Ch 1 Intro to Political Parties I Political
- Slides: 95
Ch. 1 (Intro to Political Parties) I. Political Parties and Democracy II. A. Washington – “Let me warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party. ” III. B. Public – consistently suspicious of parties IV. *Would we be better off w/o parties? How would elections be administered? Who will select candidates? Voter turnout? Basis of vote? II. Questions for course: III. A. What is the a political party? (IG, movement) IV. B. Who belongs to a party? V. C. What effect do they have in politics? VI. III. Definition of Parties
A. Three parts 1. Party in the Electorate – parties are factions of like-minded citizens with common values (Burke). But so are interest groups. 2. Party in Government - Political Leaders with a common goal, control government. 3. Party Organization – organizations that have independent lives and independent rules. The interplay between these three parts presents conflicts and challenges for parties to attain their goal of electoral success.
IV. A. What Parties Do Elect (select) Candidates – Party activity rises and falls with the timing of elections. Three parts of parties put aside differences for sake of winning. B. Educating ____ 1. Inform them of party/candidate positions 2. Provide a “_____” for voters to make decisions (party id conveys something to voters). Example: Republicans seen as conservative, party of the affluent, small government.
C. Governing (party role) 1. Basis of legislative organization (leadership, committee composition, etc. ) 2. Legislator voting behavior (courts too) 3. Shape the balance of power in a ______ system. *However, our system also features other influences (media, groups, voters) V. Results of Party Activities A. Simplify elections, makes voting easier (increases turnout? ) B. Helps organize and gather political power (voting coalitions) that are big enough to govern or oppose. Interest Groups try to attract supporters beyond their members like parties, but they remain ____ the group’s organization. But the Party in the electorate chooses candidates (semi-public).
C. Recruit candidates and directs them to respective offices. Parties are _____ in our system, so leadership change is seen as stable here (unlike many other societies) D. Bring unity to a very divided American political system. Helps overcome the institutional challenges, created by founders, of making the fragments worth together without tyranny. VII. Uniqueness of Political Parties (compared to groups) A. Emphasis on elections B. Full-time commitment to political activity (never apolitical)
C. Large #’s – winning elections, not access, is the goal. Method: Big-tent, mass appeal, broad scope. D. Endurance – size, ability to transcend candidates, issues, voting groups E. Symbols – parties convey instant, widely understood political ______; ballots typically have party denoted VII. History of Party Development A. Founding of American Parties 1. Dominance of Party in Gov’t a. Limited voter participation; indirect elections (Senate) b. Caucuses of like-minded congress members. 2. Two factions in congress a. Hamilton’s ______ – centralized control of economy
b. Jefferson’s/Madison’s state’s rights advocates B. Party Organizations – began out of a need for communication between national and state party leaders in gov’t. The elitist Federalists did not emphasize this grassroots effort; fell away by early 1800 s. C. Era of Good ______ – Single party dominance of Democrat-Republicans. 1. Democratization of states and national politics laid foundation for the coming 2 -party system. • Expansion of voting rights • Popular election of electors (not state legs) 2. Erosion of caucus nominations for president • Nomination/election chaos 1824 Caucus nominated Crawford. He finished fourth in the general election. No one got a majority of electors, house decided on _______ (although Jackson won the mos electors and popular votes).
D. Foundation of the 2 -party system 1. Dem-Rep divorce • Jacksonian Democrats – agrarian/rural interests • Clay supporters w/ Whigs (eventually, Republicans) 2. With more participation, parties focused energy on mass communication, outreach. Hence, more grassroots organization (shift from national leaders to general public). E. Golden Age of Parties 1. European Immigration (5 mill – 1880; 10 mill 1914); found a home with Dems 2. American Party (or “________”): antiimmigration.
3. “City Machines” – Social Services for immigrants in industrial cities. 4. Golden Age: a. b. c. d. e. Organization existence in all states and localities Discipline high Party activities high, visible Control over candidate access to all offices Sources of information for a largely illiterate population f. Highest turnout in American history.
F. Progressive Reforms and Beyond 1. Concern – corruption and gov’t inefficiency 2. Replaced “______” (party leaders selecting candidates), with direct primaries (voters select candidates) 3. Won legislation limiting party organization strength of recruitment/nomination/election process. 4. Does NOT mean that party politics is now in the hands of party in the _________. a. Voter PID attachment still weak b. With reforms, candidates now stronger too (selfrecruitment, campaign independence)
Chapter 2 American Two-Party System I. Facts: Dominated by two parties since 1830; same two parties since 1860 s. II. Questions • Why just two parties? • Why the same two parties? • What happens to third-parties? (e. g. , Greens, Reform, Libertarians, Dixiecrats) III. Two Party System – National A. Presidential Elections • • _____ presidential elections, 6 decided by more than 20% pop vote. 50% decided by < 7% Getting more competitive – most competitive races = last forty years.
B. • C. • • IV. • • A. • Congressional Since 1932, never an overall vote margin greater than _____%. Most less than 10%. Description of 2 PS nationally Competitive Responsive – able to overcome failures State level- difficult to describe. Competitiveness depends on the office. President, Senate, state legislative, statewide, governor? Which office do we look at? Is _______ or winning % the measure of competitiveness? Measuring Competitiveness Ranney Index (p. 27 & Fig 2. 2)
• • V. A. 1=complete Dem success; 0=complete Rep success. How would we classify Mississippi? Does NOT mean that opposing parties are defeating ______ in congressional races. Incumbency advantage (probability of winning) has been growing the last several decades. So, party competition is up at all levels, but congressional incumbents still have big advantages. What must be going on? – Parties don’t ______ seats as they turnover in C, incumbents do. Why Two-Parties? Institutional Theories
1. Duverger’s Law – single-member districts with ______ elections result in 2 -party systems. Why? • Minor parties see no reason to participate if second place finishers get nothing. • Compare to multi-member/proportional systems: (p. 30) 2. Direct Primary – disputes that normally lead to third parties are resolved without them because disgruntled party voters can influence the ______ process. B. Dualist Theory 1. Democracies are characterized by tension between two competing factions (e. g. , commercial/agrarian interests; status quo/change; ______/_______; orthodox/progressives) 2. Two parties expand appeal to exhaust interests
C. Social ______ Theory 1. There is not significant disagreement over basic/fundamental values. There is widespread acceptance of social, economic, and political institutions (i. e. , Constitution, capitalism, social class and status patterns) 2. Britain and Canada also two-party (Anglo-American tradition) VI. Exceptions to the Rule A. Nonpartisan Elections – race with candidate party affiliation not denoted. – _______ local elections nonpartisan. Many judgeships too. (_____ state legislature).
B. One party monopolies • Regions (South; VT, ME, NH) • Areas with no ______ diversity (income, ed, job status) • Redistricting C. Third-parties 1. Little success - only ____ pres elections w/ a minor party carrying a state - 10% vote, highest ever (Perot: 1996) -Congress, only 7 elections with minor parties winning 10 seats or more (fig. 2. 1: decline) 2. Practical Limitations (p. 37) – typically must demonstrate _____ before getting on ballot or getting money (public or private). Catch-22.
Part 2 (Party Organization) Chapter 3 (State and Local) I. Consequences of organizational strength A. Endurance – despite changing cultures, candidates, officeholders B. Keepers of party symbols – keeps party affiliation meaningful to voters (shortcuts for candidates and voters) II. State Laws – Basis for regulation? _____ A. Generally, states fall into three categories of regulation: tight (17), medium (18), and light (15; MS). • Tight would include telling the state party when to meet and procedures for constructing local organizations. • National parties are not likewise regulated
B. 1. 2. 3. 4. a. b. Levels of Party Organization A cake, not a pyramid (Fig. 3. 1). Not a ______. Committeemen – typically chosen by local party caucuses or primary elections (some appointed by higher party authorities) Local Committees – city, county, and congressional district. Most important usually is the _____. These too are often regulated by state (“public utilities”). State Central Committees Composition - Most state legislatures select these members Powers – calling/organizing conventions; drafting platforms; spending campaign funds; selecting presidential electors; reps to the national committee; selection of some nat’l convention delegates/alternatives.
C. • • • III. A. B. C. Conclusions about state organizations and regulations Structures correspond to _______; state law regarding party structure designed to facilitate elections State laws treat party organizations as a mixture of public and private. Not totally public (organization still has much autonomy) and not totally private (committee members typically selected by voters; mostly primaries). Stratarchy, not hierarchy Party Machines – Chicago (p. 56); Characteristics Typically local Total control over nominations; everyone in the party follows orders from top of the machine. Based on “mutually beneficial exchange” i. e. , votes for jobs (patronage system) and
Campaign money for government favors (businesses) D. Started with Immigrants E. Typically Democrats F. Nonideological – based on material needs, not ideas/values. G. In decline, why? • Economic expansion/progress • Political reform – protection of city jobs (civil service) and federal ______ programs IV. Local Party Revitalization A. Local parties have improved organizationally since 1980 in distributing literature, arranging campaign events, raising funds, publicizing candidates, and ______ voters.
B. V. A. 1. 2. 3. The growth has especially occurred at the _____ organization level. Why? Money. Self-generated and transferred. State Parties Traditionally, local parties and national parties were the centers of party power, not states. Why? Decentralization – state parties composed of competing factions among strong local parties (liberal – conservative, rural-urban, local leader loyalties) Progressive Reforms – direct primaries undercut state party control over nominations and elections. _____ also hurts party control Single party dominance – diverse forces produce intraparty factions; less unity than with an opposing party.
B. Recent Increase in Strength - 1960, 50% of state orgs had permanent state hq’s. Now, practically all do. Most with full-time chairs, staffs, and so on. 1. Fund-raising – By 1999, _____% held fund-raising events and had direct mail fund-raising programs. This money and help with raising it has enhanced state party ability to recruit candidates (p. 63; Table 3. 2). 2. Campaign Services – parties have become significant resources to candidates via training, polling, advertising, voter-mobilization. 3. Republican Advantage – _____; why? - Bigger budgets; specialized staffs; polling; more likely to transfer money from state to local and from national to states ($250 m - R and $114. 6 m – D)
VI. A. Conclusions Party organizations at state and local level have become ______ thanks to more resources, fund-raising, professionalization, selling themselves to candidates. B. Still, less impact on parties than they once had in the 19 th century. Why? • More competition for attention of voters, candidates, and media (campaign consultants and interest groups compete with parties). • Although more money for campaigns, still holds small percentage of most candidates’ spending (5____% of $ for state legislative races). C. State and locals have recaptured “a” role in candidate campaigns and elections, but NOT a _____ role like before.
Chapter 4 – National Party Organizations I. Intro A. HQs in D. C. B. Republicans started ____ and built more effective NPOs (i. e. , National Party Organizations) C. Historically – real power at the bottom (i. e. , decentralization). State and Local experienced little interference from NPOs. Why? 1. patronage system 2. public officials largely chosen through state elections with state regulations. D. Growth in impact/role of NPOs. Why? 1. Mass media nationalizing politics 2. Federal Gov’t expansion
II. A. 3. voters responding and thinking more in terms of national issues/politics 4. National party in government (Pres and Congress) becoming principle ______ for parties. National party Committees and Officers National Committees (DNC/RNC) – main governing institutions of two major parties. Meets rarely, primarily at ____________, and thus can’t effectively supervise whole party 1. Traditionally – arranged confederally, with committee representation equal among states. 2. Currently – Dems changed. Population of state greatly determines # of members. Also, loyal groups (minorities, women) receive especial/independent representation on the committee. 3. Selection Method matters – if members chosen by state party committee or conventions, then…
…state party organization control selection. If members chosen by primaries or national convention delegates, SPOs _____ influential. III. Officers – National chair, vice chair, secretaries, treasurers, members of the executive committee A. In-party (party of current pres) – chair typically chosen by _____. B. Out-party (party out of White House) – chair chosen by national committee C. Committee/Presidential Power – Committee more powerful after a Presidential election _____. Victorious committees defer to Presidential authority. -In-party – chair must look/act/be loyal to President. Ideologically similar to Pres. -Out-party – chair must be ____, don’t identify with any candidate. Ideologically neutral. IV. Supporting Cast of National Groups – formal role…
…for supportive groups A. Special Groups 1. Women’s Divisions – formal organizations among both parties. Diminished in influence as parties allow more women to lead 2. Young People – (i. e. , Young Republicans National Federation and Young Democrats of America). Nat’l committees have little control and sometimes are embarrassed by their typical _______. B. Officeholders in States 1. State governors have full-time Washington office with financial help from NCs. Influential only among out-parties. 2. State legislators – not very influential for long. Exception: Democratic Leadership Council (1985) – seeks to promote _______ among Dems with moderate candidates who can win the South. Clinton’s baby. Who will it push in 2004?
C. V. A. B. Congressional Campaign Committees (Hill Committees) – DCCC and NRCC/DSCC and NRSC. Goal – reelection of members and success of parties candidates in challenges and open seats. 1. Rising in prominence through fund-raising (see Table 4. 2). 2. Pose _____ to influence of national party committees’ (competition). Impact of National Parties On state and local parties 1. no shift in power, still at _____. But Dems more receptive to shift. 2. NPs could use its new money to discourage resistance from state and local parties. On Presidency 1. More resources means more _______ from Pres, but Presidents keep them subordinate
2. Out-party – more independent, but concentrates on leaders in Congress (see ya Gore!). C. On Congress – National Committee less influential than Congressional Campaign Committees. CCCs may influence compliance of its members with its _____ (party loyalty). VI. Limits on Nat’l Party Organization A. Still in hands of part-timers and nonprofessionals B. Americans still uncomfortable with strong parties C. Strength implies ______. Not compatible with system where winning is everything; need to be flexible and accommodating. More compatible with parties of unchanging principles. D. Elections: Candidate centered; so ______ will be.
I. A. 1. 2. 3. B. Chapter 5 Political Party Activists Motivations – millions of workers, very few _____. Why join up? Material Incentives Patronage – for campaign help via money or sweat. Yet, these have _______ because of civil service and merit system expansion (party loyalty less a basis for gov’t jobs). Elected office – first step in office-seeking (____% county chairs hope to run one day) Preferments – (i. e. , political favoritism). Rewarding activists with gov’t goodies (contracts, subsidies, tax breaks) Social Incentives – reward of social contact (social life self-rewarding)
C. D. II. A. 1. 2. 3. 4. _____ Incentives – the issue or ideological goals are reward enough. (e. g. , pro-abortion activists may join the Democrats as the vehicle). Mixed Incentives? – Purposive mostly cited as motivation. But, as they begin to work in the party, motivation shifts to _____ incentives (make relationships; p. 89 Robin Vuke). What kinds of People? Common Characteristics Family history of activism High SES (income, ed, occupation status). For instance, people with incomes > $____k are 4 times more likely to work on a campaign. Social Characteristics: Dems draw from blacks, union members, and Catholics (nonorthodox). Layman (orthodox-progressive/secularist divide). Extremists are more likely to join up.
B. 1. Professionals and Amateurs Professional – first love, the party (especially the paid workers). 2. Amateurs – first love, issues/ideology; party only the means Table 5. 1 Comparing their values/goals/priorities III. Activists’ Motives and Party Strength A. Internal Party Democracy 1. Begun to demand louder voice. Amateurs and professionals differ on party _____ & democracy. Activists want openness to obtain ideological goals. 2. Helped or hurt party strength? Hurts ____ (org. answering to workers not leaders), but may help activist recruiting and work ethic.
B. ‘Stratarchy’ Rules (p. 103) – why has it not become ruled from the top (more uniform)? 1. Activists grown to _______ influence 2. Lower party levels/leaders (e. g. , county chairs) have considerable control over higher levels 3. Internal competition and fragmentation. Parties composed of competing groups/factions preventing domination. 4. Officeholders independence – officeholders today do not rely on party org for nomination or election as much, so they create their own power base in party and compete with party _____ for influence.
Religion and the Party Activists – Layman lecture Composition of Party Convention Delegates Full. Text. Server (Laymand Party Activists). pdf (Figure 1; Table 1; Figure 2; Figure 4)
I. II. A. B. Part 3 (Party in the Electorate) Chapter 6 (Party Identification) Introductory Questions – How do we develop partisan attachments? Is partisan attachment ____? What effect does PID (party identification) have on political parties or American politics? Identification – attachment/affiliation with political party. Strong-R, weak-R, independent-leaning R, pure independent, ind-leaning D, weak D, strong D Popular – 55% have either “strong” or weaker partisan attachments. Convenient – PID gives individuals an _____ way to vote w/o having to do all the research necessary to make informed decisions on candidates or issues.
III. Party Identification: Development A. Youthful Influences 1. Primary source: parents (blind PID) 2. Middle/High school begin to attach ______ to their PID. 3. PID is sustained in young adulthood because friends, associates, and relatives typically hold their parent’s PID too. Same is true of ______ factors like religious institutions (which may add or strengthen). B. Adulthood Influences 1. Longer PID is held, more firm it gets. 2. Older adults more ______ than younger • On some occasions, committed Ds/Rs change PID. Sometimes temporarily and others permanent (realignments). Young people are considered the “_____” of realignment since they are more open to change.
IV. Patterns of Partisanship over time • PID is fairly _____, but changes in PID in response to political conditions (e. g. , especially economic evaluations of parties) has grown in the ____s & early 90 s. • Table 6. 1 shows _______ since 1952. Usually, change from year to year does not exceed 2% (never more than 7%). • 1970 s – drop in proportion of party identifiers; increase in independent identifiers. Independents went from quarter to ______ of respondents. PID fading? A. Decline in PID (fig. 6. 1)? 1. Party Decline Thesis – more independents, weaker affiliations. 2. Other democracies saw the following:
• More independents; decline in confidence in parties; increase in “_____” voting. Why? – – – 3. Education levels rise (cues less needed) Candidate independence from parties Media ____ and ignorance of parties Party rebound – since 70 s, PID has largely reversed to match 1950 s.
V. A. 1. 2. B. 1. 2. 3. Party Identification and Voting Party Voting A ____ in pres and congressional elections vote for their party’s candidate. In presidential races, Republicans more loyal. In Congressional races, Dems held Congress due to Dem loyalty in congressional races. _____ in 90 s (Reps were more loyal). Straight-ticket voting – most likely among strong partisans. What about candidates and issues Voting depends on short and long term forces. Long-term – ______ Short-term – particular candidates, issues
4. Short-term forces sometimes cause split-ticket voting. • Economic retrospections/prospections • Conscious desire to ______ the government on part of moderates (Fiorina: your book denies this). • Issues (south, evangelicals), crises, scandals, charisma… C. Party Identification and Participation • Partisans are more politically ______ than weaker partisans/independents. How? Voting (80 -90% claim to), persuasion, actively support candidates (display, money). But, caused by _______ SES also.
VI. A. The Politically Independent Attitudinal Independents – “I do not identify with any party” • More likely to _______ their tickets & late deciders in campaigns. 1. Leaning and pure independents (big difference) Leaning independents are actually MORE partisan in some ways than weak partisans (tables 6. 2 -4: more politically active, more partisan in voting for president). But pure independents are politically ______, less active, and truly less partisan than all categories. 2. Conclusion on independents: diverse group with the most inactive/uninformed but also sometimes exhibit more political ________ than many other categories.
I. A. B. C. II. A. Chapter 7 (Party Support/Realignments) Intro Party coalition: groups (SES and demographic) that make up a party’s support through good times and bad. Realignments: big enduring changes in those coalitions This chapter: (1) nature and history of realignment (2) description of current coalitions (3) coalitional change in the last ____ years (new realignment? ). Realignments – change in coalitions and change in majority party: The 5 Party Systems (long term, not short term “_____” elections such as we have had often since 1952; (e. g. , Dems more identifiers; Reps more pres election victories) First Party System (1801 -1828) – Cause: opposing groups within the Washington administration. Feds vs. Anti-Feds. Issue: size and power of nat’l gov’t. Produced one party ______ (Jefferson Dems).
B. Second Party System (1829 -1860) Democratic party became too diverse to sustain intraparty differences. Issues: national gov’t economic power, how to expand the Union, slavery. Two factions emerged: Western faction led by Jackson (Democrats). Eastern faction led by JQ Adams (Whigs). Jackson was denied presidency by HR in ______ (though he won the pop vote). 1828, he won. The split was on. Class based: wealthier = Whigs. But, cross-cutting issues and minor parties fractured the Whigs. C. Third Party System (1861 -1896) Republicans emerged as anti-slavery party and replaced Whigs in the North and NE. Clear coalitional patterns, with North mostly Republican and South mostly Democratic.
D. Fourth Party System (1897 -1932) Civil War party system faded as agrarian and industrial interests produced new coalitions. Eastern economic sector (industrial base) against Western and Southern economic sectors (agrarian). Republicans dominated ____ politics. Progressive Party and 1928 Democrat Al ______ (1 st nominated Catholic) brought changes to coalitions (driving Protestant Southerners to the Republicans). E. Fifth Party System (1933 -present? ) Great Depression 1929. Response: New Deal programs. By 1936, Dems were party of industrial workers and _______ members, poor farmers, Catholics and Jews, blacks; plus the South (loyalty = “genetic” or blind).
III. Social Bases of Party Coalitions (7. 2, p. 124) Divisions are typically class based. Madison pointed this out about “factions. ” SES differences established the New Deal system and is still evident today. A. SES: Lower SES is usually associated with Dem PID. But today, high SES does not necessarily mean Rep PID; it is roughly even. Same true of education and occupation. SES is less a basis of PID in US than other Western democracies. Parties are less likely to make class based appeals here than elsewhere (Dems more than Reps because of more loyal lower class? ). B. Sectional Divisions: Most enduring and clear = South. 11 southern states have voted together with few exceptions in most presidential elections and have traditionally been solidly Democratic in PID. Civil Rights movement began the process of change. By 2000, not solidly Dem in PID (not distinctive from North in national elections).
Debate: Is the South in transit? That is, is it in between Democratic dominance and Republic dominance? C. Religious Divisions New Deal Coalition saw Jews and Catholics overwhelmingly loyal to the Dems. Still strong for Jews, but less true today of Catholics (7. 2). Protestants: Pre-1970 Protestant PID was driven by SES. Faith mattered less politically as Protestants, even conservative ones, emphasized “otherworldliness. ” As government has expanded, secularization and modernism has emerged, Protestants, especially conservative ones, have been more motivated by faith despite SES and have developed a public faith that emphasizes this world. Protestants: No PID change since 1970 s, but misleading • Evangelical Protestants (2004 % GOP): 56% – Committed: 65 -70% – Non-committed: 40 -47% • Mainline Protestants: 44% – Committed: 50 -59% – Non-committed: 26 -35%
Religious Group and PID Change (19641996) Source: Kohut, Green, Keeter, and Toth (2000: 76)
D. Racial Divisions Between 1930 -1960, black Americans, originally loyal to the party of ____, have changed loyalties under the New Deal coalition. Black Americans = most loyal partisan group (regardless of SES, region; 7. 2=84%) E. Ethnic Divisions Hispanics – typically ______, but their diversity in terms of nationalities differ. Cuban Americans (FL) more conservative/Republican, anti-communist. Larger Mexican-American (CA) group more Democratic. Republicans see an opportunity. F. Gender Divisions – 2 decades, Gender ______. Women differ with men on “use of force” issues and some social programs. 6 -7% more women favor Dem PID. Due more to men becoming Republican than women becoming Democratic.
IV. Issue Preferences and PID (Table 7. 3) A. Welfare State (Panels A-B: big difference) Not just a function of SES (poor people favoring welfare state. B. Civil Rights, Defense Spending, Abortion (panels C-E) Abortion and other “culture war” issues (religiously based issues) used to be a “cross-cutting issue” (i. e. , did not affect PID). It has moved from cross-cutting to _____ reinforcing. Many suspect that parties and party identifiers are changing and becoming more ______ ideologically (panel F) and perhaps religiously. (Read, 135) V. Sixth Party System? 70 years, longest intermission. A. Yes: If Realignment means that coalitions have changed ______, then yes. SES differences are no longer sufficiently predictive over PID.
White Southerners and blacks have gone in ______ directions; with white Southerners increasingly Republican and blacks almost exclusively Democratic compared to 1960. Parties themselves have changed rhetoric, commitments, and platforms to take on more polarized positions than _______ (R-more conservative; D-more liberal; e. g. affaction). B. No: No new majority party. Democratic edge in PID eroded in 1964 -1980 = even. 1980 s, Republican surge in PID. Young voters more Rep first time since polling. 1994, Republican victories in the South unprecedented. But after 1992, Rep PID stopped surging. Dem PID up a little since. With rise in the # of independents (40% of some sort), can’t say a ______ majority has emerged.
C. Dealignment? Evidence: ______ PID numbers for Republicans and decline in Democratic identifiers since 1960. Still, three possibilities can’t be ruled out: 1. In State of long-term dealignment 2. Dealignment is about to produce a new realignment of the major parties (rigid definition) 3. Realignment has _______ occurred (loose definition)
Chapter 8 (Voting Behavior) I. • • • Intro points: Does it matter who does/does not vote? Federalists – failed to adjust to new electorates; died. Party Coalition groups may have different voting rates; as these group rates change, party positions change but also the balance of party power changes. II. Low Turnout (figure 8. 1) • 51% 2000 pres election; 34% midterm 1998 • Also, “_____” masks even less voting. In 2000 congressional election, 4% less than for pres and less again for state and local. • American turnout _____ than other democracies Questions: Healthy for democracy? What if nonvoters vote?
III. • • • Expansion of Suffrage – 1) Originally, the constitution leaves requirements to _____ 2) constitutional amendments have greatly nationalized minimum requirements White males given the vote earlier than any other democracy. Property/income requirements gradually dropped by states 1800 -1840. Women – 1890 Wyoming; then ____th amendment 1920 banned gender discrimination in voting Black Americans – 15 th: no state can deny voting rights based on race. Protected suffrage not until 1960 s. (more later) 18 year olds – ____th amendment (1971)
• Moter voter (1993) – can get registered where you get your license. IV. Legal Barriers to Voting A. Citizenship – millions not eligible until “naturalized” (2 -3 years) B. Residence – 1970 median residence requirement was _____ year in state, 3 in county, and 1 month in district. Since, half have dropped altogether; most of the rest = 30 days. Mobility another residence factor. 1 in 6 move in a year. Takes time to learn how/where/when to register and vote. Depresses turnout (would be ____% higher) C. Registration – most states you must register in advance. Registration response to corruption and illegal voting. Depresses turnout due to _______ closing dates (30 days for many), purging
registration rolls (missing elections kicks you off), registrar accessibility. If relaxed, registration would probably _____. V. Black voting; a special case/history A. Systematic denial after 15 th amendment for 90 years. Why? Control election results (protect a group of politicians, who were white). How? Poll taxes, literacy tests, grandfather clauses: registered all men whose ancestors were eligible before Civil War, “white primary” declaring that parties are _________ for whites only primaries are private party activities (21 lawsuits later, ended). Voting Rights Act 1965, 1982 – authorized Justice Department to _______ voting practices in places where a “pattern or practice” of discrimination existed and where voter turnout was less than 50% (federal registrar monitors).
B. Growth in Black Registration in the South Was _____% in 1940; 65% 1992. Whites, 61 to 68%. What about MS? (p. 149, Fig. 8. 2) C. From Voting to Representation Redistricting (drawing district lines) as a means not of prevent black voting, but black candidate victories. How? Splintering black populations so that they never are a majority. After 1990, black politicians, Hispanic Democrats, and white Republicans worked for “majority-minority” districts. Why Republicans? Packing black populations so that they are a ______. Leaves other districts “whiter” and more likely to produce Republicans. Democratic legislatures have tried to diminish majority-minority districts (get them to share black voters) to help the party win more victories. BUT, the victors would not likely be black. What is better for black Americans?
Courts have ruled that race can no longer be the predominant or controlling factor in redistricting. VI. Political Influences on Turnout A. Election Excitement 1) voter ____ – Americans vote more often than anyone else. Primaries, separated system, nat’l, state, county, city… 2) Campaign intensity – arouses party loyalties and gets them to polls (nonpartisan local elections have lower turnout levels). B. Election competitiveness – turnout higher where parties and candidates are competitive (evenly win). Two-party states, higher turnout than one party states. C. Representativeness of Party System – Two-party systems have lower turnout. Why? Perhaps multiparty systems produce more voter _____ as they vote positively (for their own party) rather than
Negatively (against the lesser of two evils). VII. Turnout: Individual Differences A. Socioeconomic status (biggest factors) – lower SES, especially education levels, depress turnout. B. Youth – young people less likely than any other age category (18 -35). ____th amendment expanded # eligible, but not # voting. C. Gender and race – no difference for _______, black differences associated with different lower SES status. D. Social Connectedness – more social ties (church, community organization), more likely to vote. E. Personal Costs – rain, ballot complexity, waiting in lines
F. Political Attitudes – more politically interested and more partisan/ideological, more likely to vote. Senses of: 1) Political Efficacy – “gov’t is responsive to public” 2) Trust in Gov’t (to do right) 3) Civic duty VIII. Recent Decline 1960 – 63%; 1996 – ____% (Pres) and 45% - 38% (midterm) A. Puzzle – many factors should have improved it. Education up, registration costs ____, overall SES up, ballots are easier to cast/understand. B. Explanation 1. Political attitudes supporting turnout down (alienation, trust). 2. Partisanship strength _____.
3. 4. IX. A. Voter mobility up Social connectedness down Impact of electorate/turnout changes New enfranchised voters reshaped parties. Blacks have moved to the Democrats and changed that party’s image and interests as they respond accordingly. Democratic behavior indicates that politicians lose interest in ______. B. Turnout rates – conventional wisdom says that bigger electorates/turnout rates are better for Dems. Explains why Dems push for more turnout (nonvoters come from groups inclined towards Dems). However, both parties have pushed for turnout because individual candidates/issues attract new voters more than “broad invitations. ”
I. II. A. III. A. B. Chapter 9 How Parties Choose Candidates Intro – The American nomination systems (_____ primary) is unique. Elsewhere, candidates remain selected by party _____ and elected officials, not voters. Evolution of the Nomination Process Originally, candidates selected by party caucuses, then conventions. Then, Progressive reformers successfully pushed for a greater voice over candidate selection. Types of Primaries Closed – (majority of states). Requires permanent record of voter’s party affiliation. Open – (20 states). Voters can vote in ______ primary and do not have their party-ballot recorded.
*LA – “unitary primary” If any candidate wins a majority in the primary, then they immediately win the general election. If nobody gets a majority, the top two vote getters (regardless of party) runoff in the general. D. Raiding – strategic (disingenuous) voting in a primary to influence other party’s _______. IV. Impact of the Direct Primary Have the hopes of the Progressives been realized? A. More democratic? 1. More people participate in the primaries than they did in caucuses or conventions. Opens candidate selection process up to _____, not leaders. 2. But, turnout is really low (low interest and frequently unopposed candidates); costs of another election _____ candidates (fewer choices).
So, appears most democratic in competitive races, especially when no incumbent is running. B. Hurts Party Organization? YES: Divisive primaries (candidates/intraparty factions hurt one another); more money and voter mobilization is required; party discipline _____ (can’t withhold nomination) most importantly, “when a party organization cannot choose who will carry the party label…, the party has been ______ of one of its key resources. ” However, it has not necessarily hurt parties in general. The party in government and electorate have gained power and influence and visibility
Chapter 10 Choosing Presidential Nominees I. Intro – (p. 174) process of selecting Presidential nominees. First primary, 1905. Real growth began in 1968. By 1980 s, a decisive majority of convention delegates were selected by primary elections. II. What sparked reforms (i. e. , nominee should reflect state voter preferences)? A. Turbulence in Democratic Primary. 1. Reform voices objected to the party leader’s choice of Hubert Humphrey as VP when state primaries indicated otherwise. 2. DNC leaders felt compelled to change procedure.
3. B. 1. 2. 3. III. A. State parties/legislatures followed Presidential Primaries Today Popular vote determines how state delegates are apportioned among candidates. The names of candidates appear on the ballots (reform), and the candidates or their agents, typically select the members of their own delegates slates. Now, most states use primaries and thus more and more convention delegates are from primary states (Table 10. 1). National Conventions Roots. 1832 effort to keep Henry _______ from winning VP. Leaders pushed for convention for nominations. No longer did congressional caucuses determine who nominees would be.
B. Purpose 1. Approving Platform – statement of party positions on a wide range of issues. However, they are often moderated by an interest to satisfy intraparty factions. Yet, they still define the differences between parties. In recent years, platforms between the Reps and Dems have moved farther ____ on cultural issues especially (p. 192). 2. Formalizing the Presidential Nomination – essentially ________ now. Nominees are presented. Then, the secretary calls the roll of the states. Head delegates announce their state’s vote totals. 3. Launching Pres Campaign – Most nominees get a poll _____ after convention. IV. Who are the Delegates?
A. Demographically, delegates are affluent and well-educated compared to others. Dems use affirmative-action to ______ representation of women and minorities. Reps are less representative, but not by much (see Table 10. 2) and not by AA. B. Politically, a majority are long time activists. A _____ hold party offices. C. Ideologically, More _____. Dem and Rep delegates are more liberal/conservative than Dem/Rep voters typically are (way out of line? Table 10. 3). Layman’s study.
• • A. B. 1. 2. Chapter 11 General Election Intro – The General Election follows the primaries. Here, voters select between nominees of the different parties. Elections: The Rules of the Game The Secret Ballot (Australian Ballot) – Voting in secret. Before this reform began in 1890 s, party leaders made sure that voters made good on their end of the deal (vote for material good). By _______, all states reformed. Format of Ballot Office-Bloc Ballots (typical) – candidates grouped according to respective office (alternative = partycolumn ballot). Greater ______ for splitticketing. Order of candidate names – appearing first helps
chances. Some state randomly assign order; others place incumbents name 1 st. 3. Long Ballot – typically US voters face lengthy ballots. Offices and in many places, issues (referenda) appear. Encourages “roll-off” voting on minor offices and referenda. C. Voting Systems – • Technological method of voting matters. Recounts showed in 2000 that ___% (1. 5 mill) failed to vote for president or voted for two candidates. These “undervotes” could be intentional, but are related to voting method (especially punch-cards). • Ballot Construction – can be confusing to some (“butterfly” p. 195). Computerized ballots may ______ some voters. D. Election Calendars – The timing of an election matters. Voters may show up for a top-ticket candidate and vote for that candidate’s party
down the ticket (called the “coattail” effect). III. Election Laws and their Effects (congressional elections) A. Redistricting – Partisan redistricting through gerrymandering has remained typical of the majority party in the state legislature (they draw the lines but need governor’s approval). Courts have not really _____ it. They must not draw lines, however, that are “malapportioned” in terms of population. B. Effect has not been seriously helpful after the first few years (with the exception of majority-minority districts). IV. Campaigning in the New Millennium A. Methods of persuasion – Television single _______ used method for high offices. 30 -60 second spots have changed traditional campaign messages (long, detailed, substantive) into quick
catchy soundbites emphasizing how something is said and not what. Candidates want free media coverage too. So, they tend to do/say things that will attract media attention (read p. 202). B. Negative Campaigns - when campaigns _____, candidates are expected to go negative to catch up. Research suggests that negative campaigning works up until a point, then it backfires (graph). C. Do Campaigns Matter (effect outcome)? 1. Yes: Door-to-door canvassing has more influence than telephone calls. Party activism appears to enhance their party’s vote share some. Lots of potential too: ____% say that they pay some attention to campaign news on TV (lots of exposure). _______ elections may demonstrate greater effect.
2. No: People still vote predominately on the basis of factors that ____ the campaign; especially PID, but also group ties, and economic conditions. Voters’ interpretation of campaign news and events is typically conditioned by these predispositions. That is, they pick and ignore messages according to _____ beliefs and opinions.
Part 3: Party in Government Chapter 13 (Parties in Congress and State Legislatures I. A. B. C. II. A. Intro Party Role in Congress – tied to the central workings of Congress and state legs, yet commonly find members crossing party lines The executive and government leaders in a Parliamentary system retain positions only with the approval of a majority party in the legislature. Creates powerful pressure for legislative party to remain united. Here, less pressure. Yet, lately we see high levels of party competition and higher levels of partisan behavior among legislators. Organization of Legislative Parties Party Organization in Congress
1. Party Caucuses/Conferences nominate candidates, set up procedures for appointing speaker/president pro temp, select their leaders, structure the chamber (committees). Congress itself is organized greatly around the decisions of these meetings. 2. Organization is ______ by the majority party. Manage floor action, chooses chairs of committees, dominates committees (majorities). So important, that Jim Jeffords decision to become independent was critical in 2001 (50 -50 tie in Senate). B. Changes in House Party Leaders Power 1. First decades of 1900 s, legislative power concentrated in hands of Speaker (chaired the Rules committee, solely appointed chairs). Reform in _____ (response to Joe Cannon) and since, Speakers have become brokers rather than czars. 2. Growing Party Coordination (influence of institutional structure) – 1970 s liberals successfully pushed for reform of
how committee chairs are selected (voted in rather than automatically given to most senior majority party member). They also wanted more power handed to party leaders (and away from institutionally powerful individuals like Southern Dems) via Steering and Policy Committees (committee assignments). C. Party Leadership – reforms gave majority party a new power to work for policy goals headed strongly by party leaders. Party Cartel Theory, explaining reforms: Dilemma for MCs = getting legislators to ignore personal goals that come at the expense of party goals (i. e. , over-production of particularistic benefits like pork and under-production of collective benefits like major party legislation). To solve dilemma, MCs delegate authority to party leaders, who in turn promote the collective interests of party members and use power to punish/reward deviant members.
D. E. 1. 2. III. A. Gingrich, Republicans won in 1994, gave Gingrich unprecedented power to do what is necessary to retain Republican majority. He failed (declining popularity, outparty losing seats in midterm). Parties in the Senate - characterized as “individualist” Has moved towards individually powerful body. a. Filibuster increase b. Rider or Non-germane amendments increase To get things done and avoid these individualist tools, party leaders must work with their members and the opposition in order to pass “unanimous ______ agreements” to structure floor debate. So, leaders in Senate can not command obedience as in the House. Party Influence over MCs Hard to control MCs here. Can’t remove them; perhaps remove them from _______ (but Phil Gramm). “As long as legislative party leaders cannot keep a party maverick from being renominated and reelected…
party influence will be limited. ” B. Short list of punishments/rewards: committee assignment, office space, bill support (agenda too), promote pork in district, electoral support, CCCs (campaign money) C. Party Voting and Cohesion 1. Party Votes - % roll calls on which a majority of one party votes in opposition to a majority of the other party. 1990 s, produces highest levels in years (69% 1995). Southern Dems are most deviant (p. 254). In state legislatures, we are most likely to see high party voting in 2 -party competitive states. 2. Party Cohesion - % of legislators who vote for their party’s position (majority/leadership). On the rise for 30 years; due greatly to the disappearance of the “conservative coalition” (Southern Democrats). See p. 256. IV. When are Parties Most United? Three places: 1) issues touching interests of legislative party 2) issues involving _______ policy agenda 3) issues that divide party voters.
A. Issues touching legislative parties - these are issues that generally determine chamber rules and procedures (e. g. , who the Speaker of the House is). B. Executive’s Proposals – parties have become more united in their support/opposition to President’s policy agenda (p. 258 graph; 80% support pres of their own party today up from 60% in 60 s). C. Issues Central to Party System – More _____ on polices that affect each party’s coalition. We find that party cohesion is greatest during realignment (when coalition support groups are clearly known). V. When Constituency Interferes with Party Unity Party unity is always subject to ______ preferences. If the choice is between constituents and party, most legislators choose constituents. “As long as American parties cannot protect legislators from constituency pressures” and as long as a Dem in AL is different than a Dem in NY, party cohesion will suffer. VI. Comparing Party Power in Congress and State legislatures
A. Greater Political Homogeneity in states – greater party unity reflects common interests, values, culture, ideologies. Fewer sources of internal conflict. B. No Competing Centers of Power – seniority is not as formidable in state legislatures. People don’t stay as long (less desirable). So state parties are freer to appoint their loyalists (and enhance discipline; more institutional power). C. Stronger Party Organization – State party organizations are more influential over legislative parties than national counterparts (more influence). State legislative campaigns more dependent on party organizations for money and campaign help. D. Less Professionalized – MCs have larger budgets and staffs (more independent). State legislators are lucky to have an office and secretary. “The labor that a party leader can provide to help perform the tasks of legislative life, then, can be very valuable” (i. e. , influential).
1. 2. 3. Quiz What is your name? On what basis were committee chairs determined before the reforms of 1970 s? a. Party Leadership b. Vote of Committee Membership c. Seniority d. Presidential appointment What is the Party Vote Measure? a. % of congressional votes where a majority of each party vote against one another b. % of legislators who vote with their party’s leadership on a piece of legislation. c. % of legislators who vote with the President’s party
Chapter 14 (Party in the Executive and Courts) I. Intro - Partisan Courts A. Courts are supposed to be insulated institutionally from partisan politics. 1. Appointed, not elected 2. Tenure – life (not subject to reappointment) 3. Judicial Review (no direct challenge) B. Florida Supreme Ct and U. S. Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore voted straight down party lines. C. Questions: What difference does it make? Is it the party organization or party beliefs that influence judges?
II. A. 1. B. 1. 2. C. 1. Presidents and Governors as Party Leader as Representative of Whole Constituency President represents the only true national constituency. HR and Senate are particularistic and over represent the rural areas of the country. The states that dominate the President’s are the large, urban, industrial states (with big cities; most electoral votes). Party Leader as Organizational Leader President’s take their role as party leader _______ (spend time raising money for other candidates). WH can persuade potential candidates to run or challenge when the party org leaders can not (e. g. , WH dinners) Party Leader as Electoral Leader Coattail Effects – Pres is at the top of the ticket and sometimes (at least in the past) helps candidates of the President’s party down the ticket. This is on the _______ however. Congressmen are more insulated from outside electoral forces (like Presidential Popularity) than in the past.
2. Negative Effects of Coattail – midterm elections: • President’s party loses seats in midterm congressional elections. Why? Weak point of presidential popularity is midterm or simply due to the absence of a coat to grab on to (no coattails). III. Traces of Party in the Courts A. Intro – partisan politics predates appointment (p. 288) B. Judicial Voting Along Party Lines – Studies show: 1. Democratic judges – more likely to decide for _______ in criminal cases, gov’t in tax cases, agencies in regulation of business, and claimants in worker’s comp, unemployment, and auto accidents. 2. U. S. District Ct. judges – more likely to uphold plans of their own party than opposition party plans.
3. Why? Probably more to do with personal partisan beliefs than party organization influence. C. Party Considerations in Judicial Appointments. 1. Federal Judges – Every American President appoints judges almost exclusively form his own party (Table 14. 1; p. 291). Reagan and Bush appointees were more conservative than Clinton appointees were liberal. Also, Senate confirmation hearings more partisan beginning with Dem opposition to Robert _____ in 1980 s. Recently, so bad that Republicans (majority) refused to schedule debates on Clinton nominations and Dems (minority) have filibustered to prevent debate on Bush nominations. 2. State Court Judges: 5 different systems of selection: • Governors appoint (___) • State legislatures appoint (5) • Partisan elections (13)
• Non partisan elections (14) • “Missouri” or Merit plan (12) – first selected by governor from list compiled by nonpartisan screening committee. Then, must run in a retention election within a few years of service. If they win, they serve out the term.
Chapter 15 (Semi-Responsible Parties) I. Intro – Bush vouchers: even when a party controls both branches, it still can’t always deliver the party’s promises (which are not extreme). Good or bad? A. Reformers say this is bad and that parties need to be more “responsible. ” Ideally, the governing party would communicate and enact a clear, ____ political philosophy and program. They would then be held retrospectively accountable for the results. B. A ______ form of responsible party reform is simply to get parties to be ideologically distinct (present a clearer choice to voters); instead of there being not “a dimes worth of difference” (Wallace). Goal for both: Voters Party platform Polices Reaction
II. Case for Responsible Party Gov’t Usually, the case for RPs comes from a desire that government be stronger, with a strong executive, able to solve social and economic problems. Fragmented (internally divisive) parties makes a weak government only weaker. They argue that voting in our system is meaningless as an accountability mechanism. If parties are not willing/able/expected to hold officials accountable to the party platform, then voters can’t hold either parties or politicians accountable either and various interest groups will dominate gov’t. A. How would party gov’t (Responsible Parties) work? 1. Each party draws up clear and specific philosophy and platform and programs. 2. Parties would nominate only candidates loyal to and willing to enact the party plan. 3. Campaigns would be clear presentations/communications of the party plan so voters can know the differences in plans and expectations.
Party willfully hold politicians responsible to plan. Voters could the evaluate the results. B. Main focus of parties – party platform, policies, plan, presentation, not winning elections (not an end, but a means). In practice, all elected branches would have to controlled by same party (easier in nonseparated system). C. Why parties? (p. 283 quote). More democratic than groups because parties better able to represent _______. Isn’t that more democratic? III. Case Against Party Gov’t A. It would increase conflict – Our system features bipartisanship and compromise. Legislators could not represent constituencies and groups and personal judgment, but only parties. B. It Wouldn’t Work in American Politics – Separation of Powers, Federalism, voters 1. Divided Government – Voters, since _______, have typically enacted divided government (opposing party control of each branch; p. 285) for national AND state gov’ts. 4.
Why? Cause: More split-ticket voting – RP impossible under DG. By definition in DG, enacted policy is a result of compromise, not the success of one party over the other. But if both parties are influencing policy, how can voters hold one party _______ for results? Effects: Many assert that our system, which allows for DG, produces policy stagnation, ineffective and unresponsive gov’ts (unable to solve major problems promptly). Others say that unified gov’t is no more responsive or prompt and that American voters may prefer DG: • Party Balance Theory • Local Elections Local Concerns Theory 2. Federalism: state politics are ______ and pose another threat to majority party control nationally. 3. Voters: not issue-oriented enough, too diverse, party distrust
IV. Temporary RP/Gingrich – Contract with America: “If we break this contract, throw us out. ” Also, HR operated like a RP. But, DG existed, Senate did not completely go along. Voters did not clearly appreciate dominance (Reps lost votes/seats in 1996 and Clinton won again). V. Semi-Responsible Parties: Party Cohesion and Ideology – couldn’t we at least move our parties in the RP direction by making them more ________? A. American Parties and Ideology 1. Parties do not offer clear consistent positions (straight answers) to major political questions like they do in other democracies (Libertarians, Socialists, Muslim Fundamentalists). 2. U. S. Parties are more _______ than principled or ideological. B. Do they at Least Offer Clear Choices? More and more. 1. Platforms more distinct on specific policies (pp. 288 -289). More ideologically distinct/predictable on these.
Civil Rights, cultural issues, and conservatism among Republicans (Reagan) are serving to distinguish and unify parties more and more. C. But Internal Variations Remain 1. Still, parties permit their leaders and followers to affiliate with parties having passed no ideological “litmus test” 2. Parties still internally divided – cultural and economic conservatives among Republicans. Labor, minorities, poor, civil libertarians, cultural liberals, among Dems. VI. Ideology and Voters A. How Ideological is the American Public? 1. Most can’t be clearly classified as ideological. Attitudes vary from issue to issue and are inconsistent (tax/spend). 2. Voters tend to be pragmatic (results-oriented), not fixed irreversibly to an ideologically consistent position. 3. So, parties and candidates try to use generic or ambiguous language in order to maximize their appeal.
They stress the “candidate’s personal characteristics, group interests, single issues, and feelings toward the party in power – bur rarely by use ideological appeals” as a primary campaign message. B. Dilemma of Ideology – where do we find ideologues? 1. Upper SES 2. Among activists • sometimes party voters closer to other party voters than their own party activists • Dilemma for candidates: side with activists alienates voters; side with voters alienates ______. So, ambiguity. So, if parties become more distinct (polarized), they run the risk of losing their appeal to a sizable moderate (stay in the middle; moving away presents opportunity for other party to steal voters).
VII. A. B. C. When is Party Gov’t Most Likely? When There is Strong Presidential Leadership – keeps party in line. Yet, this is presidential gov’t, not party gov’t. When he is gone, so is RP. In times of crisis – 1936 Dems and Reps very distinct in their plans/responses to depression. Yet, does not work well with external crises. Parties rather unified around Bush after 9/11. During Party Realignments – parties divide more clearly just after ________ when everyone in the party is most agreeable and most opposed to other party. Still, even here, party coalitions “have never been sufficiently united in a set of common principles to be able to overcome the institutional forces – federalism and separation of powers – that tend to disunite them. ”
VIII. Summary points – Again, RP says that “when parties stand for clear principles and voters are offered clear choices in elections, it is easier for citizens to hold gov’t responsible for the policies it produces. That may make for a stronger and more vibrant democracy. ” A. American parties are not ideological parties like Europe. But, look more like them lately. 1. Congressional parties, and lesser extent parties in electorate, more distinct and cohesive. 2. Nat’l party orgs ________ than ever, and becoming more ideologically distinct (remember CWs). B. Yet, American parties still long way to go. To really be held “responsible” as parties, they must distinguish themselves in predictable ideological ways to voters. Not really possible: 1. Candidates run separate from parties, self-recruited, unaccountable to parties. 2. Separation of powers, federalism.
Republicanism in the South Lecture Why the rise in Republican strength (PID and vote choice) in the South since 1960 s (1960 -2000 GOP strength rose from 11% to 51%? • Civil Rights Reaction (passage of VRA); Black mobilization within Democratic Party • South caught up in the larger religious orthodox and evangelical political movement to the Republican party (disproportionately high number of evangelicals in South) • In/Out migration: increase of Republican minded migrants and exit of Southern Blacks. • Republican Party Organization Growth/Competitiveness (more resources) • SES increasing in the South (higher SES, higher Rep tendency) MS: Elected first Republican governor (Fordice); State Senate went from 96% Dem in 1970 to 65% Dem in 2000 and 99% Dem to 73% Dem in 2000 for the state HR.
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