Census ac uk Introduction to international migration data

Census. ac. uk Introduction to international migration data Oliver Duke-Williams Adam Dennett

Census. ac. uk Presentation Outline Ø International migration - definitions Ø An overview of main, freely available, global international migration datasets Ø Introduction to census international migration datasets Ø Conclusions

Deaths and acquisition of UN: “the crossing of the boundary citizenship make it difficult of a political or administrative unit to compare stocks to for a certain minimum period of estimate flows, although time” data on both exist for some flow / t n Flows countries… eve feed into stock data, but estimating flows n o i t a from stocks not straight forward… not simply a Migr matter of: flow = stock t – stock t-1 Census. ac. uk Migrants who remain in their new countries form migrant ‘Stocks’ - these data are usually collected through censuses or registers. Stocks updated by new data or demographic models and more widely available than flow data Flow data record origins and destinations of migrants over a defined period (1 yr, 5 yr etc. ) - globally poor quality/limited availability. Issues of comparability – are all migrants ‘migrants’? 2000 2002 2001 2004 2003 Timeline 2005 2 types of stock data: a) Foreign born by country of birth b) Foreign born by country of nationality/citizenship Both not available for all countries Temporal availability varied also 2006 2008 2007 2009

Census. ac. uk Migrant Stocks – UN Data Ø Global migrant stock data are collected regularly by the United Nations – empirical data available through: Ø United Nations Global Migration Database v. 0. 3. 6 Ø http: //esa. un. org/unmigration/ Ø Registration required Ø Stocks by Origin/Destination + time series

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Census. ac. uk Migrant Stocks – UN Data Ø UN has further data available without the need to register: Ø http: //esa. un. org/migration/ Ø Data from latest (2008) revision of international migration stock including some estimates Ø http: //esa. un. org/Mig. Age/ Ø Same data disaggregated by age and sex

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250, 000 3. 15 3. 1 200, 000 150, 000 3 2. 95 100, 000 2. 9 50, 000 2. 85 - 2. 8 1990 1995 2000 Source: http: //esa. un. org/migration/ 2005 2010 % of total population 3. 05 Total Migrants Census. ac. uk So, what do we know? Global Migration – foreign born Migrants Female Migs Male Migs Refugees Migs as % of population

14 12 % distribution of international migrants Census. ac. uk % distribution of international migrants by age and sex 10 8 More Developed Regions Less Developed Regions 6 Least Developed Regions 4 2 0 '0 -4' '5 -9' '10 -14''15 -19''20 -24''25 -29''30 -34''35 -39''40 -44''45 -49''50 -54''55 -59''60 -64' '65+'

Census. ac. uk Sussex Global migrant origin stock database Ø Foreign Born Ø Foreign National Work by team at Sussex has estimated full 226 x 226 O/D stock matrix (2004)

Census. ac. uk Sussex – Global Migrant Origin Database Ø Tables from the Development Research Centre on Migration (University of Sussex) global migrant origin database (based on data from 2000 -02 census rounds – UN Stocks, 2005 revision). Ø Global Migrant National Ø Global Migrant Origin Database v 1 - Foreign Born & Foreign Origin Database v 2 - Foreign Born & Foreign Origin Database v 3 - Foreign Born & Foreign Origin Database v 4 Ø Migrant stock data - versions have increasingly greater numbers of cells filled with modelled and estimated data – v 4 full matrix 227/227 OD stocks. Ø http: //www. migrationdrc. org/research/typesofmigrati on/global_migrant_origin_database. html

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Census. ac. uk Migrant Flows – Cohen et al. Ø Cohen, J. , Roig, M. , Reuman, D. , and Go. Gwilt, C. (2008), 'International migration beyond gravity: a statistical model for use in population projections', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105 (40), 15269 -74. Ø Time series flow data 228 Origins to 195 Destinations – 1960 -2004 Ø Data collated from 11 countries – very sparse matrix, but unique collection of data Ø http: //www. pnas. org/content/105/40/15269/ suppl/DCSupplemental

Census. ac. uk Eurostat – Flow and Stock data Ø New Cronos database Ø Data on International (extra-Europe and intra -Europe) immigration and emigration (country of birth, country of previous residence and country of citizenship) Ø Comprehensive in scope (all international origins possible – national and sub-national data) but patchy in coverage Ø Time series back to 1998 in many instances Ø Stock data AND flow data are available to download

Census. ac. uk Ø Database is continually updated with new datasets http: //epp. eurostat. ec. europa. eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Census. ac. uk European flow data – MIMOSA, IMEM Ø Issues of incomplete data and data harmonisation (flows reported by origin do not often match those reported by destination) – need to reconcile differences and estimate gaps Ø MIMOSA European migration flow data estimates – 2002 -2007. 31 X 31 intercountry flow matrices for Europe Ø http: //mimosa. gedap. be/ Ø IMEM – current project looking to improve upon earlier MIMOSA work Ø http: //www. norfacemigration. org/currentprojectdetail. php? proj =3

Census. ac. uk OECD stock and flow data Ø http: //stats. oecd. org Ø 28 OECD country destinations x full list global origins Ø Database: Øimmigrants in OECD countries Øinternational migration stock and flow Ø Data freely available online

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Census. ac. uk OECD stock and flow data Ø Data in OECD database collected as part of the Continuous Reporting System on Migration (SOPEMI) – these data have not been harmonised internationally Ø Data on international migration flows for the UK delivered to SOPEMI are derived from the Labour Force Survey Ø A sample of only around 300, 000 people annually

Census. ac. uk International Census data? Ø Whilst regular, Labour Force Surveys are relatively small samples and are generally not imperfect for reliable national analyses (huge variation in numbers due to weighting for e. g. ) Ø Various national statistical agencies collect data on international migration data in censuses and population registers Ø Little work had been carried out on collecting and collating this data until recently… Ø Team at Vienna working on this now – watch this space… Ø http: //www. oeaw. ac. at/vid/

Census. ac. uk International migration in UK Censuses Ø Area Statistics Ø Samples of Anonymised Records Ø Special Migration Statistics

Census. ac. uk Area Statistics Ø 1991 ØMigrants from outside GB Ø 2001 ØMigrants from overseas tabulated in Standard Tables ØAll from ‘outside UK’ by age, sex, household structure Ø ‘Lifetime migration’ from country of birth

Census. ac. uk Samples of Anonymised Records Ø 1991 SARs: Origin outside GB Ø 2001 SARs: Origin outside UK Ø 2011 SARs: Origin outside UK (? )

Census. ac. uk Special Migration Statistics Ø SMS produced from 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses ØSimilar data from 2011 expected Ø Tabulate flows from all origins to all destinations

Census. ac. uk 1981 SMS Ø 92 foreign origins Ø 10, 000+ wards of residence Ø Migrants by sex

Census. ac. uk 1981 SMS continued Ø ‘Foreign origins’ include ØComponent parts of British Isles ØDistinct countries ØGroups of countries ØRegional / continental remainders Ø‘Rest of world’, ‘Elsewhere’ ØIncludes some non-specific cases Øeg ‘Ireland – part not stated’

Census. ac. uk 1991 SMS Ø 98 foreign origins ØAgain, a mix of different things Ø 10, 000 wards as destinations Ø Available attributes vary by scale ØAt ward level: age & sex ØAt district level: marital status, ethnic group, LLTI, economic position, tenure, Welsh and Gaelic speakers ØBut, subject to suppression

Census. ac. uk 2001 SMS Ø In standard SMS, only ‘Origin outside UK’ ØAvailable down to OA level, but heavily affected by Small Cell Adjustment ØAttribute detail varies with destination geography OA Ward District Age [3] * sex Age [16] * sex Age [24] * sex Family status * sex Ethnic group [7†] * sex LLTI * whether in hhld * age * sex Economic activity * sex Knowledge of Welsh/Gaelic/Irish * age * sex Ethnic group [2] * sex Individual level attribute data

Census. ac. uk 2001 C 0711 Ø One of a set of many commissioned tables Ø Consists of 3 sections Ø C 0711 B gives Ø 58 foreign origins (usual mix) Ø 367 district level destinations ØEngland Wales only ØPersons by ethnic group [7 categories] ØSuffers from SCAM effects

Census. ac. uk Comparison of three Censuses Ø What patterns do we see? Ø Which countries can be consistently compared? Ø Do the data mean the same thing?

Census. ac. uk 1991: all foreign origins Total persons All origins 13 - 373 374 - 1004 1005 - 2616 2617 - 9517 Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 1991: migrants from Republic of Ireland Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 1991: migrants from West Germany Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 1991: migrants from all foreign origins Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 1991: migrants from USA and Australia Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 1991: migrants from Israel Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 1991: migrants from Nigeria and Uganda Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 1991: migrants from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh Source: 1991 Census Special Migration Statistics (Great Britain)

Census. ac. uk 2001 Migrants from all foreign origins Source: 2001 Census Commissioned output C 0711

Census. ac. uk 2001 Migrants from France Source: 2001 Census Commissioned output C 0711

Census. ac. uk 2001 Migrants from Pakistan Source: 2001 Census Commissioned output C 0711

Census. ac. uk Which countries can be consistently compared? Ø There are 36 countries which appear as origins in all three Censuses ØLabelling varies in some cases – possible changes? ØEg “France” v “France inc. Monaco” ØPolitical status of many countries has changed (e. g. Membership of EU)

Census. ac. uk Ever-present countries Ø Europe Ø Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland Ø Middle East Ø Turkey, Cyprus, Israel Ø Africa Ø Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Zimbabwe Ø North America / Caribbean Ø USA, Canada, Jamaica Ø Asia Ø India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka Ø China†, Hong Kong, Japan, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore Ø Australasia Ø Australia, New Zealand

Census. ac. uk Do the data mean the same thing? Ø Changes in base population Ø Changes in country status Ø Differential handling of unstated origins

Census. ac. uk Conclusions Ø Global sources of international migration data are sparse, with matrices of stocks and flows sparser still Ø Freely available data do exist, but with a number limitations on top of matrix sparseness: varying definitions, limited time-series, unreliable survey sources, origin/destination harmonisation etc.

Census. ac. uk Conclusions Ø The 1991 data provide detailed flows Ø The 2001 data are heavily affected by SCAM ØAn alternative commissioned set would be useful Ø It will be important to make sure that outputs from the 2011 are of higher quality