Changing Demographics in Swan Valley Montana By Jedd

Changing Demographics in Swan Valley, Montana By Jedd Sankar-Gorton Department of Geography

Terminology • Rural restructuring • “a change in the rural economy, the government or political responsibility for community services and resources. In Canada, and elsewhere, technological advancements, globalization, market regulations and changing demographics are undermining the social and economic viability of rural community life” (Oncescu 2015, 83). • Amenity Migration • “the movement of people based on the draw of natural and/or cultural amenities, can be thought of as both driver and implication of this transition, resulting in significant changes in ownership, use, and governance of rural lands, as well as in the composition and socioeconomic dynamics of rural communities” (Gosnell and Abrams 2009, 1).

Main Research Questions • The commonly held belief is that the Swan Valley is experiencing rural restructuring trends similar to many rural American West communities. Will quantitative analysis of Census data reveal this to be true? • If so, can we specifically identify Amenity Migration trends in the data?

Methods • Data was accessed using the American Factfinder database on Census. gov. • Both Decennial Census and American Communities Survey data was used depending on availability and topic. • Microsoft Excel and Arc. GIS were used to process and visualize data. • Block and Block Group data were used depending on availability.

Background • • • Swan Valley is a small community in Missoula County. Surrounded by mountains, two wilderness areas, and countless bodies of water. About 90% public land. Timber was primary industry from western settlement until the 1990 s. Economy has faltered and been forced to attempt to shift to services and amenities. Historic community is fading but there is some hope.

Population Density 1990 2000 • Population spread between 1990 and 2000. • Density increased between 2000 and 2010. • Both of these trends are related to increased home building on newly subdivided land. 2010

Median Age 2000 2010 • Median age increased between 2000 and 2010. • This shows that few people are being born into the population and that new people arriving are in the older age brackets.

Employment • • For men we see a significant drop in construction and extraction jobs with a general change in overall available jobs. For women we see a general jump in office support, management, and cleaning and maintenance work. Female job numbers over time Male job numbers over time

Housing • • Value of houses in the Swan Valley has skyrocketed with the number of houses valued at or above $200, 000 more than doubling. More than a quarter of houses in the area were built between 1990 and 2011. Year house built Housing value over time

Conclusions • • The population of Swan Valley is increasing in number, density and age. More of the land is being developed. Main job-providing industries are shifting, though overall employment is steady. Housing values are increasing rapidly while age of homes is decreasing.

Sources and Acknowledgements Image Sources: -Jedd Sankar-Gorton -http: //www. taichichihnoco. com/about-tcc/ Data Sources: -Figs 1 and 3 -2000 Census State, Reservation, County, Tract, Block Group, Block and Place. Release Date: August 30, 2014. http: //www. arcgis. com/home/item. html? id=21 e 9 ee 768 ed 3481595 a 8 fe 4 d 68 d 046 ba Accessed 11/1/16 -Figs 2 and 4 - 2010 Census State, Reservation, County, Tract, Block Group, Block and Place. Release Date: June 18, 2012. http: //www. arcgis. com/home/item. html? id=514430 e 48 bc 04 b 449 bc 62 d 40695 c 72 c 2 Accessed 11/1/16 -Figs 5 and 6 -U. S. Census Bureau, 2010 -2014 American Community Survey 5 -Year Estimates, Sex By Occupation For the Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over, http: //factfinder. census. gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview. xhtml? pid=ACS_14_5 YR_C 24010&prod. Type=table Accessed 11/3/16 -Figs 5 and 6 -U. S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Sex By Occupation For the Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over, http: //factfinder. census. gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview. xhtml? pid=DEC_00_SF 3_P 050&prod. Type=table Accessed 11/3/16 -Fig 7 -U. S. Census Bureau, 2010 -2014 American Community Survey 5 -Year Estimates, Employment Status For the Population 16 Years and Over, http: //factfinder. census. gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview. xhtml? pid=ACS_14_5 YR_B 23025&prod. Type=table Accessed 11/9/16 -Fig 7 -U. S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Sex By Employment Status For the Population 16 Years and Over, http: //factfinder. census. gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview. xhtml? pid=DEC_00_SF 3_P 043&prod. Type=table Accessed 11/9/16 -Fig 8 -U. S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Value For All Owner-Occupied Housing Units, http: //factfinder. census. gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview. xhtml? pid=DEC_00_SF 3_H 084&prod. Type=table Accessed 11/8/16 -Fig 9 -U. S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Profile of Selected Housing Characteristics: 2000, http: //factfinder. census. gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview. xhtml? pid=DEC_00_SF 3_DP 4&prod. Type=table Accessed 11/5/16 Literature Sources: -Oncescu, Jacquelyn. 2015. “Rural restructuring and its impact on community recreation opportunities. ” Annals of Leisure Research, 18: 1, 83 -104, DOI: 10. 1080/11745398. 2014. 980834 -Gosnell, Hannah and Jesse Adams. 2011. "Amenity Migration: Diverse Conceptualizations of Drivers, Socioeconomic Dimensions, and Emerging Challenges. " Geojournal 76 (4): 303. Acknowledgements: Thanks to Dr. Christiane von Reichert and Dr. Sarah Halvorson for the new ideas and support.