Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica EURO

Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica EURO LM - Case studies Langen, 8 th March 2006 LT. Col. Teodoro La Rocca, Maj. Alessandro Fuccello

CONTENT 1 th Case-study: Confluence Lines situation (3 October 2005) 2 nd Case-study: Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) (21 October 2005) 3 rd Case-study: Tropopause anomaly Cyclogenesis ( 23 February 2006) over Jonian Sea

Cold Front Confluence lines 1 st Case-study Confluence Lines situation FI by jet (3 October 2005) Confluence lines

FI by jet Comma Confluence lines Interpretation of precipitations (EURO-LM Model) Based on Conceptual Models

Low rainfall overestimation EURO-LM locates well FI by jet High precipitation overestimation due to orographic effect. Model dynamic is good Strong convection line produces heavy rain well forecsted in intensity but not so in the space Dynamics very good (Cold Front and pre-frontal Confluence Lines ) Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours

HRV VIS at 07 utc 2 nd case - study Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) (21 October 2005) HRV VIS at 12 utc HRV VIS at 15 utc

T+12 T+15 T+18 21 OCTOBER 00 UTC Num. FC: Wind and pressure distribution

MCSs Interpretation of precipitations Based on Conceptual Models

Rainfall overstimation Dynamics good (MCS) but evolution and path were wrong Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours

3 rd case - study (23 February 2006) Tropopause anomaly Cyclogenesis over Jonian Sea

Heavy rain Forecasted Over Mid-adriatic Area, Calabria and Eastern Sicily

22 February 2006 – EURO LM

23 February 2006 – EURO LM

Rainfall Observed Over Mid-adriatic Area (good estimation) Calabria and Eastern Sicily (over-estimation)

CONCLUSIONS • Test case – studies discussed indicate good performances in EURO LM and LAMI precipitation forecasts related to dynamic synoptic patterns. • Problems arise in case of rainfall due to Mesoscale convective activity, mainly in the location of precipitation area. • Conceptual models seem to be promising for the interpretation and for the discussion of the results obtained by LM.

Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica QUESTIONS ? PLEASE, CONTACT LT. Col Teodoro LA ROCCA larocca@meteoam. it Maj. Alessandro FUCCELO fuccello@meteoam. it