically modified crops range from safety to the environment. Aired Wednesday, February 8, 2006. [GUEST LIST & LINKS] Food Resources 66

What IF? ? ? • What if our Petroleum supply was suddenly cutoff? Then what would we do? Food Resources 67

So how does an individual make out? http: //www. havana-guide. com/lifeinhavana. html The average Cuban salary is about 350 -400 Peso Nacional. One Peso Convertible CUC equals 0. 9 USA dollars or 24 Peso Nacional. Some people work for less in shops or museums. There are dentists earning as little as 10 dollars a month. A taxi driver can make more money than a doctor.

Ending Thoughts • Was Malthus correct or incorrect? • Releasing the "untapped human resources" • "Let's Do It" [sic] a revolution -- my place or yours Food Resources 69

Summary 1. Is it too little resource or too much consumption • Too many mouths or too much consumption 2. Recall what a Zero Sum Game Is 3. Is there an Optimal Population? 4. Who defines Sustainable Development? And what the heck is it? 5. What are resources and what are their limits Food Resources 70

Summary 6. What is maximum sustainable yeild? 7. Food currently the main issue is distribution, explain 8. Where are the food problem areas and why? 9. What are the suggested solutions for future food problems and how well might they work? 10. What is your take on the Cuban approach? Food Resources 71

http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=M 5 o 8 lwwanuc

http: //www. huffingtonpost. com/2010/03/05/japan-wontcomply-with-bl_n_487448. html

http: //www. ctv. ca/CTVNews/Canada/20020630/nfld_cod_anniver sary 020630/

http: //ntv. ca/video/? p=15240