CHAMBERECON Dr Jay Bryson Global Economist The U

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Dr. Jay Bryson Global Economist

The U. S. Economic Outlook Jay H. Bryson, Managing Director and Global Economist January 24, 2017

Real GDP Forecast Our forecast looks for the economic expansion to continue in coming quarters Source: U. S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 4

Real PCE Forecast Growth in consumer spending should generally remain solid Source: U. S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 5

Business Fixed Investment Forecast Growth in BFI spending should stabilize once the cutbacks in the energy sector come to an end Source: U. S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 6

Government Spending Forecast Growth in government spending likely will strengthen somewhat, even without more infrastructure spending Source: U. S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 7

Current Account Deficit What will happen to U. S. trade policy in coming years? Source: U. S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 8

Federal Deficit As a percent of GDP the budget deficit is less than 3 percent at present Source: CBO, U. S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 9

U. S. Debt Held by Public Under current legislation, the longterm trend is not very encouraging Source: Congressional Budget office and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 10

U. S. Unemployment Rate There is less slack in the labor market today Source: U. S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 11

Average Hourly Earnings Wage inflation is trending higher Source: U. S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 12

PCE Inflation The underlying rate of inflation is slowly starting to trend higher Source: U. S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 13

Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed likely will tighten further, albeit at a slow pace Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 14

Global GDP Growth We forecast that global GDP growth will remain below its long-run average in 2017 and 2018 Source: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 15

Oil Prices Slow global growth and excess supply likely will keep oil prices depressed for some time Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, January 2017 Economics 16

Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group Global Head of Research and Economics Economists Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… …. diane. schumaker@wellsfargo. com Global Head of Research & Economics Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist …… Sarah House, Economist Chief Economist John E. Silvia … . . … ………… Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … michael. a. brown@wellsfargo. com Economic Analysts Senior Economists Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………. . sarah. house@wellsfargo. com Jamie Feik, Economist jamie. feik@wellsfargo. com john. silvia@wellsfargo. com . eric. viloria@wellsfargo. com Misa Batcheller, Economic Analyst mark. vitner@wellsfargo. com misa. n. batcheller@wellsfargo. com Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………. . …… …. jay. bryson@wellsfargo. com Michael Pugliese, Economic Analyst michael. d. pugliese@wellsfargo. com Sam Bullard, Senior Economist sam. bullard@wellsfargo. com Julianne Causey, Economic Analyst julianne. causey@wellsfargo. com Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … E. Harry Pershing, Economic Analyst edward. h. pershing@wellsfargo. com Administrative Assistants ……nicholas. bennenbroek@wellsfargo. com. anika. khan@wellsfargo. com Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… …………eugenio. j. aleman@wellsfargo. com Donna La. Fleur, Executive Assistant. donna. lafleur@wellsfargo. com Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… Dawne Howes, Administrative Assistant dawne. howes@wellsfargo. com azhar. iqbal@wellsfargo. com Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, a U. S broker-dealer registered with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and Tim Quinlan, Investor Senior. Protection Economist ……………. . tim. quinlan@wellsfargo. com the Securities Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N. A. , Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities. ("WFS") is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N. A. ("WFBNA") is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this publication. Wells Fargo Securities does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2017 Wells Fargo Securities. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE Important Information for Non-U. S. Recipients For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited ("WFSIL"). WFSIL is a U. K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. For purposes of the U. K. Financial Conduct Authority’s rules, this report constitutes impartial investment research. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the "Materials") are provided for general informational purposes only. Economics 17