Challenges of Nanotech I TECHNOLOGY II IMPLICATIONS III

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology II. Understand Implications III. Prepare Solutions IV. Implement

I. TECHNOLOGY • Desktop manufacturing is on its way • Not IF, but HOW

Molecular Toolbox Nanoscale Conveyor Belt Ultra-short Pulsed Laser Nanoscale Elevator © 2004 Center for

Lab-on-SEM Technical University of Denmark — a whole lab integrated under an electron microscope

MNT in Russia? © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology • Fixation, displacement and activation

Building a proto-assembler? CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix says: “If I were going

The Cost Factor Manipulation instrument ~ $30 K US AFM instrument ~ $6 K

Will Russia get MNT first? March 2004: Institute of Nanotechnology (makers of above instruments)

Rapid Bootstrapping Basic design by R. Merkle, artwork by K. E. Drexler © 2004

The Nanofactory • Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units • Combine nanoscale

Exponential Doubling © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology — Happening II. Understand Implications III. Prepare Solutions

II. IMPLICATIONS Will be transformative — probably disruptive • Not WHETHER, but HOW MUCH

U. S. Semiconductor Industry • U. S. 2003 Sales = $80 Billion • Worldwide

Electronics Products • Retail distribution = almost $300 billion annually in U. S. alone

Global Steel Industry • Over 200 steel-making companies • $700 billion in sales ©

More Implications • Environmental damage • Universal surveillance • Unstable arms races • No

Nano Pollution Ultimate test for the “Throw-away Society”? © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Surveillance © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Lack of Privacy © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Nano Weapons § § Easy to build Hard to monitor Easy to deliver Obsolete

WMD Proliferation © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Terrorism © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Arms Race © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

War © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

We need solutions… And we need them now. © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology II. Satisfactory Understand Implications outcome requires III. Prepare

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology — Happening II. Understand Implications — Well begun

III. SOLUTIONS • No easy answers!! • Nanofactory control options • Global administration network?

Nanofactory Control Options DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS TECHNICAL RESTRICTIONS Tight Loose - Makes black market

Old World Our lifetimes: • Cold War • Berlin Wall • Space Race •

New World 21 st Century: • World wide web • American empire • Globalization

Next World In a few years: • Exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing • Wonderful benefits

Earth on the Brink Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity

Unanswered Questions How soon? No one knows. How disruptive? No one knows. © 2004

Who is Interested? • People’s Republic of China • British Royal Society • U.

Web References to CRN In all these languages… Arabic, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German,

IV. GLOBALIZATION • The challenges of nanotechnology will have to be addressed by a

IV. GLOBALIZATION • The only answer is a collective answer, and that will demand

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology When and How? II. Understand Implications Satisfactory What

Our Greatest Challenge We must begin now to develop common understanding, create lines of

How You Can Help • Contact your Senators/Representatives • Join the C-R-Network • We

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Challenges of Nanotech I. TECHNOLOGY II. IMPLICATIONS III. SOLUTIONS IV. GLOBALIZATION Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Senior Associates Gathering © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology May 16, 2004 Palo Alto, California, USA

I. TECHNOLOGY • Desktop manufacturing is on its way • Not IF, but HOW SOON • Gating factor is determination, not feasibility • Increasing number of routes to get there © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Lab-on-SEM Technical University of Denmark — a whole lab integrated under an electron microscope § Two manipulators and a turntable, and MEMS tips for the manipulators § They can build 20 -nanometer tips on the MEMS tips by using the electron beam to deposit metal atoms § Small enough to move individual molecules around © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

MNT in Russia? © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology • Fixation, displacement and activation of atoms, polymerization, deposition, etching in technological chamber and flexible microreactors • Efficient seismic and acoustic isolation • Accuracy of positioning control - 1 A • Step displacement of sample along X, Y axes - 10 mm • High-speed and wide scanning at range up to 30 x 30 u and detailed investigation at region less than 1 x 1 nm

Building a proto-assembler? CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix says: “If I were going to specify a system for building the final proto-assembler, it might look quite a lot like this. ” © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Will Russia get MNT first? March 2004: Institute of Nanotechnology (makers of above instruments) and Youth Science Society announce "competition of Russian youth projects on domestic MNT development". © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

The Nanofactory • Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units • Combine nanoscale pieces into large-scale products • General-purpose manufacturing in a tabletop format • Extremely advanced products with compact functionality • Produce its own weight in hours; produce copies of itself © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

II. IMPLICATIONS Will be transformative — probably disruptive • Not WHETHER, but HOW MUCH and HOW FAST • Economists have term: creative destruction • AKA: unemployment lines © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

More Implications • Environmental damage • Universal surveillance • Unstable arms races • No privacy • WMD proliferation • Intellectual property • War • Terrorism violation • Black markets • Smuggling © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology II. Satisfactory Understand Implications outcome requires III. Prepare Solutions IV. Implement Globally © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology all four to be effectively addressed.

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology — Happening II. Understand Implications — Well begun III. Prepare Solutions — Barely started IV. Implement Globally — Zilch © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

III. SOLUTIONS • No easy answers!! • Nanofactory control options • Global administration network? ? • Risks from competitive development • Single international crash program? ? • Avoiding an arms race © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Nanofactory Control Options DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS TECHNICAL RESTRICTIONS Tight Loose - Makes black market inevitable - Intellectual property violations - Manufacture of dangerous products - Intellectual property violations - Removes incentive for black market - Prevents alleviation of human suffering - Allows alleviation of human suffering - Hinders creation of prosperity - Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity - Makes black market inevitable - Reduces incentive for black market © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Who is Interested? • People’s Republic of China • British Royal Society • U. S. National Science Foundation • U. S. Environmental Protection Agency • ACUNU Millennium Project • Institute of Nanotechnology — Russia • Greenpeace International © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Web References to CRN In all these languages… Arabic, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Hungarian, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Persian, Russian, Spanish, Swedish, Turkish, and English. © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

IV. GLOBALIZATION • The challenges of nanotechnology will have to be addressed by a diverse collection of people and organizations. • No single approach will solve all problems or address all needs. © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

IV. GLOBALIZATION • The only answer is a collective answer, and that will demand an unprecedented collaboration of leaders in science, technology, business, government, and NGOs. • It will require participation from people of many nations, cultures, languages, and belief systems. © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Challenges of Nanotech I. Develop Technology When and How? II. Understand Implications Satisfactory What and When? III. Prepare Solutions Who and What? IV. Implement Globally What and How? © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology outcome (survival? ) requires all four to be effectively addressed.

Our Greatest Challenge We must begin now to develop common understanding, create lines of communication, and build a stable structure that will enable humankind to pass safely through the transition into the nano era. © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

How You Can Help • Contact your Senators/Representatives • Join the C-R-Network • We need contacts, researchers, money WEBSITE: www. CRNano. org EMAIL: mtreder@CRNano. org Thank you! © 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology