Case Study The 1995 Kobe Japan Earthquake Plate
Case Study: The 1995 Kobe, Japan Earthquake
Plate Tectonic Setting
MERCALLI DESTRUCTION MAP
Building on Liquefied Sediment
KOBE SEISMOGRAMS Solid Bedrock Water Saturated Sediments
Damage To Buildings
Damage to Infrastructure: Roads, Trains, Water, Sewer, etc.
Damage to the Pier
POWER OUTAGE
Damage to Sewage Treatment Plants
FIRE!
HOW CAN SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION LESSEN THE LOSS OF LIFE AND PROPERTY? 1) UNDERSTANDING HAZARD AND RISK 2) IS IT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT EARTHQUAKES? Hazard – The actual physical Dangers associated with an Earthquake. Shaking, Building Collapse, Fire, Liquefaction of sediment, Tsunami. Geologists study hazards to understand: Risk – The probability of loss of life and/or property. Engineers and Public Officials make planning decisions to mitigate (lessen) risk.
HAZARDS
TSUNAMI
To Lessen Risk Scientists Must Be Able To Predict Earthquake Occurrences Two Types of Predictions: 1) Long Term – What is the probability of having a certain magnitude quake within a specified time interval? 2) Short Term – An earthquake will occur in the next 24 hours. Relocate.
1) Long Term Earthquake Prediction: Syntheses of Geologic and Historical Information a) Plate Tectonic Setting & General Fault Activity b) Bedrock Type – Controls Wave Amplification
1. c) Historical Records – 2. San Francisco, 1906
1. d) Paleoseimology – a prehistoric record of earthquakes
Seismic Hazard Maps
Conditional Probability
SEISMIC GAPS
SHORT TERM PREDICTION?
- Slides: 37