CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index May 2012 CFA

CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index May 2012

CFA Institute is a global, not-for-profit organization comprising the world’s largest association of investment professionals n With over 100, 000 members, and regional societies around the world, CFA Institute is dedicated to developing and promoting the highest educational, ethical, and professional standards in the investment industry n

“Though the finance industry absorbs many with Masters degrees in Business Administration and finance degrees, the Chartered Financial Analyst qualification, pursued parttime by those already hired, has become the industry’s benchmark. ” Financial Times, 2009

“Whereas there are tens of thousands of finance degrees available around the world, ranging from the excellent to the worthless, there is only one CFA… explosive growth has made it, in effect, global currency. ” -The Economist, 2005

Sentiment indexes n Used to measure consumers, investors or managers’ expectations regarding future economic activity n Types: ¨ Consumer confidence ¨ Economic activity ¨ Investor sentiment

Consumer confidence index n Designed to measure consumer confidence defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending Consumer Confidence Index issued by the Conference Board (US) n University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) n

Economic activity index n Designed to measure managers’ expectations regarding future economic activity in industry and services Institute for Supply Management – Purchasing Managers’ Index (US) n ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (Germany, EU) n

Investors sentiment indicator n Designed to measure institutional investors’ and financial analysts’ expectations on future economic activity Sentix Market Sentiment (global) n Swiss ZEW Investor Sentiment Index n

CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index Aim n To evaluate financial analysts expectation regarding economic activity in Romania for one year horizon

Objectives To create a new tool for assessing economic expectations in Romania n To become a benchmark in the market regarding the expectations on Romanian economic activity n To create a platform for exchange of ideas and opinions and for educating the public on economic and financial issues n

Target CFA Romania members n Level II and Level III CFA exam candidates n n Aprox. 350 participants

Timing n Survey of expectations in the last 5 working days of each month n Release in first week of next month

Presentation Current conditions n Expectations n Confidence indicator (summarizing the two above-mentioned indicators) n n Values between 0 and 100 (100 - highest confidence, 0 – lowest confidence, 50 neutral)

Macroeconomic Confidence Index Qualitative questions (increase/decrease/remain the same) for: n Current conditions n ¨ Business conditions ¨ Labor market n Expectations (one year horizon) for ¨ Business conditions ¨ Labor market ¨ Economy-wide personal income ¨ Personal wealth

Financial markets expectations Inflation rate n Interest rates n EUR/RON exchange rate n Stock market index n Global macroeconomic conditions n Oil price n

Values

Thank you !